이용선 신유선 박지원 김성용 2018-11-15T09:56:25Z 2018-11-15T09:56:25Z 2014-12-30 R716 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/21049 과일 수입이 2000년대에 자유무역협정(FTA)의 연이은 시행을 계기로 크게 증가하고 있다. 과일 수입량은 연간 70만 톤, 수입액은 10억 달러 수준으로 늘어났다. 과일 수입 규모가 크게 확대되어 수입 과일은 국내 과일 시장과 소비에서 별개로 취급할 수 없는 변수가 되었다. 이에 따라 유통매장의 수입 과일 판매 동향에 대한 언론 보도가 빈번해졌으며 국내산 과일과 과일 재배농가에 대한 영향과 피해 대책에 대한 논란도 자주 제기된다. 이 연구는 국내산 과일 소비가 수입 과일에 의해 어떤 영향을 받았는지 품목이나 계절에 따라 분석하고 소비자가 수입 과일을 얼마나, 왜 선호하는지를 조사·분석하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 과일 소비 변화에 대한 생산자와 정부의 대책 수립 방향을 제시하였다. 국내산 과일과 수입 과일 품목으로 구성된 역수요함수체계 모형을 추정함으로써 계절별로 품목 간 다양하고 복합적인 대체 관계가 성립함을 규명하였다. 전국의 성인과 청소년 2,000명에 대한 조사를 통해 국내산과 수입 과일에 대한 소비자 개인별 선호도와 선호 이유를 파악하고 비교하였다. Research Background As the opening of the fruit market and FTAs have expanded to Korea-Chile and Korea-USA, there has been a rapid increase of imports of fruits since the 2000s. Also, there have been many claims and debates over the effects and damages of imported fruits on domestic fruits as the share of imported fruits rose in the Korean market. The purpose of this study is to analyze the competing relationship between Korean fruits and vegetables against imported fruits, as well as the factors for change in fruit consumption. Furthermore, consumer preference per fruit type was analyzed and implications for producer responses against such fruit consumption changes were presented. Research Method In order to analyze the consumption competing structure between Korean fruits and vegetables against imported fruits, the inverse almost ideal demand system (IAIDS) model composed of major seasonal items was estimated. The AIDS model comprised of domestic fruits, domestic vegetables and imported fruits was estimated for factor analysis (breakdown) of consumption patterns. And, in particular, contribution analysis based on preliminary approximation was carried out in order to investigate the effects by detailed changes of demographic factors such as change in population, nuclear families, and aging. Also, the multinominal logit model was used to analyze the differences of purchase potential of domestic and imported grapes according to the features of each household, and the hedonic price model for the apple was estimated to analyze the differences of market values according to the product features of individual items. In order to identify consumers' preference per fruit type and the reasons, surveys were conducted on 1,700 adults and 300 youths nationwide. External experts were hired to estimate the fruit demand model. The features per fruit type and the shipping and distribution status were identified, and interview meetings were held with domestic breeding and cultivation technology experts and import/distribution company staff members to seek advice on the response direction. Research Results and Implications Upon estimating the demand system among seasonal Korean fruit and vegetable items with that of imported fruit items, it was found that there was a significant substitution relationship between bananas and watermelons, between oranges and tangerines/oriental melons, and between imported grapes and oriental melons in the spring; between bananas and grapes, between cherries and grapes/oriental melons in the summer; between bananas and apples, between orange and tangerines, and between imported grapes and pears/apples in the fall; and between bananas/oranges and pears/persimmons in the winter. The change factor of domestic fruit and imported fruit consumption was analyzed to be a demographical factor. Of the demographic factors, increase of population and aging had a positive effect on consumption expenditures of fruits, while drop in the number of household family members had negative effects on fruit consumption expenditures. Upon examining individual consumers, answers that showed preference were in the order of apples, peaches, tangerines, grapes, strawberries, watermelons and tomatoes for mainly consumed items, and bitter persimmons (soft persimmons), melons, pineapples, cherries, plums, blueberries and mangos for other items. Youths preferred softer fruits such as peaches, tangerines, strawberries, oranges, melons and pineapples compared to adults. Of the domestic fruits and vegetables or imported fruits, 26.3% answered that they preferred imported fruits. Preference for imported fruits according to adult features was in the order of women, younger age groups, and one-person households. For reasons on selection of preferred fruits, 47.0% answered taste, followed by 22.9% who answered health functions, 15.2% said quality, and 13.9% said convenience to handle and consume. The older the age, the more importance was placed on health functions, while the younger adults and youths tended to place importance on quality and convenience, aside from taste. For preferred type of taste, 35.3% said sweet taste, while approximate 20% answered sour, juicy and fresh, and full of fruit, each. For preference on tangerine and grape types, higher income levels showed high levels for more expensive tangerine varieties and imported grapes. The market value per feature of apple had maximum-minimum differences according to fruit size, variety, and packaging units at 126.7%, 63.4% and 48.2%, respectively compared to the average. The premium level for larger varieties dropped compared to in the past. As economic growth rates drop in the future, it is expected that increase in fruit consumption expenditures according to increased income will also drop. While the gap is small between 2013 and 2020, it is expected that fruit consumption expenditures will increase by 0.41% every year, as the population grows and the proportion of the elderly increases. However, it is forecasted that due to expansion of large distribution chains, increased experience of foreign food culture through overseas travels, and increased FTAs and the gradual progression of food quarantine negotiations, the ratio of imported fruits will grow further in the domestic fruit market. When domestic fruit producers select fruit, they should consider the followings: (1) it has a certain level of sweetness or higher when they develop and introduce its items and varieties, (2) it is small- to medium-sized fruit, (3) its peel is easy to remove, (4) its flesh is soft, and (5) it has well known health functions. In order to maintain consumption of Korean fruits and vegetables commonly consumed, unilateral distribution/logistics with distributors must be available, and in response to nuclear families such as increased one-person households, distribution channels should be developed and products should be commercialized in ways such as small-unit packaging or pre-cut fruits. Furthermore, strategic promotion systems should be established targeting women and youths in order to promote fruit consumption. Researchers: Lee Yong-sun, Shin You-seon, Park Ji-won, Kim Sung-yong Research Period: 2014. 1. ∼ 2014. 10. E-mail address: yslee@krei.re.kr 제1장 서론 제2장 과일 수입 및 소비 현황 제3장 과일 소비 구조와 변화 요인 제4장 소비자의 과일 선호도와 구입 행태 제5장 과일 소비 전망과 대응 방향 제6장 요약 및 결론 한국농촌경제연구원 과일 수입 확대에 따른 소비행태 변화 분석 Analysis of Changes in Fruits Consumption Patterns and their Reasons: Focused on the Effects of Imported Fruits KREI 보고서 Lee, Yongsun Shin, Youseon Kim, Sungyong 과일 수입 소비행태 과일수입 확대에 따른 소비행태 변화 분석