김만근 2018-11-15T09:58:31Z 2018-11-15T09:58:31Z 2015-06-21 RE38-2-08 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/21223 본 연구는 공급유도형 산업연관분석을 이용하여 2010-2011 구제역 발생의 경제적 파급효과를 분석하였다. 최종수요변화를 가정한 기본 산업연관분석과 다르게 공급유도형 산업연관분석은 구제역처럼 생산에 직접 영향을 미치는 경우 유용한 분석방법이다. 공급유도형 산업연관분석은 전방, 후방 산업연관효과를 모두 계측할 수 있는 장점이 있다. 분석결과 2010-2011 구제역은 가축도살에 따른 직접효과를 포함 총 7조 6천억원의 피해를 발생시킨 것으로 계산되었다. 전방산업효과는 낙농부문과 가축가공 부문에, 후방산업효과는 사료부문과 제조업부문에 크게 나타났다. The objective of this study is to determine the direct and indirect economic impacts of the 2010-2011 Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreaks in Korea using a supply-driven input-output (IO) model. The supply-driven model is better than a standard demand-driven IO model in situations where the event alters sectoral production not the final demand. Obviously, the FMD outbreak is a supply reduction question and the standard IO approach may not completely reflect all the economic impacts. Both backward linkage (upstream sectors) and forward linkage (downstream sectors) effects of the FMD outbreaks are measured. The study shows that backward linkage effects in feed and manufacturing sectors and forward effects in dairy and livestock processing sectors are strong. Total direct and indirect economic impact is estimated to be 7.6 trillion Korean Won which is much larger than the economic impact from the standard final demand-driven IO analysis. I. Introduction II. Overview of FMD III. Supply Driven Input-Output Model IV. Supply Driven Economic Impacts and Implications V. Concluding Remarks 한국농촌경제연구원 Supply Driven Input-Output Analysis: Case of 2010-2011 Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Korea Supply Driven Input-Output Analysis: Case of 2010-2011 Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Korea KREI 논문 188 173 Kim, Mankeun page. 173 - 188 구제역 공급유도형 산업연관분석 foot-and-mouth disease supply-driven Input-output analysis