지성태 이현근 이수환 유정호 2018-11-15T13:04:05Z 2018-11-15T13:04:05Z 2016-10-30 R789 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/21785 2004년 한·칠레 FTA 발효를 기점으로 지난 10여 년 동안 15건의 FTA가 체결되어 이행 중에 있다. 그중에서도 농산물 교역규모가 큰 미국, EU와 체결한 FTA가 각각 이행 5년차, 6년차를 맞았다. 그리고 최근 중국, 영연방 3개국과 체결한 FTA도 발효되면서 농산물 수입개방화가 본격화되었다. 최근 농산물 수입 증가세가 다소 정체되었지만, 관세율 인하폭이 더욱 확대되고 추가 FTA가 추진될 경우 향후 농산물 수입이 증가할 가능성은 매우 크다. 또한 농업부문의 인력 부족, 생산비 상승, 이상기후에 따른 수급 불안정 등 내적인 요인도 수입 증가를 촉진할 것이다. FTA 이행과 함께 정부는 농업부문의 체질 개선과 경쟁력 제고를 통해 수입피해를 최소화하기 위한 FTA 국내보완대책을 병행하여 추진하고 있다. 2008~2015년 기간 FTA 국내보완대책 관련 투·융자사업에 약 22조원이 편성되었다. 그럼에도 농업계에서는 FTA 이행에 따른 피해에 대한 우려가 여전히 만연해 있다. 실제로 특정 품목을 중심으로 한 FTA 직접피해 및 수입구조 변화가 가시적으로 나타나고 있다. 그런 의미에서 이 연구에서 다룬 FTA 이행에 따른 농산물 수입구조 변화 분석 결과는 FTA 대응에 있어 시사하는 바가 크다. 이를 근거로 향후 농산물 수입구조 변화 양상 및 개별 품목의 수입 변화 패턴을 전망해볼 수 있다고 본다. Research Background South Korea has signed fifteen FTAs with 52 countries and is in the process of implementing them. As a result of the FTAs with major countries and economies, the import of agricultural products has been fully opened. In addition, the opening of imports of agricultural products is expected to accelerate as a number of bilateral and multilateral FTAs are further promoted. In this process, it appears that the domestic agricultural sector is gradually damaged and there is a structural change in the import of agricultural products. In other words, the FTA direct payment is paid for agricultural commodities whose prices have fallen due to the increase in imports following the FTA implementation and there is a structural change in the import of agricultural products such as the trade creation and conversion that is being made centering on FTA-contracting countries. Of course, those structural changes in the import of agricultural products are a result of various factors such as non-tariff measures (quarantine), supply and demand conditions of exporting countries, changes in consumption patterns and production volume of importing countries. Since the structural change in the import of agricultural products is likely to lead to a damage of the domestic agricultural sector, it is necessary to prepare countermeasures against this. The purpose of this study is to find out whether there is structural change in the import of agricultural products and analyze its pattern based on real agricultural import data. Moreover, we tried to clarify the factors of structural changes in the import of agricultural products including FTA factors. Lastly, we tried to draw policy implications based on them. Research Method In this study, we used empirical analysis methods and case studies including the economic growth structure analysis, the test statistics, the gravity model, the multiple regression analysis and the AHP analysis. We used ①the factor contribution to growth method to analyze the relative contributions of agricultural products by FTA countries and types of agricultural products. Also, we derived ②the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S) statistics based on the S-N (Self-Normalization) method to find out structural breaks of imports of agricultural products. The gravity model based on the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) technique was used to analyze the patterns of changes in the imports of agricultural products focusing on trade creation and conversion effects. ③We analyzed the determinants of imports for 10 fruit importers. ④Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze correlationship between imports of agricultural products and factors. ⑤AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) technique was used to derive outlook and policy challenges for structural changes in the import of agricultural products, targeting 37 domestic trade experts and agricultural experts. Lastly, ⑥we analyzed the case study focusing on representative agricultural commodities that show the effect of trade creation and conversion and representative agricultural commodities by the factor analysis of structural changes in the import of agricultural products. Research Results and Implications In this study, we defined ‘the beginning of FTA implementation period’ as before the Korea-EU FTA that came into effect in 2011 and 'the middle of FTA implementation period' as after the year with consideration of the trend of changes in the import of agricultural products and the point of time when the major FTAs take effect. As a result of analyzing K-S test statistics based on the S-N method, the average and the variance of imports of agricultural products showed a different pattern from the 4th quarter of 2011 since the FTA took effect. In other words, the intuitive point of structural changes in the import of agricultural products and the results of empirical analysis were almost in agreement. As a result of analyzing the patterns of structural changes in the import of agricultural products focusing on the effect of trade creation and the effect of trade conversion, the effects of trade creation were apparent in the early stages of FTA implementation before 2011 and the effect of the trade transition was seen in the mid-FTA transition period after 2011. In the mid-FTA transition period, the possibility of the import line increased due to the increase in number of FTA countries. Indeed, the growth in imports of agricultural products is somewhat slower and it is consistent with the results of the variance analysis in which import variability tends to stabilize. If we look at the pattern of structural changes in the agricultural imports of individual FTAs, the effect of the trade creation was seen in the major FTAs as the imports of agricultural products from the FTA countries and non-FTA countries both increased. In the