허덕 정민국 우병준 송우진 지인배 이정민 김진년 이용건 2018-11-15T09:51:32Z 2018-11-15T09:51:32Z 2013-12-30 R701 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/20656 소비자 물가 안정에 대한 국민적 관심이 점차 강조되고 있다. 이에 따라 축산물가격의 안정을 위한 효과적인 정책대안 마련에 대한 요구도 높아지고 있다. 축산물이 전체 물가에서 차지하는 비중은 아주 작지만 생필품으로 구입 빈도가 높고 수급 상 단기변동이 많은 편이어서 소비자가 느끼는 물가 체감도는 작지 않은 것으로 인식되고 있는 것도 사실이다. 축산물 가격의 불안정은 가축질병 발생 등으로 인한 수급변화뿐 아니라 불합리한 유통구조도 그 원인으로 자주 거론되고 있다. 축산물 가격 안정을 위해 정부에서 여러 차례 수급 및 유통구조 개선 대책을 발표하였으나 정책의 효과에 대한 평가는 제대로 이루어지지 못하였다. 특히 이번 연구의 주요 대상인 우유의 경우, 올해 유대 인상 조치가 있었고, 연초에는 모 유업체의 유통 질서 관련 사건도 불거져, 국민들의 관심이 더욱 높아진 상황이다. 다양한 정부대책에도 불구하고 축산물 가격의 불안정성이 반복되는 이유 중 하나로 수급 및 유통구조에 대한 정보 부족을 지적하고 있다. 이 연구는 축산물 중 우유 및 오리고기의 수급 및 가격 구조를 분석하고 유통 실태를 조사‧분석하여 개선 과제를 도출하는 데 목적을 두고 수행되었다. 또한, 유통관련 정책 평가와 외국 사례 분석을 시도하여 우유 및 오리고기의 유통구조 개선 방안을 제시할 목적도 가지고 있다. Background of Research As the awareness of the importance of and the need for consumer price stability has expanded, the interest in effective policy alternatives for stabilizing the price of livestock products has also been growing. Although a percentage of livestock commodities in the total prices is small, the frequency of purchasing them as necessities of life is high and the short-term fluctuation in supply and demand is high as well. For this reasons, consumers think that their prices are relatively high. Method of Research This study analyzes the supply and demand of livestock products and their price structure, and the impact of major policies and changes in the market environment on the supply and demand as well as the prices. It examines the livestock-related institutions and based on the results, it proposes plans to improve the livestock products distribution system. This four-year study analyzes the markets for beef, pork, chicken, eggs, milk, duck, and livestock foods (ham, sausage and dairy products). This third-year study examines milk and duck. This report consists of Part 1 Introduction, Part 2 Milk, Part 3 Duck and Part 4 Summary and Conclusions. Research Results and Implications Part 2 Milk Chapter 1 summarizes the supply and demand of raw milk, its distribution status, and the dairy-related policies and institutions. With respect to the supply and demand of raw milk, the consumption of fluid milk has declined since 2003 and its seasonality has caused imbalance in the supply and demand throughout the year. In terms of the dairy-related policies and institutions, the measures to advance the dairy industry, which was announced in April 2013, have importance. According to these measures, firstly, the Korea Dairy Committee should be reorganized to take the central role of dairy organizations. Secondly, a stable raw milk supply and demand system should be established through the supply and demand control at the production and supply stages. Thirdly, the production cost level should be maintained in preparation for the seasonal surplus through the supports for dairy processing business. Last but not the leastly is to prepare plans are needed to improve productivity of the dairy industry. In Chapter 2, the impact of milk price on the overall prices is analyzed. The result shows that its contribution to the rise in the CPI is higher than other major agricultural and livestock products. Next, the consumer survey is conducted to analyze the prices which the consumers sensed as a result of the change in the prices of major dairy products. The impact of all dairy items on the consumer inflation perception is shown to be higher than that of rice. In addition, it is found that the consumer inflation perception is affected by the price fluctuations and the total amount spent together with the fact whether they recognize certain items as necessities. In Chapter 3, the changes in the patterns of consumer demand for dairy products are analyzed using “Household Survey” data (1990-2012) by the Statistics Korea (KOSTAT). For analysis, the impact of demographic characteristics on the demand is modeled using the PS-AIDS model. The result shows that the income elasticity of the dairy products is 0.8654, recording the seventh of the nine items compared and thus showing that it has the characteristics of a necessity that is less sensitive to changes in income than other items. On the other hand, the compensaed price elasticity of dairy products is analyzed to be -0.49. The income elasticity of milk by age is found to be higher in people under 30 than in those in their early and mid 30s. In Chapter 4, overseas cases are analyzed. It is found that the foreign countries seek to stabilize the daily product prices through the milk production cost reduction and the management stabilization. They unify the milk collection across wide areas to reduce the collecting costs and control the nationwide supply and demand. Also, their domestic dairy markets for cheese and fermented milk are active and the program for mandatory reporting of dairy product prices has contributed to increasing the transparency and competitiveness of the dairy industry. Chapter 5 describes the development of milk policy models and the analysis of its