박미성 이용선 박한울 박지원 2018-11-15T13:03:46Z 2018-11-15T13:03:46Z 2016-10-30 R786 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/21761 주요 채소 가격은 한·중 FTA 등 거대 경제국과의 FTA 가속화 등으로 하향 변동하고 있어 채소 농가의 경영 악화는 지속될 것으로 전망된다. 이러한 대내외적 환경변화로 인한 채소 가격 불안정을 해소하고자 정부는 채소 수급안정제도의 개편을 추진하고 있다. 주요 채소의 공급 과잉 기조를 해소하려면 대체 품목의 개발·보급이 동시에 이루어져야 하는데 대체 작목에 대한 연구는 매우 부족한 실정이다. 한편, 최근 식생활 서구화와 나트륨 소비를 줄이자는 식습관 개선운동 등의 영향으로 가정과 외식업체 등에서 샐러드 채소를 포함한 서양채소에 대한 수요가 꾸준히 증가하고 있으나 서양채소의 수급구조는 규명되지 않고 있다. 이 연구는 주요 채소의 생산 대체작목이 필요한 시점에서 최근 수요가 증가하는 서양채소의 품목을 중심으로 생산, 수출입, 유통, 소비 등 수급실태를 분석하고 서양채소의 효율적인 공급체계 구축을 위한 대응방향 및 정책과제를 제시하고자 노력하였다. Background of Research In Korea, per capita vegetable consumption is stagnant at 150-170kg a year, and the prices of major vegetables are on the decrease due to the acceleration of FTAs with huge economies, including the Korea-China FTA. Accordingly, vegetable farms' downturn in business is expected to continue. To alleviate the instability of vegetable prices due to these changes in internal and external environments, the government is reforming a system for stabilizing vegetable supply and demand. However, although alternative items should be developed and disseminated at the same time to resolve the oversupply of major vegetables, research on alternative crops is insufficient. On the other hand, with the recent westernization of the diet, demand for western vegetables has been on the steady rise, but their supply and demand structure has not been identified. Therefore, this study aims to diagnose problems by analyzing overall conditions of the production and distribution of western vegetables and examine the possibility of expanding demand by analyzing the consumption structure and preference, thus presenting tasks regarding the direction for production and supply in producing areas and supply and demand of western vegetables. Method of Research We analyzed the general supply and demand status of western vegetables through a literature review including research results and survey data on western vegetables from Statistics Korea, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, the Rural Development Administration, and wholesale markets. Also, we conducted qualitative analysis, identifying problems related to the present situation of supply and demand through interviews on the sectors with limited statistical data with producers, producer organizations, distributors, and seed companies. We analyzed purchase behavior and consumption preference through surveys for households and food service companies, and used KantarWorldpanel's consumer panel data to analyze the possibility of increasing demand for western vegetables through the panel Tobit model and the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model. Last, utilizing outside experts, we examined the current state of supply and demand of western vegetables in Japan and China, major exporters of these vegetables with vegetable consumption patterns similar to Korea, to analyze overseas cases. Research Results and Implications An analysis of the supply status of western vegetables shows that per capita supply of western vegetables increased by 1.5 times compared to 10 years ago, and the cultivation area rose at an annual average of 6.5% due to changes in consumption patterns of the diet and a rise in demand for food service. The cultivation area and production of most items except lettuce have grown. And Korea imports most western vegetables from China in a period with a relatively small supply of domestic products or in summer when domestic products' quality is not high because of western vegetables' vulnerability to high temperatures. On the other hand, although the exports of western vegetables except sweet pepper are insignificant, the exports of lettuce and asparagus have recently increased. Even though western vegetables need more labor input compared to other vegetables, high farm income and less price fluctuations enable stable production. Therefore, it is necessary to establish cultivation complexes and organizations in producing areas based on the conditions of stable supply, and to build a stable production system of high-quality products in an off-crop season and throughout the year in order to enhance farm income. In terms of distribution, the transaction volume of western vegetables in wholesale markets is not large. Nevertheless, the volume is on the steady rise with domestic cultivation acreage increasing, and various items are traded. In the past, the volume of western vegetables in wholesale markets was larger in summer than in winter. Recently, as this tendency has lessened, their volume has been similar throughout the year, implying steady demand for western vegetables regardless of season. In addition, most western vegetables, including sweet pepper, broccoli, and lettuce with high proportions in wholesale markets, have shown an increase in their volumes in the Garak Market and a rise in prices, indicating the growth of western vegetables. According to the result of analyzing the competitiveness of domestic and imported products, imports show a more stable range of price fluctuations and more competitive quality than domestic products. Therefore, for domestic products to have competitiveness in the market, it is needed to develop regions suitable to cultivate high-quality western vegetables, improve diverse varieties, and first meet the conditions such as stable supply and prices, consistent quality, and selection. The result of analyzing western vegetable consumption behavior according to household characteristics through the panel Tobit model to examine the possibility of expanding demand for western vegetables is as follows: households with higher income, more household members, and higher proportions of the use of large discount