김태훈 박동규 조남욱 손미연 2018-11-15T10:01:18Z 2018-11-15T10:01:18Z 2015-12-30 R764 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/21454 지난 20년간의 쌀 관세화 유예가 2014년에 종료되고 금년부터 513%의 관세율을 부담하면 누구나 외국산 쌀을 수입할 수 있게 되었다. 관세화 이행을 시작하였지만 WTO에 통보한 수정양허표에 대한 검증작업이 진행 중이며 국내 쌀 산업을 위해서는 통보한 관세율 확보가 무엇보다도 중요하다. 관세화로 전환하더라도 의무수입물량이외 추가수입가능성은 거의 없을 것이라는 것이 사전연구결과이지만 여전히 쌀 관세화 이행에 대한 우려가 존재한다. 국내 쌀의 과잉재고와 수급불균형 상황에서 관세화 유예기간동안 증량된 의무수입물량은 5%관세로 지속적으로 도입됨에 따라 의무수입물량 배분 및 관리에 대한 검토도 필요한 시점이다. 이 연구에서는 관세화 이후 불확실 요인들을 종합적으로 면밀히 검토하여 관세화 이행의 영향을 최소화하고 불안감이나 우려를 완화시킬 수 있는 중장기 미곡정책의 변화 방향을 제시하고자 한다. 1차연도에서는 관세화 이행에 따른 실제 쌀 수입 동향과 관세화에 대한 인지도를 살펴보고 중장기적으로 의무수입물량을 초과해서 외국산 쌀이 수입될 가능성을 종합적으로 분석하였다. 또한 의무수입량의 도입실태와 배분방식 등에 대한 검토가 이루어졌다. 2차연도에는 관세화 이행 1년을 평가하고 농가, 소비자 등 관세화에 대한 인식의 변화를 모니터링하고 기존 미곡정책의 성과와 한계를 분석하여 중장기 미곡정책방향을 제시하고자 한다. Background of Research As the 20-year rice tariffication delay since the UR negotiations ended, anyone can import rice by paying a fixed tariff from 2015. However, the verification of the tariff rate notified to the WTO is currently in progress, and the management of mandatory rice imports and its introduction have not been fully approved. In the case of Taiwan, the management and disposal of imported rice and country specific quotas were added in the verification process of a tariff rate. According to preliminary studies on rice tariffication, there is little possibility of importing additional rice other than mandatory import quotas after tariffication. Nevertheless, there are still concerns over negative effects of rice tariffication on the domestic rice industry. Also, because mandatory import quotas, increased during the delayed tariffication period, will continue to be imported at a 5% tariff in the current situation of domestic rice overstock and a supply-demand imbalance, their allocation and management should be reviewed. Therefore, this two-year research aims to comprehensively examine the changes in conditions of the rice industry and uncertain factors as domestic and foreign rice markets have been linked due to tariffication, and to present the mid- and long-term direction of rice policy that can minimize the impacts of tariffication and mitigate anxiety and concerns. This first year's study reviewed rice import trends after tariffication and awareness of tariffication, and comprehensively analyzed the possibility of importing rice exceeding mandatory import quotas in the mid and long term. Also, the current status and distribution methods of the mandatory import quota were reviewed. Method of Research We employed various methods including a literature review, statistical data analysis, quantitative analysis, surveys, and commissioned research in order to achieve the objective of this study. We utilized the data of the Korea Customs Service, the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation, the Korea Rice Foodstuffs Association, and the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs to analyze import trends after tariffication and the statistics on the introduction and sale of mandatory rice imports. We also surveyed farm households and consumers to examine their awareness of rice tariffication and whether tariffication affected farmers' decision to cultivate rice. The farm household survey was conducted on 500 sample farm households of the Agricultural Outlook Center. The consumer survey was carried out on the Internet on 500 men and women in their 20s or older who live in big cities. We commissioned research on the possibility of an increase in Chinese rice exports among mid- and long-term uncertain factors related to tariffication. The KREI-KASMO Model was used to analyze the possibility of importing rice exceeding the mandatory import quota in the mid and long term. This dynamic simulation model, comprised of 54 items, enables the supply-demand outlook for domestic agricultural and livestock products and policy impact analysis. To analyze the effects of mandatory rice imports, which have been imported so far, on the Korean rice industry, we conducted the Granger causality test and examined the causal relationship between variables, and analyzed impacts of table rice imports on domestic rice prices through the partial equilibrium model employing elasticity. Research Results and Implications Since tariffication, the volume of rice imported at the high tariff rate has been insignificant, and imports for commercial purposes have been rare. From January to September 2015, the imports other than the TRQ were 3.8 tons: 3.5 tons were tax-exempt volume, and only 0.33 tons were imported at a 513% tariff. The volume imported at the high tariff rate was mostly for tests or special purposes, and some were imported without information on the tariff rate. Farmers and consumers still have anxiety because they do not have exact