김태훈 박지연 박영구 2018-11-15T09:54:13Z 2018-11-15T09:54:13Z 2014-03-30 P192 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/20875 재배면적 감소와 기상이변으로 가격 변동이 커짐에 따라 여름철 배추가격은 매년 사회적 관심사가 되었다. 여름에 생산되는 고랭지 무와 배추는 서늘한 기후를 좋아하는 저온성 채소로 해발 400m 이상의 지역에서 재배된다. 대부분 산악 경사지에 위치해 집중호우와 같은 기상재해에 취약하기 때문에 가격진폭이 매우 크게 나타나고 있다. 고랭지 배추와 무의 재배면적은 최근 10여 년간 절반 가까이 감소함에 따라 생산변동에 따른 가격 변동 가능성이 확대되었다. 주기적인 가격파동으로 인하여 사회적 이슈가 되고 관련 대책들이 반복적으로 발표되어 왔다. 이들 대부분은 수급 및 가격 안정에 초점이 맞추어진 생산 및 유통 관련 정책들이었다. 관련 연구들 또한 계약재배, 직거래 방안 등 생산 및 유통부문을 주로 다루어 왔다. 이 연구는 이러한 기존의 연구초점에서 벗어나 재배면적 감소의 요인을 생산 및 수요, 대외여건 등 여러 측면에서 살펴보고 고랭지 채소 재배면적 감소에 어떻게 영향을 미쳤는지 분석하였다. The aim of this study is to examine factors that cause the rapid decline of acreage of highland Chinese cabbage and radish in the last decade and to estimate the effect of each factor on acreage decreased. The acreage of highland Chinese cabbage and radish was maintained or slightly increased in the 1990s, but in the 2000s, it has decreased very quickly. Therefore, the highland vegetable acreage in the Southern region almost disappeared, and the remaining highland vegetable acreage is centralized on Gangwon. We investigate climate change, profitability change, increasing Kimchi import, supply policy change etc. First, we examine the effect of climate change on vegetable yields and acreage in highland. Except 2010, there was no wild fluctuation in highland Chinese cabbage yields, and the temperature did not rise as much as the cultivation is not possible. However, in southern regions with higher temperature, a rise in temperature aggravated the salability of Chinese cabbage, while the increased temperature did not significantly affect the cultivation of Chinese cabbage. Hence, a unit price was declined and southern regions became less competitive for highland Chinese cabbage cultivation than Gangwon. The plunged cultivation area in southern regions resulted in the reduction of the total cultivation area of highland Chinese cabbage. Second, we find out that the increase in operating costs and the worsened profitability are significant factors causing the cultivation area decrease in highland. This study shows that since 2000, there is high correlation within the profit loss and the acreage decrease. Third, a change in the relative profitability of highland vegetables to other crops is another factor. In case of the highland area, due to the limitation of high altitude there was no wild fluctuation in acreage. However, in the semi-highland regions, there was a crop switch. We infer that crop switches in highland resulted from changes in relative profitability through a change in gross revenue. Fourth, we consider a change in demand of highland vegetables. The demand for highland Chinese cabbage is relatively consistent and changes in demand result from price fluctuations of Chinese cabbage and radish. On the other hand, regardless of the prices and income level, the demand for highland radish is constantly decreasing. Finally, because of its characteristics, a cultivation on speculation is the major proportion of highland cultivation. Governmental policies for stable supply and prices make price variation less vulnerable. We expect that the highland Chinese cabbage acreage will be able to increase temporarily but will keep declining for a while. However, most of the decrease will be from the semi-highland in Gangwon, so the rate of decrease will be slowed and after all, the acreage will be maintained. Researchers: Kim Tae-hun; Park Ji-yun; Park Young-gu Research period: 2013. 9. 15. ~ 2014. 1. 31. E-mail address: taehun@krei.re.kr 제1장 서론 제2장 고랭지 채소 생육 특징과 재배 동향 제3장 생산여건 변화에 따른 면적 변동 제4장 수요여건 변화에 따른 면적 변동 제5장 대외 요인 변화에 따른 면적 변동 제6장 면적 변동 요인별 기여도 분석 제7장 향후 전망 및 시사점 한국농촌경제연구원 고랭지 채소면적 변동요인과 전망 A Study on Factors and Prospects of Changes in Highland Vegetable Acreage KREI 보고서 Kim, Taehun Park, Jiyeon Park, Younggu 고랭지 채소 재배면적 고랭지 채소면적 변동요인과 전망