정민국 허덕 우병준 이명기 김현중 이형우 김원태 2018-11-15T09:40:11Z 2018-11-15T09:40:11Z 2011-11-30 R641 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/19807 축산물가격의 불안정은 가축질병 발생 등으로 인한 수급 변화뿐만 아니라, 불합리한 유통구조도 그 원인으로 자주 거론되고 있다. 축산물 가격안정을 위해 정부에서 여러 차례 수급 및 유통구조 개선 대책을 발표하였으나 정책의 효과에 대한 평가는 제대로 이루어지지 못하였다. 다양한 정부대책에도 불구하고 축산물 가격 불안정성이 반복되는 이유 중 하나로 축산물 수급 및 유통구조에 대한 정보 부족이 지적되고 있다. 이 연구는 축산물 중 쇠고기 및 돼지고기의 수급 및 가격 구조를 분석하고 유통실태를 조사·분석하여 개선 과제를 도출하며, 유통 관련 정책 평가와 외국 사례 분석을 통하여 쇠고기 및 돼지고기의 유통구조 개선방안을 제시할 목적으로 수행되었다. 이를 위해 유통단계별로 유통 주체에 대한 설문조사, 전문가 그룹을 통한 유통정책 평가, 정책모델 개발을 통한 유통정책의 효과 분석 등을 실시하였다. 그리고 국제세미나 개최를 통해 외국의 사례를 벤치마킹하였으며, 분석결과를 종합하여 개선방안을 제시하였다. As the recognition on the necessity for the stability of consumer price is expanded, requests for the preparation of effective policy alternatives for the stabilization of livestock product prices are increasing. As a cause for instability of prices for livestock products, diversified changes in the demand and supply of livestock products such as outbreak of livestock diseases are frequently mentioned together with unreasonable distribution structure, and it is pointed out that, despite diversified efforts initiated by government, there is a limit in implementing measures for the stabilization of livestock product price due to insufficient information on demand and supply of livestock products and distribution structure. The purpose of this research is to derive the tasks for improvement by analyzing the demand and supply and price structure of beef and pork among livestock products and conducting and analyzing the actual state of distribution and to present an improvement plan for distribution structure for beef and pork through distribution related policy evaluation and the analysis of foreign cases. This report is comprised of the following contents. In the Chapter 1 Introduction, the necessity and purpose of research, preceding researches, the method of research were presented, and in the Chapter 2, demand and supply and price structures of beef and port markets were analyzed while reviewing the causes and effects of the structures to distribution margins for livestock products through theoretical review on the distribution of livestock products. In the Chapter 3, analysis were conducted for price causality by distribution stage in beef and port markets and for the existence of non-symmetry of price transmission system, and in the Chapter 4, actual states were analyzed by distribution stage of beef and pork markets. In the Chapter 5, tasks for the improvement of distribution structure were derived, and in the Chapter 6, distribution policies for livestock products were evaluated through the survey conducted by experts and the effect analysis was conducted through the development of a policy model. In the Chapter 7, prices and distribution policies for livestock products of foreign countries such as Japan and the U.S. were analyzed and its implications were derived, and in the Chapter 8, basic direction for the improvement of distribution system for beef and pork markets and plan for the improvement by distribution stage were presented. Lastly, in the Chapter 9, summary and conclusion were presented. Major results of this research are summarized as follows: First, the results of analysis on the structure of demand and supply revealed that the number of Korean native cattle and the price at production sites affected each other with the time gap of 1~2 years and the structure is in the form of circulating structure with repeating fluctuations of increases and decreases. In 2000's, the number of Korean native cattle has grown by 8.6% per annum every year whereas the number of Korean native cattle slaughtered has not increased as much as the number of raising due to the increase in breeding period and weights at the time of shipping. Beef consumption per capita was significantly increased from 6.6 ㎏ in 2005 to 8.9 ㎏ in 2010 and beef supply was also significantly increased due to the increase in domestic production and imports. However, self-sufficiency rate of beef was dropped from 52.8% in 2000 to 43.5% in 2010 as increase in imported beef quantity was higher than that of domestic production. The number of pig breeding and the number of pig slaughtered were significantly increased thanks to the increase in demand for pork and continuous increase of port price at production sites based on government's export promotion policy to Japan in 1990's, but in 2000's the increasing trend was slowed down due to livestock diseases and the difficulty of the disposition of livestock manure. Pork consumption of per capita was increased from 16.5㎏ in 2000 to 19.3㎏ in 2010 and pork supply was also significantly increased thanks to the increase in domestic production and imports. However, self-sufficiency rate of pork was dropped from 91.6% in 2000 to 76.5% in 2010 as increase in imported pork quantity was higher than that of domestic production. Second, the results of analysis on price structure revealed that over the last 20 years increase rate of