쇠고기·돼지고기 수급구조 분석 및 정책 시뮬레이션 모형 개발

Abstract

소비자물가 안정의 중요성과 필요성에 대한 인식이 확대되면서 축산물의 가격안정을 위한 효과적인 정책 대안 마련에 대한 요구가 높아지고 있다. 축산물은 전체 물가에서 차지하는 비중이 매우 작지만 생필품이라 구입 빈도가 높고 수급상 단기변동이 많아 소비자가 느끼는 물가 체감도는 작지 않은 것으로 인식되고 있다. 축산물가격의 불안정은 가축질병 발생 등으로 인한 수급변화뿐만 아니라 불합리한 유통구조도 그 원인으로 자주 거론되고 있다. 축산물 가격안정을 위해 정부에서 여러 차례 수급 및 유통구조 개선 대책을 발표하였으나 정책의 효과에 대한 평가는 제대로 이루어지지 못하였다. 다양한 정부대책에도 불구하고 축산물 가격 불안정성이 반복되는 이유 중 하나로 축산물 수급 및 유통구조에 대한 정보부재가 지적되고 있다. 이 연구는 쇠고기 및 돼지고기의 수급 및 가격구조를 파악하고 이들 가격이 소비자물가에 미치는 영향을 분석하며, 유통단계별 가격의 인과성 분석을 통해 주도가격을 파악하고 비교정태모형 개발과 정책 시뮬레이션 분석을 통하여 축산물의 가격안정 정책수립에 필요한 기초 자료를 제시할 목적으로 수행되었다. 이를 위해 산업연관분석을 통해 소 및 돼지 가격이 산업부문에 미치는 영향을 분석하였으며, 정책모델 개발을 통한 유통정책의 효과 분석 등을 실시하였다.

