북한의 농림축산물 교역 동향 분석과 향후 전망

Abstract

지금 우리는 한반도 정세의 대전환을 목전에 두고 있다. 현재 진행되고 있는 남·북·미 대화가 최종 합의에 이르고 비핵화와 평화체제 구축이 이행된다면, 남북관계는 획기적으로 개선되고, 막혀있던 경제교류는 다시 열릴 것으로 기대된다. 이 연구는 향후 도래할 평화 이행시대 남북 간 교역 재개에 대비하는 농업분야 기초 작업의 일환으로 수행되었다. 여기에서는 우선 북한의 농림축산물 교역 실태와 변화를 분석하고, 이를 기초로 농업분야에서 남북 교역을 활성화할 수 있는 방안을 모색하려 한다. 이 연구에서는 먼저 ‘UN Comtrade’가 제공하는 모든 국가의 대북한 교역 자료를 활용해 북한의 농림축산물 대외교역 통계를 구축하였다. 다음으로는 구축된 통계를 여러 측면에서 고찰하며 북한 농림축산물 교역의 특성과 변화를 분석하였다. 마지막으로는 남북교역 재개 시 농업분야 교역 활성화를 위한 접근 방안을 모색해 보았다.

Background and Purpose of ResearchRecently the situation on the Korean peninsula has suddenly changed in a positive direction. If South and North Korea and the US agree on denuclearization and a peace regime in the current ongoing dialogue, it will be a breakthrough in inter-Korean relations, and economic exchange between the two Koreas which ceased can begin again. This study was carried out as part of the groundwork in preparation for resuming inter-Korean trade in agricultural, forest and livestock products. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current state of and changes in North Korea's trade in agricultural, forest and livestock products, and seek ways to promote inter-Korean trade in these products based on the analysis when economic exchange between the two Koreas is resumed.Method of ResearchStatistics on North Korea's international trade have not been announced. In this situation, the statistics can be constructed only by utilizing trade statistics of the country's all trade partners. This study constructed statistics on North Korea's international trade in agricultural, forest and livestock products as mirror statistics by using UN Comtrade statistics. Research Results and ImplicationsNorth Korea's trade in agricultural, forest and livestock products has maintained the trade structure of a less developed country for a long time. The country's major exports consist of collected forest products and agricultural and animal by-products. Among North Korea's imports, grains including food and soybeans account for the largest share. Also, the country's trade size is so small that increases or decreases in trade in a few particular commodities affect the total trade size.If the current ongoing dialogue among South and North Korea and the US progresses, conditions that can promote North Korea's international trade again may be created with the lifting of sanctions. However, as a change of North Korea's socialist economic system cannot be expected in the short term, it is difficult to forecast that only easing sanctions will greatly increase the country's trade in agricultural, forest and livestock products and soon improve the trade structure.The key to promoting inter-Korean agricultural cooperation and developing North Korea's agriculture is to boost commercial trade. Therefore, it is necessary to first implement leading development cooperation projects in the agriculture sector; enhance the production capacity of North Korean agriculture by using the projects as incubators; and improve the country's trade structure of agricultural, forest and livestock products and increase trade.On the other hand, in the leading agricultural cooperation projects, the selection of crops for inter-Korean trade is important. If importing agricultural and livestock products from North Korea can contract domestic agriculture, it is difficult to promote inter-Korean trade in the products. Thus, at the early stage of agricultural cooperation, it is desirable for North Korea to produce agricultural and livestock products which South Korea has already steadily imported. Researchers: Kim Younghoon, Chon Hyoungjin, Lim ChehwanResearch Period: 2018. 1. ~ 2018. 10.E-mail Address: kyhoon@krei.re.kr