허덕 정민국 송우진 김현중 김진년 서강철 이용건 2018-11-15T09:56:35Z 2018-11-15T09:56:35Z 2014-12-30 R728 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/21061 물가안정은 국민적 관심사이다. 축산부문에서도 가격 안정을 위한 효과적인 정책대안 마련이 강하게 요구되고 있다. 물가안정은 가격의 변동성 축소와 더불어 가격 수준의 하락을 통해서 달성될 수 있다. 축산물 가격의 불안정성은 가축질병 발생 등으로 인한 수급변화에 의해 주로 발생되지만, 불합리한 유통구조도 가격 수준을 하향 안정시키는 데 장애요소로 작용하고 있는 것으로 알려져 있다. 정부에서는 2000년 이후에도 수차례에 걸쳐 축산물 수급 및 가격안정을 위해 수급 및 유통구조 개선 대책을 발표하였지만, 아직 이렇다 할 성과를 거두고 있지는 못하다. 더욱이 이번 연구의 대상인 유가공품과 육가공품의 경우 이제까지 정책 조치가 미흡했던 것도 사실이다. 2014년, 국내 원유시장은 과잉생산으로 인한 재고부담이 가중된 상태에서 국민들의 관심이 더욱 높아졌다. 유가공품의 원료인 원유의 가격이 높고 유가공품의 수입 원료 의존도도 높아 원유 수급과 유가공품 수급이 연계되지 못한다는 점이 문제로 지적된다. 수급 및 유통구조에 대한 정보부족은 축산물 가격 불안정성이 반복되는 이유 중 하나로 지적되고 있으며, 원료와 제품 산업 간 연계성 미흡도 문제점으로 지적된다. 이 연구에서는 축산식품 중 발효유, 치즈, 분유, 아이스크림 등 유가공품과 햄, 소시지 등 육가공품의 세부 품목별로 수급상황과 가격 구조 분석을 하고, 유통실태 조사･분석을 통해 개선 과제를 도출하였다. 이어 유통 관련 정책 평가와 외국사례 분석을 통해 유가공품 및 육가공품의 유통체계 구축방안을 제시하였다. Background of Research Consumer price stabilization is considered one of the important tasks that need continual efforts in order to stabilize the people’s economy. Livestock products have very small weight in the consumer price index, but affect prices felt by consumers much. This study considers price stability as a reduction in price fluctuations and in prices and aims at stabilizing prices through livestock products’ consumer price stabilization and reduction and decreasing distribution costs to enhance the products’ competitiveness. Method of Research Following Part 1 (Introduction), Part 2 analyzed livestock products’ structure of prices and supply and demand and their effect on prices. Part 3 (Dairy Products) drew major tasks by analyzing the current state of milk product distribution and evaluating marketing policies, and analyzed main policy and environment changes’ effect on supply and demand and prices. We also examined related foreign systems and experiences, and based on the result, presented ways to improve the dairy product distribution system. Part 4 (Processed Meat Products) also suggested improvement measures through a similar research procedure. Part 5 (Summary and Conclusions) summarized the analysis results. Research Results and Implications In Chapter 1, Part 2, the necessity for the quota system of raw milk for cheese and fermented milk is presented through the analysis of livestock products’ prices and supply and demand. The causality analysis shows that raw milk prices are a factor in price fluctuations. Chapter 2 indicates that dairy products’ price fluctuations’ effect on prices is insignificant, but the differences in the fluctuations and purchase experiences affect prices felt by consumers, and the influence’s degree depends on consumers’ features or the kinds of the products. As for a half-life of the effect of an increase in the products’ trade, that of fermented milk is the longest, and the results reveal that expanding the domestic market is more advantageous than increasing fermented milk exports. The results also indicate that growing cheese trade can decrease domestic cheese prices. The price fluctuation rate of processed meat products was low, although that of raw meat was high. According to the analysis of the products’ price fluctuations’ effect on consumer prices and prices felt by consumers, 1) it is needed to develop handmade sausage in the short term and increase value added for ham and bacon in the mid and long term; 2) income elasticity is 1.028 for ham and 0.777 for sausage. Part 3 presented the problems of milk product distribution and the direction for improving the marketing system. Chapter 3 conducted and analyzed a survey on the present situation of distribution by item, focusing on the sub-products’ use of domestic ingredients and competitiveness comparison according to the degree of use of domestic and foreign ingredients. As for the fermented milk market, efforts are needed to match consumption trends of diversified forms and ingredients. In case of the cheese industry, it is pointed out that securing ingredients for cheese is hard due to high raw milk prices; the kinds of cheese on sale are simple; and there are regulations on ranch-type milk processing or small- and medium-sized cheese making and sales. The modified milk powder market’s issue is the limited use of domestic ingredients due to cheap imported ingredients of powdered milk. The ice cream industry’s problems are 1) overheated competition such as push sales; 2) the industry’s practice