As causes for price instability of livestock products, various factors in the demand and supply of livestock products, such as outbreak of livestock diseases, are mentioned together with unreasonable distribution structure, and it is pointed out that, despite diversified efforts initiated by the government, there is a limit in implementing measures to stabilize meat prices due to insufficient information on the demand and supply of livestock products and distribution structure. The purpose of this research is to provide basic data for establishing policies to stabilize meat prices by identifying the demand and supply structure and price structure of beef and pork. Also, the impact of meat prices on consumer prices is analyzed, and leading prices in distribution stages are identified through price causality analysis. A comparative static model was developed together with a policy simulation model for analysis.This report comprises the following contents. In the introduction of Chapter 1, the necessity and purpose of research, preceding researches, and the method of research were presented. In Chapter 2, demand and supply and price structures of beef and pork markets, as well as the impact of their prices on consumer prices, were analyzed. In Chapter 3, an analysis was conducted on price causality in different distribution stages of beef and pork markets and the existence of non-symmetry in the price transmission system, and in Chapter 4, a policy simulation model was developed and the effects of respective policy alternatives were analyzed. Lastly, in Chapter 5, summary and conclusion were presented.Major results of this research are summarized as follows:First, the results of an analysis on the structure of demand and supply revealed that the number of Korean native cattle and the farmgate price affected each other with a time gap of 1~2 years and the structure is in the form of a circulating structure with repeating fluctuations of increases and decreases. In the 2000s, the number of Korean native cattle has grown by 8.6% every year whereas the number of Korean native cattle slaughtered has not increased as much as the number of raised livestock due to an increase in breeding period and weight at the time of shipping. Beef consumption per capita was significantly increased from 6.6 kg in 2005 to 8.9 kg in 2010 and beef supply was also significantly increased due to an increase in domestic production and imports. However, self-sufficiency rate of beef dropped from 52.8% in 2000 to 43.5% in 2010 as increase in imported beef was higher than that of domestic production. The number of pigs raised and the number of pigs slaughtered were significantly increased thanks to the increase in demand and continuous increase of farmgate price supported by the government policy to promote exports to Japan in the 1990s, but in the 2000s the increasing trend slowed down due to livestock diseases and the difficulty of disposing livestock manure. Pork consumption per capita increased from 16.5kg in 2000 to 19.3kg in 2010 and pork supply also significantly increased thanks to the increase in domestic production and imports. However, self-sufficiency rate of pork dropped from 91.6% in 2000 to 76.5% in 2010 as the increase in imported pork was bigger that of domestic production. Second, the prices of beef and pork both have seasonal characteristics due to demand and supply factors. Due to the increase in demand for beef which has been traditionally used for ancestral rites, the quantity of slaughtered cattle significantly increases from one month before New Year's Day and Korean Thanksgiving Day ('Chuseok'), and beef price also increases while pork price has seasonality due to factors mainly in the supply side. Conception rate of pig falls significantly in the summer season (July to August) due to heat stress, which pushes up the farmgate price from May to June of next year while an increase in conception rate in the winter season leads to an increase in shipping quantity from October to November of next year, which forms the lowest farmgate price during a year. The share of livestock products in the consumer price index is 2.1% while the share of domestic beef and pork is 0.68% and 0.75%, respectively. During the recent 3 years, the consumer price index increased by an annual average of 3.5%, and the contribution level of domestic beef and pork to the increase in consumer price was analyzed to be 0.05%p in both cases. The industry areas in which the consumer price was most significantly affected by changes in the price of cattle and pig were beverage and foods, restaurants and the lodging industry. When the price of cattle changed by 10%, the impact on consumer price was 0.09%, the breakdown of which by area was a change by 0.05% for beverage and foods and 0.03% for restaurants and the lodging industry. When the price of pig changed by 10%, the impact on consumer price was analyzed to be 0.14%, the breakdown of which by area was a change by 0.08% for beverage and foods and 0.05% for restaurants and the lodging industry. The share of meat out of urban household expenditure was down from 3.8% in 1990 to 2.4% in 2010, and the share of meat in the consumer price index was estimated to have decreased continuously. As to the sensory price level which consumers feel, beef price was analyzed to be 3.2 times bigger compared to pork price, city gas was 4.1 times bigger than beef, and passenger transportation was 4.7 times bigger than beef, which means that the sensory livestock product price index was analyzed to be lower than utility rates. The impact of pork price on the sensory price index increases more as family size gets bigger and decreases more as ages of family increase. Third, the results of an analysis on dynamic causality of price in distribution stages of beef and pork revealed that retail price of beef was influenced by pork price of all stages except for wholesale price of pork while retail price of pork was strongly influenced by wholesale price of beef and farmgate price of pork. And the result of a simultaneous causality analysis revealed that wholesale price and retail price of pork played important roles in the price formation of beef and pork distribution markets. Fourth, the results of an analysis on the existence of non-symmetry of price transmission in distribution stages of beef and pork revealed that non-symmetry of price transmission was the biggest and continuous at the 'wholesale→retail' stage of the beef market. Retail price of beef was adjusted in a far more bigger scale by an increase than a decrease in wholesale price, and such a difference in price reaction continued for a considerably long period. In both the beef and pork markets, price transmission at the stage of 'production site→wholesale' was done faster than that at the stage of 'wholesale→retail' on a short-term basis, whereas on a long-term basis price transmission at the stage of 'wholesale→retail' was done in a bigger scale than that at the stage of 'production site→wholesale' in both the beef and pork markets. For example, even though retail price of pork reacts very little to the changes in wholesale price on a short-term basis, as time passed, retail price changes more than 1% for a 1% change of wholesale price. Fifth, the results of a comparative static model analysis revealed that if the shipping cost from wholesaler to retailer decreased by 1% due to expansion of business affiliation which would result in an improved beef and pork distribution structure, the retail price of beef will decrease by 0.11% and 0.38% in the case of pork. However, if the shipping cost from farmer to retailer decreased by 1% thanks to direct trade, the retail price of beef will fall by 0.12% and pork 0.39%.Researchers: Min-kook Jeong, Hyun-joong KimE-mail address: mkjeong@krei.re.kr