information on tariffication, and some companies imported rice, unaware of the tariff rate. Thus, it is necessary to continue education on tariffication. As for the possibility of importing rice other than the TRQ for the next 10 years based on the outlook for international rice prices, domestic selling prices of imported rice are forecast to be 1.7-2.1 times domestic rice prices in producing areas. That is, there is little possibility of importing extra rice for commercial purposes other than the TRQ. The domestic rice price in producing areas is forecast to decrease to 136,228 won/80kg in the 2025 crop year, but the domestic selling price of rice imported at the high tariff rate is estimated to be 348,861 won/80kg, 212,633 won/80kg more than the domestic rice price. The results of this outlook can be different according to external conditions, supply-demand conditions of countries importing and exporting short or medium grain varieties, and policy changes. Therefore, it is needed to closely observe changes in global rice market conditions, especially supply, demand, prices, and policy changes of Japonica rice importers and exporters, and to regularly monitor world rice market trends. The government is providing mandatory import quotas, which have been increased due to delayed rice tariffication, mostly for processing at the level of 600 won/kg, lower than import prices. Demand for them, however, is lower than imports for processing. Selling them at lower prices than import prices has led to sales deficits of rice for processing, and stocks have increased. The sales loss of rice for processing exceeded 200 billion won in 2011, and was 46.1 billion won in 2012. In the case of table rice, successful bid prices were lower than import prices in the years including 2009 when the domestic crop was abundant, but sales profits were made in other periods. If only the economic aspect is considered, introducing a part of the mandatory import quota as table rice is judged to be efficient. If MMA quotas are imported entirely for processing, the current sales deficit of imported rice will increase. If 10,000 tons of table rice is imported for processing and sold, a relative loss of 7.6 billion won will occur; if the same volume is imported for table rice and is sold for processing, it is estimated that an extra loss of 8.8 billion won will occur. However, the introduction of rice imports for table use can have negative effects including a fall in domestic rice prices and production. Ten thousand tons of rice imports for table purposes are analyzed to decrease 0.09% of domestic rice prices and 0.05% of domestic rice production. If there is a social consensus about bearing the additional fiscal deficit and minimizing impacts on domestic rice supply and demand, rice can be imported entirely for processing. In the economic aspect, however, it will be efficient to import a part of mandatory rice imports as table rice. The TRQ management system can be considered in the aspects of the minimization of its effects on the domestic industry and efficiency. It is desirable to minimize the impacts of imported rice on the domestic industry and to reduce management costs by importing rice of the quality that consumers want at appropriate prices and supplying it at the right time. Currently, because imported rice for processing can be sold only when its domestic supply prices are lower than import prices, it is not easy to apply a market-oriented management method. Owing to considerable sales deficits, plans are needed to enhance efficiency in a limited scope maintaining the state-trading system. It is necessary to improve the operation method for import based on exact demand surveys on actual demanders including rice processing companies. Because rice imports for processing exceed demand and stocks are accumulating, a portion of them is sold for brewing. Long-grain varieties and broken rice can also be used for brewing, so sales deficits of mandatory rice imports should be minimized by importing cheap rice according to use. As for imported rice for table use, it is needed to consider the introduction of SBS and quota auction systems. This will be able to meet consumers' needs and reduce rice import costs of the state trading organization. Researchers: Kim Taehun, Park Donggyu, Jo Namuk, Son Miyeon Research Period: 2015. 1. ~ 2015. 12. E-mail: taehun@krei.re.kr 제1장 서 론 제2장 UR협상 이후 쌀 관련 대외 여건 변화 제3장 관세화 후 TRQ외 도입실적과 관세화 인지도 제4장 관세화 이행에 따른 중장기 불확실 요인 제5장 불확실 요인에 따른 중장기 관세화 영향분석 제6장 의무수입쌀 도입 및 관리실태 분석 제7장 미곡 수출입 정책 방향 한국농촌경제연구원 중장기 양곡정책방향(1/2차년도) : 관세화 이후 쌀 수출입정책을 중심으로 A Study on the Mid-Long Term Direction of Grain Policy: focusing on Korea’s rice trade policy (Year 1 of 2) KREI 보고서 Kim, Taehun Park, Donggyu Son, Miyeon 양곡정책 관세화 쌀 수출입 중장기 양곡정책방향(2의1차년도) -관세화 이후 쌀 수출입정책을 중심으로-