consumer price for beef (annual average of 6.7%) was bigger than increase rate of prices of production sites (4.4%) which resulted in increase of distribution margin for beef, and increase rate of consumer price for pork (9.3%) was bigger than increase rate of prices of production sites which also resulted in increase of distribution margin for pork. Prices for beef and pork both have seasonal characteristics due to demand and supply factors. Due to the increase in demand for beef which has been traditionally used for ancestral rites, quantity of slaughtering of cattle is significantly increased from 1 month before New Year's day and Korean Thanksgiving day ('Chuseok') and beef price also increases while pork price has seasonality due to factors mainly from supply aspect. Conception rate of pig falls down significantly in summer season (July to August) due to heat stress, which pushes up the prices at production sites from May to June of next year while increase in conception rate in winter season leads to the increase in shipping quantity from October to November of next year, which forms the lowest price at production sites during a year. The proportion of livestock products in consumer price index is 2.1% while the proportion of domestic beef is 0.68% and pork is 0.75%. For recent 3 years, consumer price index was increased by annual average of 3.5%, the contribution level of domestic beef and pork to the increase of consumer prices were analyzed to be 0.05%p respectively. The areas in consumer prices which were most significantly affected by the changes in cattle and pig prices appeared to be beverage and foods, restaurants and lodging industry. When the price of cattle changed by 10%, the impact on consumer prices appeared to be 0.09%, the breakdowns of which by area were the change by 0.05% for beverage and foods, 0.03% for restaurants and lodging industry. When the price of pig changed by 10%, the impact on consumer prices analyzed to be 0.14%, the breakdowns of which by area were the change by 0.08% for beverage and foods and 0.05% for restaurants and lodging industry. The proportion of meat out of the expenditures of urban households were down from 3.8% in 1990 to 2.4% in 2010, and the proportion of meat in consumer price index was estimated to decrease continuously. As to the sensory price level which consumers feel, beef price was analyzed to be 3.2 times bigger compared to pork price, city gas was 4.1 times bigger than beef and passenger transportation was 4.7 times bigger than beef, which means that sensory livestock product price index was analyzed to be lower than utility rates. Impact of pork price to sensory price index increases more as family size gets bigger and it decreases more as ages of family increase. Third, the results of analysis on dynamic causality of price by distribution stage for beef and pork revealed that retail price of beef was influenced by pork price of all stages except for wholesale price of pork while retail price of pork was strongly influenced by wholesale price of beef and production site price of pork. And the result of simultaneous causality analysis revealed that wholesale price and retail price of pork played important roles in price formation in beef and pork distribution markets. Fourth, the results of analysis on the existence of non-symmetry of price transmission by distribution stage of beef and pork revealed that non-symmetry of price transmission was the biggest and continuous at the 'wholesale→retail' stage of beef market. Retail price of beef was adjusted in far more bigger scale by increase than decrease in wholesale price, and the difference with such reaction was continued for considerably long period. In both beef and pork markets, the price transmission at the stage of 'production site→wholesale' was done faster than that at the stage of 'wholesale→retail' on a short-term basis whereas on a long-term basis price transmission at the stage of 'wholesale→retail' was done in bigger scale than that at the stage of 'production site→wholesale' in both beef and pork markets. For example, even though retail price of pork reacts very little to the changes in wholesale price on a short-term basis, as time passed, retail price changes more than 1% for the change of wholesale price by 1%. Fifth, the results of actual state of the distribution of beef and pork revealed that, in the case of Korean native cattle, unions at the production sites were playing major roles although the participating subjects were diversified by distribution route, and in the case of pork meat processing companies were playing such role. Livestock farmers pointed out securing of stable buyers and guarantee of price as major consideration at the time of selecting shipping route. In the case of Korean native cattle, the proportion of consignment business for auction was the biggest for the carry-in route of unions at the production sites for livestock products, and in the case of pig the proportion of consignment business for brokerage was the