effects. The fluctuations in supply and demand by the changes in policies and environment are analyzed using simulation models. The result shows that the model where the quota varies with the market conditions has a higher utility for the market participants than the one where the quota is fixed. This implies that the efficiency of the market cannot be achieved if the quota system fails to flexibly reflect the market condition. Chapter 6 derives major challenges for improving the milk distribution system and evaluates the relevant key policies. According to the consumer survey, the consumers understand that the subsidies for income or price contribute to sustaining the foundation of domestic agricultural production by maintaining the farm income. In addition, experts from the academic circle, the industry and the government evaluate eleven major dairy industry policies. In the comprehensive evaluation of the policies in force, “the quota and the differential pricing for surplus raw milk” and “the raw milk price indexation” are evaluated highly. In Chapter 7, plans to improve the milk distribution system are suggested. First, a competition system for the milk market should be built by unifying the milk collection across wide areas, developing a joint dairy products distribution center, and strengthening the regulation and monitoring of the dairy companies' intervention in retail prices. In addition, a system to mandate reporting of the dairy product prices is necessary. It is needed to apply different prices to raw milk by hygiene and use, ingredients and seasons, and appropriate price levels are suggested. The importance of introducing a pooling price system is also presented. With regard to this, the current dairy product company quota system should be converted to the national quota system, and a central dairy organization is also needed. In addition to these, policies to promote efficient check-off fund-raising activities and to improve the efficiency of processed milk support projects are suggested to induce the balance of supply and demand. Part 3 Duck In Chapter 8, the supply and demand of duck and its price structure are analyzed. The domestic production of duck has increased more than three times for the past 12 years (from 2001 to 2012) and the imports account for less than 1% of the total domestic production. The duck price shows the seasonality due to such demand factors as spring picnic season and three dog days of summer, recording the highest of the year in July when the first and second of the dog days are and the lowest in February. As a result of the simultaneous causality analysis for the price of each stage of distribution, it is confirmed that there is a huge correlation between the producer's price and the wholesale price and that the movement of the wholesale price is relatively close to that of the producer's price. The DAG result shows that the producer' price and the retail price are driven by the wholesale price. The correlation between the retail prices and the wholesale and producer's prices is found to be relatively weak. The analysis of the impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on the price of each distribution stage shows that, though HPAI outbreaks result in a short-term decline of consumption, the prices rise again after a few months due to the recovery of consumption and the reduced supply following the disposal by burial. Subsequently the industry expands its investments, causing the excess in supply. It is also shown that this process is repeated. In Chapter 9, the current status of duck production and distribution is intensively analyzed and the challenges the industry is facing are identified. One of the major challenges for improving the duck distribution system is the fact that the duck distribution can be exposed to unfair trade due to affiliation of related companies. The problems related to the affiliation include evaluation methods, delays in adjustments, distrust of the methods of adjustments, negotiations regarding changes in the breeding payment benchmarks, chick quality problems, feed quality and supply issues, rotation guarantee problems, quality of service, and farm support conditions. In addition, it is necessary to reduce the market uncertainty and stabilize the price by reducing the seasonality of duck supply and demand. The demand for duck is concentrated in the restaurant industry. People do not like having duck meat at home mostly because there are not many kinds of duck dishes and it is more expensive than other meat. Therefore, in order to ensure a sustainable growth of the duck industry, it is necessary to develop various duck dish recipes and to increase the transparency of prices. According to the survey of suitability, reliability and representativeness of duck prices, there is a huge difference between positive and negative responses both in distribution companies and affiliated companies. Therefore, a price system that the majority can trust is needed. The duck rating has taken effect since November 21, 2011 but still only