of allowing copy products; 3) shifting of marketing costs, etc. to consumers; and 4) a big burden of stock costs due to the lack of standards on marking the expiration date. The analysis of the current state of dairy products’ distribution shows that 1) the eco-friendly product market should be expanded; 2) industry restructuring is needed; and 3) the use rate of domestic ingredients for some items including cheese is low. The analysis results stress the necessity for 1) policies to expand milk products using domestic, environment-friendly ingredients; 2) PR/advertising; and 3) industry restructuring, regulations on monopoly and oligopoly, and inducements to fair trade. Also, 4) the need for the quota system of raw milk for processing is emphasized again, and 5) price discrimination by use should be supplemented. 6) The important point among measures to increase domestic ingredients is to make up for domestic and foreign price differences within limited quantities. According to industrial organization analysis, the marketing margin of cheese is on the decline, but that of fortified milk powder, fermented milk, and ice cream is on the rise. The results also indicate that the dairy product market is an oligopoly market; as oligopolistic companies’ share expands, their margin also increases; the current milk products’ marketing margin rate ranges from 13% (ice cream) to 63% (imported processed cheese). Chapter 4 analyzes overseas cases including Japan, the US and EU’s milk processing industry trends, policies, and experiences. Major implications include 1) introducing the quota system of raw milk for cheese and fermented milk and the price discrimination policy by raw milk’s use; 2) restructuring the industry; 3) expanding investments in R&D; 4) actively supporting ranch-type milk processing; and 5) strengthening competitiveness through M&A among milk processing firms. Through policy assessment analysis, Chapter 5 stresses the importance of the raw milk quota system for cheese and fermented milk, price differentiation by use, the change from the current quota system by milk company to the national quota system, efforts to reduce distribution costs, and policies for investing in R&D and supporting export. According to the policy simulation analysis, tariff reduction effects of ingredients are bigger than those of finished products, and a decrease in distribution costs increases social welfare. The results also indicate that efforts to change the market structure can enhance social welfare. Chapter 6 sets the direction of the policy for stable supply and demand: 1) stabilizing year-round ingredient supply and 2) expanding demand for milk products that use domestic ingredients. The basic direction of the policy for improving the marketing system is 1) reducing distribution costs through industry restructuring and inducements to fair trade; 2) establishing strategies by item in response to trade liberalization; and 3) providing consumers with exact information on safety. For year-round supply stability of milk products’ ingredients among supply-demand stabilization policies, we presented measures of 1) changing the price differentiation system from by use to by sanitation and use, 2) introducing the price discrimination policy by season, and 3) managing the proper number of milk cows and strengthening the livestock outlook function. To increase demand for dairy products that use domestic ingredients among supply-demand stability policies, the following measures are presented: 1) introducing the raw milk quota system for cheese and fermented milk and making up for a domestic/foreign price gap within limited quantities; 2) implementing a policy to increase demand for domestic milk products; 3) strengthening support for ranch-type milk processing; 4) developing export markets; and 5) differentiating PR/advertising by product. We suggested plans to reduce distribution costs by restructuring the industry and inducing fair trade among policies for improving the marketing system: 1) a project for inducing industry restructuring; 2) inducements to fair trade; 3) efforts to enhance productivity; and 4) measures to vitalize the domestic, eco-friendly dairy product market. In case of strategies by item among the marketing system improvement policies, we presented 1) establishing countermeasures by item of dairy products against expanding FTAs and 2) increasing quality and value added. To give consumers