어명근 정정길 김배성 이현주 리경호 2018-11-15T08:18:08Z 2018-11-15T08:18:08Z 2006-11 R535 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/15054 Chinese economy has already experienced internal reform since 1978. In the 21st century, it tries to continue external reform within the trade regime of the World Trade Organization(WTO) which the country joined in 2001. As its economy grew rapidly, Chinese agricultural products also increased. But the share of agriculture in the national economy has kept dwindling. Agriculture also experienced structural changes of expanding labor-intensive sectors, such as vegetables, fruits and meats, at the cost of land-intensive grains. After joining the WTO, increased agricultural imports resulted in agricultural trade deficits since 2004. This study analyzed the current demand and supply trends of major grains, vegetables, fruits and meats as well as their future prospects. The projection based on analyses shows that China may possibly maintain the equilibrium of demand and supply for most agricultural products in the mid- and long run. But it must still depend upon the imports of some land-intensive agricultural products such as soybeans and feed grains from abroad. China has enhanced its market economic system even in the rural and agricultural sector since its joining the WTO. The government recognized the urban-rural income disparity as a significant social threat. It tried to solve the problem by increasing agricultural exports, which requires high quality and safety standards for food and agricultural products. Currently, most developed countries prohibit the imports of fruits and meats from China because of the Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) reasons. It is necessary to build a system for predicting Chinese agricultural situations by collecting and analyzing related data and information. Korean agriculture cannot help getting impacted by the changes in Chinese agricultural conditions. Some international organizations, such as the OECD, have already established outlook models for Chinese agriculture and have been storing up forecast data. The results of their estimations, however, are insufficient to be utilized as the information befitting Korean agriculture since Korea has some unique characteristics in its agricultural structure. As a result, we should establish our own model and forecast systems for the Chinese agriculture in the long run. More studies and analyses are deemed necessary for comparing the competitive advantages in the agricultural sector prior to the signing of a free trade agreement (FTA) between Korea and China. Some other research topics such as the strategies for entering into agricultural niche-markets in China or the surveys on Chinese production belts for major agricultural products also warrant further study. Researchers: Myong-Keun Eor, Chung-Gil Chung, Bae-Sung Kim, Hyun-Ju Lee, Jing-Hu Li E-mail address: myongeor@krei.re.kr 중국의 농산물 수급 동향과 농정 변화 제1장 서 론 1. 연구의 필요성과 목적 3 2. 연구 범위와 방법 5 제2장 중국의 경제 성장과 농업 1. 중국 경제의 지속적 성장 7 2. 중국 경제의 구조 변화 9 3. 중국 농업의 구조 변화와 도농간 소득 격차 12 제3장 중국의 주요 농산물 수급 동향과 변화 요인 1. 곡물류 수급 동향과 변화 요인 17 2. 채소류 수급 동향과 변화 요인 25 3. 과일류 수급 동향과 변화 요인 31 4. 육류 수급 동향과 변화 요인 36 제4장 중국의 농업정책과 향후 농정 방향 1. WTO 가입 이전의 농업정책(1978～2000) 43 2. WTO 가입 이후의 농업정책 변화 47 3. 향후 중국의 농업정책 방향 60 중국의 농산물 중장기 수급 전망과 시사점 제1장 수급 전망모형과 도입 가정 1. OECD Aglink 모형구조와 도입 가정 68 2. CAPSiM 모형 구조와 도입 가정 79 제2장 중국의 농산물 품목별 중장기 수급 전망 1. 곡물류 중장기 수급 전망 결과 91 2. 육류 중장기 수급 전망 결과 103 3. 채소류 중장기 수급 전망 결과 110 4. 과일류 중장기 수급 전망 결과 115 제3장 중국의 농정 및 농산물 수급 변동의 영향 1. 중국의 농산물 수급 변화 요인과 특징 121 2. 우리나라 농산물 교역에 미치는 영향 125 제4장 요약 및 결론 1. 요약 141 2. 결론: 정책적 시사점 146 부록 151 ABSTRACT 162 표·그림 차례 164 참고 문헌 170 한국농촌경제연구원 중국의 농산물 수급 중장기 전망(2/2차년도) Mid- and Long-Term Projections of Chinese Agriculture KREI 보고서 Eor, Myongkeun Chung, Chunggil Kim, Baesung Lee, Hyunju