biggest. Most of consignment business for brokerage of pig were taken out to cuts of meat processing companies. Meat processing companies can be largely categorized into cuts of meat processing companies at consumption places and affiliated meat processing companies, and the carry-in routes of cuts of meat processing companies at consumption places for cattle and pig are mostly consignments through broker and direct sale while in the case of affiliated meat processing companies (pig) has the biggest proportion for purchase by farming households and then consignment sale of unions at production sites and direct sale were followed. In the case of cattle, general butcher's shops were the biggest take-out routes of meat processing companies, and in the case of pig large scale discount stores had the biggest buyers. As to the proportions of cuts of meat purchase by butcher's shop, Korean native cattle meat was 22.5% and pork was 43.2%, most of which were purchased from meat processing companies. In the case of Korean native cattle meat, fat meat was mostly purchased from brokers and livestock farmers while the proportion of purchase from brokers were big in the case of pork. In most cases, the route for meat sale was general consumers and restaurants were followed as next. Survey results revealed that the proportions of the purchases of cuts of meat and fat meat by large scale discount stores showed very big differences depending on the sales strategies of individual companies. In the case of cuts of meat, purchases were made in most cases from meat processing companies and then the purchased cuts of meat were supplied to shops through their own logistics centers while fat meats were purchased through unions at production sites, meat processing companies and auctions. The results of consumer survey revealed that the proportion of purchase of beef and pork from large scale discount stores were big while consumers expressed their hopes to expand brand stores under direct management by large scale discount stores. The reason why consumers chose large scale discount store was because the purchase of other goods in addition to livestock products were easy, and the reason for their hope for the expansion of brand stores under direct management of discount stores was because they could get meat with superior quality. The results of priority survey by task for the improvement of distribution structure for beef and pork which was conducted for the targets of respective subjects for distribution revealed that Korean native cattle and hog raising farmers, unions at production sites and slaughter houses gave high priority to the affiliation in the form of cooperative unions and its activation and general butcher's shops assigned high priority to the intensification of enforcement for the sale of non-dressed meat while hog raising farmers gave high priority to the enhancement of productivity through modernization of livestock facilities and the development of technology. And most of distribution subjects suggested the activation of direct trade and the distribution of cuts of meat as major tasks. Sixth, the results of comparative static model analysis revealed that, in case the distribution cost between wholesaler and retailer is decreased by 1% due to the expansion of business affiliation for the improvement of beef and pork distribution structure, the result of analysis showed that retail price of beef has the effect of 0.11% price decrease and pork has the effect of 0.38% price decrease. However, in case the distribution cost between production sites and retail is decreased by 1% thanks to the activation of direct trade, the result of analysis showed that retail price of beef has the effect of 0.12% price decrease and pork has the effect of 0.39% price decrease. Seventh, the results of review on distribution related systems for foreign beef and pork showed that in the case of Japan they enacted 「Basic Agriculture Act｣ in 1961 in which livestock industry was designated as one of the selective expansion industries and enacted the Act concerning the stabilization of livestock product price (1961) which attributed a series of efforts at government level for the development of livestock industry, but in 2000's they are shifting the focus from livestock product price stabilization policy to management stabilization measures. As livestock industry in the U.S. shows low fluctuation of prices compared to other agricultural products and high farmer's share, government's intervention based on policy was very little. Livestock policy of the U.S. mainly focuses on the enhancement of transparency of the distribution process for livestock products, the enhancement of sanitation and safety of livestock products and the management of risk for livestock farmers. They have relevant systems such as obligatory livestock product price report system, livestock product history tracking system, country of origin marking system, meat quality guarantee program and Packer & Stockyard (Oligopoly act prevention