exact information, we proposed creating clear labeling standards and strengthening monitoring of compliance with regulations. According to the analysis of the present situation of processed meat products’ distribution in Chapter 7, the price gap between the products using domestic ingredients and those using foreign ingredients was about 1.2-1.3 times, and the percentage of the domestic ingredient use was around 74%. The processed meat market has an oligopoly structure close to perfect competition, and as oligopolistic firms’ share expands, their marketing margin rate increases. According to the analysis results, the ham market has a typical oligopoly structure, and the sausage market has a solid oligopolistic structure that one or two companies are dominant. In case of the two items, their markets are divided through product differentiation strategies, and the marketing margin rate is about 30% and on the rise. In Chapter 8, we draw the following important implications by analyzing the foreign processed meat industry. It is needed to 1) reduce distribution costs through a marketing rationalization project; 2) collect and provide market information for export and create an information sharing system; 3) establish a safety system including disease prevention for thorough sanitation management; and 4) strengthen a systematization project and a packer promoting project in progress through a vertically integrated business model. Chapter 9 shows that, according to policy evaluation analysis, raw meat group purchase is effective among related policies, and a customs-free raw meat allocation for processing is a policy with low receptivity. The analysis also indicates that policies are necessary to promote raw meat cooperative purchasing and packers and push forward systematization. According to the simulation analysis, the effect of tariff reduction for ingredients is bigger than that for complete products, and reducing distribution costs can increase social welfare. In Chapter 10, based on various analysis results, we set the supply-demand stabilization policy’s basic direction: 1) creating the foundation of stable direct trade between parties and 2) expanding demand for processed meat products that use domestic raw meat. Also, the following basic direction of the marketing system improvement policy is set: 1) reducing distribution costs by restructuring the industry and inducing fair trade; 2) establishing counterstrategies by item against trade liberalization; and 3) providing consumers with clear safety information. We presented measures to create the base of stable direct future trading between parties among supply-demand stability policies: 1) stably securing raw meat through future trading and raw meat price stabilization and 2) improving the statistics system and the forecast function. For ways to expand demand for processed meat made from domestic ingredients, the following are suggested: 1) developing and giving support for export markets and 2) differentiating PR/advertising by item. We propose plans to reduce distribution costs by restructuring the industry and inducing fair trade among marketing system improvement policies: 1) carrying out a project to promote industry restructuring; 2) strengthening monitoring of fair trade and regulations on monopoly and oligopoly; and 3) supporting efforts to improve productivity. The strategies by item are to 1) establish countermeasures by processed meat product against expanding FTAs and 2) increase quality and value added. Last, we presented strengthening monitoring of compliance with regulations and setting clear labeling standards as ways to provide consumers with exact information. Researchers: Huh Duk, Jeong Min-kook, Song Woo-jin, Kim Hyun-joong, Kim Jin-nyoun, Lee Yong-geon, Seo Gang-cheol Research Period: 2014. 1. ～ 2014. 12. E-mail address: huhduk@krei.re.kr 제1부 서론 제2부 축산식품의 수급 및 물가 영향 분석 제1장 축산식품의 수급 및 물가 변동 분석 제2장 축산식품의 소비자물가 파급영향 분석 제3부 유가공품 제3장 유가공품 유통실태 및 시장구조 분석 제4장 해외 유가공품 유통관련 동향, 제도 및 시사점 제5장 유가공품 정책의 전문가 평가 및 정책 효과분석 제6장 유가공품 유통체계 개선방안 제4부 육가공품 제7장 육가공품 유통실태 및 시장구조 분석 제8장 해외 육가공품 유통관련 동향, 제도 및 시사점 제9장 육가공품 정책의 전문가 평가 및 정책 효과분석 제10장 육가공품 유통체계 개선방안 제5부 요약 및 결론 한국농촌경제연구원 물가안정을 위한 축산물과 축산식품 유통체계 구축 연구(4/4차연도) A Study on Improving a Livestock Product Distribution System for Stabilizing Inflation (Year 4 of 4) KREI 보고서 Huh, Duk Jeong, Minkook Song, Woojin Kim, Hyunjoong Kim, Jinnyoun 축산물 축산식품 유통 물가안정을 위한 축산물과 축산식품 유통체계 구축 연구(4의4차년도)