성명환 허덕 이동소 지선우 2018-11-15T10:02:18Z 2018-11-15T10:02:18Z 2015-12-30 M139 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/21532 최근 들어와 국제 곡물가격이 급등락을 반복하면서 변동성이 커지는 등 곡물가격의 불확실성이 심화되고 있는 추세이다. 여기에 빈번히 발생되는 이상기후로 중장기 세계 곡물수급에 대한 우려도 점차 증가하고 있다. 이러한 상황 속에서 세계적인 GM 작물의 개발은 단위당 생산성을 높임으로써 세계 식량 생산 증대에 기여한 것으로 평가되고 있다. 현재 GM 작물의 안전성에 대한 소비자의 우려가 여전히 존재하지만 GM 작물 재배는 세계 곡물생산을 늘려 공급을 안정시킬 수 있는 현실적인 대안으로 인식되고 있다. 특히, 우리나라는 GM 작물의 수입량이 지속적으로 증가하고 곡물자급률이 하락하는 추세에 있다. 국내 곡물자급률 제고 측면에서 국내 GM 작물 개발과 생산성 향상은 국내 곡물자급률을 높일 수 있는 여지가 있다. 이 연구는 세계 곡물시장에서 현안이 되고 있는 GM 작물에 대한 분석과 국내 GM 작물 개발 방향과 정책적 대안을 마련하는 것이다. GM 작물에 대한 부정적 시각을 반영해 우선 사료용 GM 작물의 개발을 통한 국내 사료용 작물 생산 제고 방안을 제시한다. 이를 위해 사료용 GM 작물에 대한 우리나라 소비자 및 생산자의 인식 및 수용도를 분석하였다. Background of Research Korea's demand for livestock products has been increasing in response to income growth. And as a result, imports of feed grains have been steadily increasing and those imports are mostly GM crops. In a trend that acreage of GM crops increases all over the world, Korea also needs to keep pace with global flows through the development of GM crops for animal feed by enhancing the self-sufficiency rate. For that, it is needed to establish political countermeasures in accordance with the development and introduction of domestic GM animal feed by estimating potential economic feasibility, identifying development trends, and investigating management procedure in legal and regulatory systems in major countries. This study aims to make further analysis for specific issues of the international grain market and run a world grain market web site. The first objective is to identify the status of the production of GM crops all around world, to analyze the impact of the introduction of GM crops on world grain supply and demand and prices, and to suggest the development of domestic GM crops and policy tasks for improving the self-sufficiency rate of grain through examining the awareness and acceptance of GM animal feed. The second objective is to respond to the changes of the environments in the grain market by providing information on the world grain market. Method of Research Considering that there are different opinions about GM crops, this study examines GM animal feed which includes maize, soybean, forage, etc. This study implemented data collection, visiting agencies, and entrusted a manuscript in order to identify the status of production of GM crops and the domestic and foreign trends of technology development on them. This study carried out surveys targeting crop and livestock farms and consumers so as to investigate the awareness and acceptance of technology in the domestic GM animal feed. The consumer survey was implemented for 700 domestic consumers via Internet survey system in September 2015. And the producer survey was targeted to 683 crop farms and 106 livestock farms from August to September 2015 via postal questionnaires. Research Results and Implications This study reviews ex ante economic feasibility of GM rice in terms of demand and supply based on the precedent study. Also, it evaluates ex ante economic feasibility of domestic GM rice. The analysis results show that production cost per 10a for GM rice is 684,290 won, which is 5.2% lower than that of general rice. Considering yield effect, it estimates that production cost per 20kg will be 23,926 won in the case of 10% increase in yield, which means that production cost decreases by 13.8%. It also reveals that cost will decrease by 21.0% and 27% when 20% and 30% increase in yield, respectively. The results of analysis implicate that a substantial amount of time is needed to introduce the technology of GM rice production since the cost savings effect of production is not significant, and there is a considerable difference between the reduction effect of the production cost and producer's willingness to accept (WTA) for GM technology. As domestic consumers have vague fear and negative recognition on GM crops, the basic direction of development of domestic GM crops should enable GM crops to more commercialize locally. And in order to minimize consumers' negative perception, there is a need to strengthen the safety management system. As a policy task for developing domestic GM animal feed, this study indicates several proposals such as strengthening the foundation of research and development of GM crops, construction of the verification system, labeling system for building customer trust and the establishment of the monitoring system. Firstly, in order to intensify the research base of GM crops, competitiveness should be raised through active investment and development in the public area and government and joint research between schools and businesses. For that, medium- and long-term R&D plans should be carried out in accordance with RDA (Rural Development Administration) and also need to extend R&D funds further. In addition, it is necessary to focus and select varieties with high technical skills through technical diagnostics under circumstances of limited financial resources. Secondly, it is required to accomplish the research and verification system on GM crops for commercialization of GMOs. Korean consumers may suffer from lack of understanding of substantial equivalence for GM crops. And for this reason, only a few receive screening test. But, the difference between transformanant and non-transformanant occurs as time passes, hence many varieties should be examined. Moreover, the safety evaluation stage was frequently interrupted with genetic traits due to lack of the verification system. Therefore, time and manpower are being wasted. Thirdly, considering various factors when developing domestic GM crops, commercial value should be improved. And it is needed to develop resistance to disasters and disease and insect pest to prepare for the impacts of climate change rather than simply raise the productivity. In addition, it is necessary to support continuous investment and efforts on R&D. Finally, it is important to strengthen the labeling and monitoring system to build consumer confidence. Since Korean consumers have fear and negative recognition on GM crops, it is a top priority to secure trust on them. For doing this, it is important to establish the cost-effective labeling system for GM crops considering national burden and loss. Furthermore, it is needed to accomplish the practical and continuous monitoring system and prepare an investigation and countermeasures in case of emergency or risky situations. Researchers: Sung Myunghwan, Huh Duk, Lee Dongso, Ji Seonu, Kim Seungkyu Research Period: 2015. 1 ~ 2015. 12. E-mail address: mhsung@krei.re.kr 제1장 서 론 제2장 세계 GM 작물 개발과 영향 분석 제3장 국내 사료용 GM 작물 개발 현황과 관리 체계 제4장 국내 사료용 GM 작물에 대한 인식 조사 및 경제성 분석 제5장 국내 사료용 GM 작물 개발을 위한 정책과제 한국농촌경제연구원 국제곡물시장 분석과 해외곡물시장정보시스템 구축 및 운영: 사료용 GM 작물 개발 실태와 정책과제 Analysis of World Grain Market and Operation of World Grain Market Information System KREI 보고서 Sung, Myunghwan Huh, Duk Lee, Dongso Ji, Seonu 국제곡물 해외곡물 곡물시장 곡물사료 GM 작물 국제곡물시장분석과 해외곡물시장정보시스템 구축 및 운영