김창길 정학균 박지연 문동현 2018-11-15T10:01:07Z 2018-11-15T10:01:07Z 2015-10-30 R749 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/21440 기후변화가 심해지면서 이상기상이 빈번해지고, 농업재해가 증가하며, 농산물의 재배 적지가 변화하는 등 기후변화가 농업 분야에 미치는 영향이 상당한 것으로 나타나고 있다. 기후변화가 농업 분야에 미치는 부정적인 영향을 최소화하고 위기를 기회로 활용하려면 여러 가지 적응 수단을 도입하여 체계적이고 단계적인 기후변화 적응 대책을 마련해야한다. 현실적으로 기후변화 적응 대책 마련에는 많은 시간과 예산이 투입되어야 하므로, 사전에 적응 수단의 경제적인 효과를 정밀하게 분석하고, 그에 따라 실효성 높은 적응 방안을 도출해야한다. 이 보고서는 「농업부문 기후변화 적응 수단의 경제적 효과 분석」에 관한 연구원 기본 과제의 최종 결과물이다. 여기서는 우선, 농업부문의 기후변화 적응 수단들에 대해 살펴보고 적응 수단의 경제적 효과 분석 방법론을 검토하였다. 다음으로, 농업인의 기후변화 인식도 및 적응 실태를 조사하여 제시하였고, 재해보험, 작목 전환, 기상․기후 정보 활용의 경제적 효과를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 마지막으로, 농업인의 조사 및 실증 분석 결과를 바탕으로 한 실효성 있는 기후변화 적응 시스템을 구축하기 위한 핵심 과제로서, 위험관리 수단으로 보험제도의 활성화, 미래 기후변화를 고려한 작목 전환, 융합 기술을 활용한 스마트 농업의 농가 보급 확대, 체계적인 인력 양성 및 교육․훈련 강화 등을 제시하였다. Background of Research As climate change progresses, abnormal weathers frequently occur, for example, localized heavy rain falls, typhoons, droughts and cold waves, and disasters by the abnormal weathers increase in agriculture. The subtropicalized Korean Peninsula changes regions the most ideal for growing specific agricultural products, and increases damages due to diseases and harmful insects. This implies a great impact of climate change on agriculture. It is thus necessary to establish a systematic and step-by-step strategy by adopting means to cope with climate change to minimize the negative effect of climate change on the agricultural sector and maximize opportunities. Because promoting the strategies to cope with climate change requires significant time and budgets, it is essential to make a prior in-depth analysis of economic effect of the means to cope with climate change. In this context, this study aims to make a systematic analysis of economic effect of the means to cope with climate change in the agricultural sector, and suggest a strategy for building a system effective for coping with climate change on the basis of the analysis. Research Methodology A questionnaire survey for farmers (433 farmers as a sample group) was carried out for analyzing farmer’s recognition and response about the means to cope with climate change. Different analysis methods are applied to attain the purpose of this study to analyze the economic effect of the means to cope with climate change. The stochastic production frontier model of Just–Pope is used to measure the economic effect of the Crop Insurance as a means to cope with climate change. The farmer’s decision-making model of Chavas-Holt is used to analyze the economic efficiency of crop switching to cope with climate change, and the Logit model is used to analyze decision-making factors of crop switching. In addition, the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) is used to analyze the best crops to cope with climate change. The ordinal logistic regression model is used to analyze the economic effect of using weather and climate information on farmer’s income. Research Results and Implications The means used generally by most farmers to cope with climate change included crop insurance, crop switching, and use of weather and climate information, and their economic effect was analyzed. First, estimation of the effect of crop insurance through the Just–Pope model reveals that the economic effect of crop insurance is greater as more frequent disastrous weather events occur. It also reveals that insured farmers have the benefit of 1.39 million won in comparison with uninsured farmers. The survey for the farmers reveals that a half of the respondents say they do not have enough information about the crop insurance. This implies that public relations and training are required to provide information about real effect of the insurance. The analysis of best crops by using the PMP model to analyze the economic effect of crop switching to cope with climate change reveals that subtropical crops including mangos, asparagus, bitter melons and kiwi fruits will account for 1.2~1.9% of the entire crop cultivation area in the Jeollanam-do region around 2040. The result of analyzing decision-making factors for farmer’s crop switching reveals more crop switching is closely related to farmers with less cultivation areas, more training related to farming, more use of weather and climate information and higher interest in joining crop insurances. Farmers who did crop switching say main difficulty of crop switching is reduced income at an early stage of crop switching, adaptation to cultivation technology, and ensuring buyers. Therefore, it is necessary to support farmer’s decision-making by alleviating the risk of initial income reduction following small-scale farmer’s crop switching, and providing accurate weather and climate information and crop insurance information. The result of estimating the effect of using weather and climate information on farmer’s income reveals farmer’s more income is ensured by more use of weather and climate information, for example, weather information, special reports of weather and climate change. This implies that political efforts are required to spread weather and climate information to increase farmer’s income. As an essential direction for building an effective system to cope with climate change, it is necessary to build a system to cope with climate change, based on an analysis of the economic effect of the means and farmer’s accepting capability in addition to a systematic approach, and pertinent role sharing of related bodies. In addition, exemplary key projects for building the system to cope with climate change include vitalization of crop insurance as a risk management means, crop switching in consideration of future climate change, further encouraging farmers to be adapted to smart farming using fusion technology, systematic training of human resources, and facilitating training and education. Although this study describes just crop insurance, crop switching and use of information because of limited available data about the means to cope with climate change, in-depth analysis is required for various means, for example, cultivation time control, water management for farming, and agricultural facility management in future studies. It is also necessary to use an integrated model in future studies for a comprehensive analysis about the economic effect of the means to cope with climate change. Researchers: Kim Chang-gil, Jeong Hak-kyun and Park Ji-yun Research Period: 2015. 1. ~ 2015. 10. E-mail address: changgil@krei.re.kr 제1장 서론 제2장 국내외 기후변화 실태와 전망 제3장 기후변화 적응의 이론 및 경제적 분석 방법론 제4장 농업인의 기후변화 인식도 및 적응 실태 조사 제5장 농업부문 기후변화 적응 수단의 경제적 효과 분석 제6장 농업부문의 기후변화 적응 시스템 구축 방안 제7장 요약 및 결론 한국농촌경제연구원 농업부문 기후변화 적응 수단의 경제적 효과 분석 Economic Analysis of Adaptation Measures to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector KREI 보고서 Kim, Changgil Jeong, Hakkyun Park, Jiyeon Moon, Donghyun 기후변화 농업부문 기후변화 적응수단의 경제적 효과 분석