some companies have implemented it voluntarily. For overall development of the duck industry, it is necessary to expand the rating system to all companies. Institutional arrangements like standard contract mains, which can keep unfair trade practices within the affiliated companies in check, are also needed. In addition, the following problems are found: the low operation rate of slaughterhouses, shortage of sanitary production facilities, and absence of duck meat standardization and of wholesale and retail prices. In Chapter 10, the distribution policy for the duck industry is evaluated and the effects of affiliation are analyzed. The livestock experts are surveyed and the policies related to mitigation of the price volatility of duck meat are evaluated. As a result, “standardization” is selected as the most important policy, followed by “expansion of direct transaction”, “introduction of a standard contract” and “supply and demand control”. As a result of the comprehensive evaluation of the duck-related policies, the policies for supply control, facility modernization and introduction of a wholesale market are evaluated to be highly important in terms of cost, while the policy for expansion of affiliation is highly evaluated in terms of effect, enforceability or acceptance. In order to measure the market share increase effect of the duck industry affiliation on the market price and to analyze its effect on the distribution margin, the monthly data from 2006 to 2012 are analyzed using the 3SLS method based on New Empirical Industry Organization (NEIO) models. First of all, as a result of the estimation of affiliation, the demand elasticity of the duck wholesale market is estimated to be -0.298 and the elasticities of its wholesale demand to the changes of prices of alternative meat such as beef, pork and chicken are 0.34, 0.14 and 0.25 respectively. The income elasticity of duck meat is estimated to be 5.667, reflecting that the demand for duck as a health food has steadily increased following the recent increase in income. Meanwhile, the duck market is analyzed to have an oligopoly structure. In Chapter 11, the duck distribution system of China, which accounts for most of the world's duck consumption, is examined and its implications on the Korean duck industry are presented. In China, duck is classified as a festival food and thus the government policies and financial support for the development of the duck industry are insufficient compared to those for pork and chicken. Even in this policy environment, China has conditions favorable for duck production and consumption and thus the affiliation has made a significant progress. In addition, it is found that each region has a variety of culinary culture, which provides a strong consumer base and enabled the industry to grow. Above all, the Chinese government's effort to expand the investments in breeding facilities is remarkable. However, it is shown that China's duck industry is still poor in terms of disease control and food safety and hygiene. Chapter 12 suggests plans to improve the duck distribution system. As basic policies for the development of the duck industry, it is needed to stabilize the duck price through the supply stabilization, improve the distribution system, and enhance the price indexation in each distribution stage. As the supply control policies, strengthening the supply control council, developing various duck database, improving the statistics system, and controlling the supply through precise observation are necessary. To expand the duck demand, the policies for developing new products, introducing a mandatory check-off system, seasonal price differentiation and planned production, and strengthening safety control are suggested. It is found that in order to improve the pricing scheme, it is important to introduce the mandatory check-off system and the weight-based trading system along with expanding the distribution and compliance of the standard contract and forming the producer organizations. As plans for improving the distribution, expansion of the direct trading, standardization of the rating system, and opening of the cyber wholesale market are presented. Most of all, it is important to make pest management and quality control easy through modernization of the duck facilities. Researchers: Huh Duk, Min-Cook Jeong, Byung-Joon Woo, Woo-Jin Song, In-Bae Ji, Jung-Min Lee. Jin-Nyoun Kim, Yong-Geon Lee Research Period: 2013. 1 ～ 2013. 12 E-mail address: huhduk@krei.re.kr 제1부 서론 제2부 우유 제1장 원유 수급 및 가격구조 분석 제2장 우유의 물가 파급영향 분석 제3장 낙농제품에 대한 가구의 수요패턴 변화 분석 제4장 해외 우유 유통관련 제도 및 시사점 제5장 우유 정책모형 개발 및 효과 분석 제6장 우유 유통체계 개선을 위한 정책 평가 제7장 우유 유통체계 개선 방안 제3부 오리고기 제8장 오리고기 수급 및 가격구조 분석 제9장 오리생산 및 유통 실태 분석과 과제 제10장 오리산업 유통정책 평가 및 계열화 효과 분석 제11장 중국의 오리고기 유통 관련 제도 및 시사점 제12장 오리고기 유통체계 개선 방안 제4부 요약 및 결론 한국농촌경제연구원 물가안정을 위한 축산물과 축산식품 유통체계 구축 연구(3/4차연도) The Current Situation of Living Energy Use in Rural Area KREI 보고서 Huh, Duk Jeong, Minkook Woo, Byungjoon Song, Woojin Ji, Inbae Lee, Jungmin Kim, Jinnyoun 축산물 유통 축산식품 물가안정을 위한 축산물과 축산식품 유통체계 구축 연구(4의3차년도)