김명환 권오복 이대섭 김태훈 조영수 류상모 신유선 박상미 2018-11-15T08:19:29Z 2018-11-15T08:19:29Z 2007-12 R546 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/15173 KREI-ASMO(Korea Rural Economic Institute - Agricultural Simulation Model) was developed by the Korea Rural Economic Institute in 1995, and has been used for mid- and long-term outlook as well as to analyze external shocks or various alternative policies for the Korean agricultural sector. The model is a partial equilibrium model that adopts a structural/recursive simulation method. KREI-ASMO includes five sub-models; 1) sub-model for forecasting of macro-economic variables, 2) input price sub-model, 3) grain and fruits and vegetable sub-model, 4) livestock sub-model, and 5) closing sub-model for the Korean agriculture sector. This 2-years research project aims to version-up the KREI-ASMO, and this report is the first year midterm paper. Main features of this study are; 1) updating the database, 2) replacing the supply and demand estimation for 18 large commodity groups into 53 specific commodities and groups, 3) introducing international trade sub-model for rice, and 4) finding the equilibrium prices through simultaneous equilibrium of supply and demand instead of recursive method. In the first year, database was updated, supply and demand equations for the specified commodities were estimated, and some macro agricultural equations such as farm population, farm employment, farming vs. non-farm income, input price indices were re-estimated. 제1장 서론 제2장 농업거시지표 추정 제3장 재배면적반응함수 추정 제4장 단수함수 추정 제5장 수요함수 추정 제6장 수입수요함수 추정 제7장 요약 및 과제 참고 문헌 한국농촌경제연구원 농업부문 전망 모형 구축 연구 (1/2차연도) Upgrading the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model, KREI-ASMO KREI 보고서 Kim, Myunghwan Kwon, Ohbok Lee, Daeseob Kim, Taehun Cho, Youngsu Shin, Youseon Park, Sangmi partial equilibrium KREI-ASMO Korea agricultural sector macro variables supply and demand estimation equilibrium recursive structure acreage response function yield function import demand fun