stores or the Internet purchase more western vegetables. Accordingly, to boost consumption of western vegetables, it is needed to actively utilize large discount stores or the Internet in the promotion of health functionality and tasting events. Also, the result of examining factors in the expansion of the market size of western vegetables in terms of consumption expenditure shows that a switch from general vegetables to items of western vegetables is a big factor. Nonetheless, because this does not mean a consumption substitution relationship due to price effect, this study estimated the AIDS model to identify the consumption structure of western vegetables and major foods including general vegetables. According to the analysis result, western vegetables are in a complementary relation with general vegetables, implying the complementary relation in which the two can grow at the same time, rather than a consumption substitution relationship. On the other hand, 72.0% of consumers prefer domestically produced western vegetables to imports, and 80.8% usually check the place of origin when purchasing western vegetables. The consumers showed experience in purchasing imported western vegetables in the following order: broccoli (16.4%), lettuce (14.1%), sweet pepper (13.1%), and asparagus (10.0%). That is, the level of all the items was lower than 20%. The food service industry pointed out high and unstable prices of domestic products and difficulty in obtaining them stably as the biggest problem in purchasing western vegetables. However, the companies evaluated that the taste and quality of domestically produced western vegetables are not worse than imports. Accordingly, it is analyzed that if the instability of domestic products' prices is alleviated by enhancing the supply capacity based on the current cultivation technology, there is a high possibility of expanding food service companies' demand for domestically produced western vegetables. The cases of Japan and China give the following implications in terms of supply in areas producing western vegetables and export. First, to supply western vegetables, the scale of a producing area needs not to be large, but it is necessary to establish a new system that can steadily supply various items in small quantity. For an efficient supply system, the scale of an organization such as an agricultural cooperative or agricultural corporation should exceed a certain level. To this end, members' active efforts and cooperation for change are required. It is needed to divide labor and prevent concentrated shipment by planning production and shipment through transactions based on contracts with distribution and processing firms purchasing ingredients and to strengthen consumers' information gathering. China, the world's biggest producer of broccoli and cauliflower, is making efforts to improve and develop varieties and diversify export markets. On the contrary, Korea shows the serious concentration of importers and exporters: 98% of imported broccoli and 82% of imported lettuce are from China, and 99% of sweet pepper exports go to Japan. Like China, Korea needs to diversify importers and exporters of western vegetables as well as developing and improving varieties. Western vegetables need the following direction for responding to changes in market conditions at home and abroad. First, in terms of production and supply in producing areas, it is necessary to construct a system for supplying various items by organizing producer organizations and groups. Also, it is needed to establish a year-round supply system through division of labor and strengthening of cooperation in an organization. In terms of export and overseas demand, importing nations should be diversified. New export markets should be developed, and it is necessary to increase exports in export markets which have been already developed. Additionally, it is required to develop varieties suitable for domestic production and to export seeds. Because western vegetables do not show large consumption by item and a high proportion in domestic agricultural production, they do not have the high necessity of becoming a target of the government's supply and demand stabilization policy or active industry fostering policy. Nevertheless, they provide a new opportunity for agriculture, so it is required to support the infrastructure difficult to be established by the market function. The policy tasks regarding this are as follows. First, organizations for regional technology development and extension should disseminate specialized regional technologies, an expert platform should be established, and the government or public institutions should share and provide market trends and diverse information. In addition, because demand for western vegetables is increasing regardless of changes in consumption of general vegetables, efforts are needed to create value added and expand markets by diversifying varieties. Also, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of statistics and provide support including education and promotion through collecting information related to domestic and foreign market trends. Last, a research investment environment should be created to develop varieties suitable for domestic production, focusing on western vegetables whose varieties can be developed in Korea and targeting huge seed markets abroad. Researchers: Park Misung, Lee Yongsun, Park Hanul, and Park Jiwon Research Period: 2016. 1. ～ 2016. 10. E-mail address: mspark@krei.re.kr 제1장 서론 제2장 서양채소 생산 실태와 공급여건 제3장 서양채소의 유통 실태 제4장 서양채소 소비 실태와 수요확대 가능성 제5장 주요국 서양채소 수급 동향과 시사점 제6장 서양채소의 수급 개선 과제 한국농촌경제연구원 서양채소 수급 실태 분석과 과제 An Analysis of the Supply and Demand Status of Western Vegetables and Tasks KREI 보고서 Park, Misung Lee, Yongsun 서양채소 채소 수급 서양채소 수급 실태 분석과 과제