김경필 이원진 박재홍 박미성 2018-11-15T08:17:02Z 2018-11-21T01:20:14Z 2006-02 C2006-04 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/14955 This study aims to estimate the impact of fruit imports on Korean fruit industry and to suggest the strategies to cope with the opening of the Korean fruit market. The items analyzed in this research are apple, pear, mandarine, grape, peach and sweet persimmon. The Korea Rural Economic Institute-Commodity Model 2005(KREI-COMO 2005) was utilized to estimate the effect. The analyzed period is from 2008 to 2017(For 10 years). In case of permitting fruit imports in the year of 2012, the production value of apple, pear and mandarine will respectively decrease by 57 percent, 42 percent, 32 percent in comparison with their production values of maintaining import prohibition in 2017. At the same condition, the production value of grape and peach will decrease by 11 percent, 8 percent respectively. In summary, it turns out that the amount of damage of apple, pear and mandarine is larger than that of grape and peach. Therefore, the items such as apple, pear, and mandarine must be pursued high standard restructuring. Also, In order to secure restructuring period, these items should be treated as sensitive products on the negotiation of DDA and FTA. And, if the price and the amount of income go down rapidly, Income Safety-Net Program should be introduced. Researchers: Kim Kyung-Phil, Lee Won-Jin, Park Jae-Hong, Park Mi-Sung E-mail address: kkphil@krei.re.kr This study aims to estimate the impact of fruit imports on Korean fruit industry and to suggest the strategies to cope with the opening of the Korean fruit market. The items analyzed in this research are apple, pear, mandarine, grape, peach and sweet persimmon. The Korea Rural Economic Institute-Commodity Model 2005(KREI-COMO 2005) was utilized to estimate the effect. The analyzed period is from 2008 to 2017(For 10 years). In case of permitting fruit imports in the year of 2012, the production value of apple, pear and mandarine will respectively decrease by 57 percent, 42 percent, 32 percent in comparison with their production values of maintaining import prohibition in 2017. At the same condition, the production value of grape and peach will decrease by 11 percent, 8 percent respectively. In summary, it turns out that the amount of damage of apple, pear and mandarine is larger than that of grape and peach. Therefore, the items such as apple, pear, and mandarine must be pursued high standard restructuring. Also, In order to secure restructuring period, these items should be treated as sensitive products on the negotiation of DDA and FTA. And, if the price and the amount of income go down rapidly, Income Safety-Net Program should be introduced. Researchers: Kim Kyung-Phil, Lee Won-Jin, Park Jae-Hong, Park Mi-Sung E-mail address: kkphil@krei.re.kr 제1장 서 론 1. 연구의 배경 및 필요성 1 2. 선행연구 검토 2 3. 연구 목적 5 4. 연구 범위 및 방법 6 제2장 국내 과수산업 동향 1. 국내 수급 9 2. 농가 경영 21 3. 생산 구조 23 4. 관세와 식물검역 29 제3장 주요국 수급 동향과 경쟁력 1. 주요국 수급동향 32 2. 경쟁력 분석 45 제4장 과실 수입 파급영향 분석 1. 분석 모형과 개방 시나리오 67 2. 과실 수입 파급영향 분석 76 제5장 대응 방안 1. 대응 기본방향 145 2. 구조조정 및 경영안정 147 3. 품질 및 가격경쟁력 150 4. 소비자 지향적인 제도 정비 157 5. 식물검역과 세이프가드(SG) 162 6. 향후 과제 168 부록 1. 일본의 사과 수입 실태와 검역분쟁 사례 170 부록 2. 사과·배 주산단지 우수사례 175 참고문헌 180 한국농촌경제연구원 과실 수입 파급영향 분석과 대응방안 An Analysis of the Effect of Fruit Imports in Korea KREI 보고서 Kim, Kyungphil Park, Jaehong Park, Misung 9999-12-31 9999-12-31