Korea-Chile FTA, the Korea-India FTA and the Korea-US FTA, the effects of trade creation on the FTA countries were greater than those of non-FTA countries. In other words, agricultural imports from these FTA partners increased faster than imports from other countries. On the other hand, in the Korea-ASEAN FTA and the Korea-Peru FTA, the major export countries were converted from other countries to South Korea. Actually, this analysis has some limitations such as offsetting the effects of individual FTAs due to the implementation of multiple FTAs, the lack of FTA effects of individual agricultural commodities due to the analysis based on imports by each country, and the lack of FTAs’ effect due to a short period of FTA implementation. Therefore, this study complemented these limitations by analyzing cases by agricultural commodities. The effects of trade creation are: ①new imports from countries where imports have not existed and ②increase in imports from existing importing countries. The effect of the trade conversion is as follows: ①the import volume from country B decreases as the import volume from country A increases when the total import volume does not change, ②the import volume from country A increases with the increase in total import volume. On the other hand, there is a case in which the import volume from country B increases and its share falls. Structural changes in the import of agricultural products are influenced by FTA factors (tariff rate cuts, TRQ, applied seasonal tariffs) as well as factors such as changes in domestic consumption patterns, decrease in domestic production, the conditions of supply and demand of exporting countries, the effects of non-tariff measures (quarantine), and factors affecting imports of importers. Therefore, the main factors affecting structural changes in the imports of the agricultural products were examined based on cases of agricultural commodities. As a result of the expectation of agricultural imports in the future by domestic trade experts and agricultural experts, 81.1% of total experts answered that “agricultural imports will increase as the FTA liberalization rate increases.” However, “the increase will not be greater compared to the past.” This result is actually consistent with the empirical analysis of previous studies. The AHP analysis, which assesses the relative importance of factors affecting the increase in agricultural imports, showed the highest change in domestic consumption patterns. Moreover, In the case of 'FTA factors', professors and researchers ranked highly on ‘change in domestic consumption patterns’. As a result, the combination of expert evaluation and empirical analysis shows that imports of agricultural products will increase moderately in the future and the effects of trade creation and trade will be mixed. In the future, we must prepare countermeasures against changes in import structure of agricultural products. First, as import opening due to FTAs is expanded and additional FTAs are promoted, the effect of the trade creation due to the increase in the import of agricultural products is expected to increase continuously. Therefore, it is necessary to supplement the domestic FTA countermeasures in order to improve productivity and quality, expanding the production base, and improving the distribution sector for the purpose of enhancing the competitiveness of each item. Second, ‘the consumer preference' is the most important factor in determining imports and the domestic consumers’ loyalty for domestic agricultural products has been declining. Also, as ‘changes in domestic consumption patterns’ are considered to be the most important factors that will change the import structure of agricultural products in the future, demand in the domestic agricultural import market is becoming more important. Therefore, as part of strengthening the competitiveness of each item, a consumer-oriented strategy should be established across the value chain of production, processing, distribution, and export based on changes in the pattern of consumption of agricultural products. Third, it is proved that mitigation of non-tariff measures is not only more likely to affect changes for the structure of agricultural imports than the effect of tariff cuts or elimination due to FTA implementation but also damage to the domestic agricultural sector that is proved by the previous analysis. Therefore, discussions on non-tariff measures should be treated with caution when dealing with new FTA negotiations or renegotiating FTAs. Fourth, agricultural imports are projected to grow steadily as import variability is weakening due to the diversification of import lines following the implementation of a number of FTAs and the conversion of import lines is more facilitated by the implementation of additional FTAs. Therefore, in the additional FTA negotiation phase, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the import timing of individual agricultural commodities, the indirect damage to domestic agricultural products, the agricultural commodities subject to the TRQ and a volume of the TRQ, and the damage caused by the import of related processed food and mitigation of non-tariff measures. Researchers: Ji Seongtae, Lee Hyunkeun, Lee Suhwan and Yoo Jeongho Research period: 2016. 1. ~ 2016. 10. E-mail address: dongsimjst@krei.re.kr 제1장 서론 제2장 농산물 수입 동향 제3장 FTA 발효 이후 수입구조 변화 분석 제4장 농산물 수입구조 변화 요인 분석 제5장 향후 농산물 수입구조 변화에 대한 전망 제6장 농산물 수입구조 변화에 대응한 정책과제 제7장 요약 및 결론 application/pdf 한국농촌경제연구원 FTA 이행에 따른 농산물 수입구조 변화와 정책과제 Structural Changes in the Import of Agricultural Products and Policy Implications Following the Implementation of FTAs KREI 보고서 Ji, Seongtae Lee, Hyunkeun FTA 농산물 수입 FTA 이행에 따른 농산물 수입구조 변화와 정책과제