act). Lastly, basic direction for the improvement of distribution system for beef and pork for the purpose of price stabilization is as follows: To solve the problems incurred in current multi-stage distribution structure in which there are diversified participating subjects and to mitigate price instability, it is necessary to improve the distribution system for livestock products toward the direction to minimize decision making process of distribution subjects by integrating distribution stages. In order to accomplish this, first, the enhancement of productivity and trade negotiation power is required by changing the production and shipping method from individual farmer basis to production site basis. Second, the establishment of streamlined management system is required to enhance the economies of scale and management efficiency by integrating slaughtering, processing, logistics function which are currently scattered around by distribution subject. Third, actions such as securing stable buyers, satisfying consumers' needs and the expansion of consumption base are required. The methods for the improvement of distribution system for beef and pork at the production stage are as follows: First, for the activation of organizations at the production sites, the linkage of the creation of brand by region and business affiliation projects should be considered for implementation, and general support and evaluation system should be established for organized cooperative entities. Second, for the stabilization of production factor price for livestock products, instability of price for feed which has high rate of dependence on overseas should be eliminated. For this, we need to actively cultivate the specialists for international forward transactions, to increase the production of domestic feed crops production and to review the possibility of creating feed stabilization fund through active participation of livestock farmers and feed manufacturers. Flexible operation of calves production stabilization and guarantee amount considering the number of Korean native cattle is required while setting of stabilization standard price connected with calves production cost reduction target should be reviewed as well. Third, it is necessary to modernize livestock shed facilities and to develop technology for the mitigation of seasonality of price and the enhancement of productivity. At the wholesale stage, the following measures are required: First, restructuring of slaughter houses should be promoted by allowing the change of use of the land for slaughter houses which are subject to restructuring, and wholesalers should lead the distribution of cuts of meat and have the function to lead the distribution of livestock products by region by cultivating slaughter houses by region base. Second, it is necessary to activate forward market for pork and to review the possibility the forward market to cover beef as well. For this it is necessary to prepare inducement strategy for active participation of livestock industry and to reduce basic deposits and margins for the listing of forward. At the retail stage, the following measures are required: First, in order to improve the existing price structure in which inventory costs of non-preferred parts are transferred to the prices of preferred parts, it is necessary to induce the decrease in the prices of preferred parts through the promotion of consumption for non-preferred parts including the development of assorted selling method. Second, in order to satisfy the needs of consumer layer which has differentiated preference to high quality livestock products, it is necessary to secure the distribution channel for high class meat through specialized stores which are to be certified by government authority or institutions with public confidence. Third, it is also necessary to develop direct trade models for diversified livestock products such as brand stores under direct management considering consumers' convenience, to standardize dressed meat for the activation of direct cyber trade and to establish the system for logistics, settlement and quality control which are required for direct trade. Fourth, grade marking system for livestock products which was implemented mainly at the retail stores such as large scale discount stores should be expanded to general restaurants while intensifying the enforcement. Researchers: Min-kook Jeong, Duk Huh, Byung-joon Woo, Myoung-ki Lee, Hyun-joong Kim, Hyung-woo Lee, Won-tae Kim. E-mail address: mkjeong@krei.re.kr 제1장 서론 제2장 쇠고기·돼지고기 수급 및 가격구조 분석 제3장 쇠고기·돼지고기 가격의 인과성과 비대칭성 분석 제4장 쇠고기·돼지고기 유통실태 조사 및 분석 제5장 쇠고기·돼지고기 유통정책 과제 순위조사 및 평가 제6장 쇠고기·돼지고기 정책모형 개발 및 효과 분석 제7장 외국의 축산물 유통 관련 제도 검토 및 시사점 제8장 쇠고기·돼지고기 유통체계 개선 방안 제9장 요약 및 결론 한국농촌경제연구원 물가안정을 위한 축산물과 축산식품 유통체계 구축 연구(1/4년차) A Study on Improving a Livestock Product-Distribution System for Stabilizing Inflation(Year 1 of 4) KREI 보고서 Jeong, Minkook Huh, Duk Woo, Byungjoon Lee, Myeongki Kim, Hyunjoong Lee, Hyungwoo Kim, Wontae 축산물 유통 축산식품 물가안정을 위한 축산물과 축산식품 유통체계 구축 연구(4의1차년도)