최병옥 김원태 임효빈 2019-02-15T16:40:12Z 2019-02-15T16:40:12Z 2018-10-30 979-11-6149-232-2 R855 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/23167 주요 채소류의 수급환경은 생산, 유통, 소비, 수출입, 기상환경 등에서 다양한 변화가 발생하고 있다. 농산물 물류체계는 소포장, 대형유통업체 중심으로 전환하고 있고, 김치 소비 감소로 원재료 농산물의 소비 역시 감소하고 있다. 또한 지구 온난화의 영향으로 가뭄, 고온, 폭염, 집중호우, 한파 등 갑작스러운 기상변화가 자주 발생하여 노지 채소류의 수급불안이 확대되고 있다. 따라서 채소류의 안정적 생산기반을 바탕으로 유통, 가공, 소비, 수출입 등이 효과적으로 연계될 수 있도록 채소류의 수급환경 변화 실태를 파악하고 이를 반영한 정책 대응 방안 마련이 필요하다. 이 연구는 고온, 폭염, 집중호우, 한파 등 기상환경의 변화는 물론 유통 및 가공 등 채소류 소비환경의 변화가 채소류 생산과 가격변동에 미치는 영향을 분석하고 이러한 채소류의 가격변동이 채소류 생산 및 수입에 미치는 영향을 파악하였다. 또한 채소류 수급안정사업에 대한 정량적 평가와 더불어 전문가를 대상으로 중요도-만족도 등의 정성적 평가를 통해 채소류 수급안정사업의 과제 및 우선 추진사업을 도출하여 채소류 수급안정을 위한 개선방안을 제시하였다. Background of Research Recently the supply and demand of vegetables have been affected by more various changes in production, distribution, consumption, import and export, the meteorological environment, etc. than in the past. Therefore, it is needed to closely analyze how each factor influences the supply, demand, and prices of vegetables, and to set up policies for responding to changes in the supply and demand environment of vegetables. In Korea, the conclusion of FTAs has expanded the import of vegetables including kimchi made in China, and frequent abnormal climate phenomena due to global warming have increased the instability of the supply and demand of vegetables. For these reasons, it has become difficult to maintain stable production of vegetables. Thus, it is necessary to examine the current changes in the meteorological environment, production, import, consumption patterns, distribution, the processing environment, etc. which affect the supply and demand of major vegetables, and to present policies that can respond to these changes. Method of Research This study examined the current policy of the Supply and Demand Stabilization Project by utilizing previous studies and policy materials on the supply and demand of vegetables, and conducted a survey for experts and policymakers (the central and local governments, agricultural cooperatives, local traders, etc.) related to the Project. Regression analysis and time series analysis were also used. First, the survey on the Vegetable Supply and Demand Stabilization Project for people related to the Project was utilized to identify the current status and problems of the Project, analyze the importance and satisfaction levels by using the IPA technique, and draw development plans. Second, for statistical and econometric analysis, this study analyzed the effect of the characteristics of price fluctuations of major vegetables and kimchi imports from China on major domestic vegetables by utilizing a time series model. Concretely, this study analyzed whether a particular shock on time series data increases volatility in a certain period through ARCH effects designed by Engle(1982), and analyzed the relation among vegetable prices, domestic production, and kimchi and vegetable imports from China by using the VAR model and the SVAR model. Effect of Changes in the Meteorological Environment on the Production and Import of Vegetables From the result of analysis of the impact of meteorological and import changes on vegetable production and price fluctuations, the following implications were drawn. The meteorological environment decreased yields at a statistically significant level. Recently, a period with the highest price volatility has been concentrated in spring (drought, high temperature), summer, and fall (localized heavy rain, typhoons). Therefore, it is required to establish the foundation of vegetable production that can respond to changes in the meteorological environment in these periods. According to the result of analysis of changes in domestic vegetable acreage and prices due to a rise in kimchi imports, the increased import of kimchi reduced the production base of domestic vegetables. Changes in the Environment of Vegetable Consumption The environment of vegetable consumption is changing continually. Consumers who mainly purchased raw food products in the past have come to prefer semi-processed products including salted cabbage, washed radishes and carrots, and chili powder. Restaurants and large users have increased the proportion of their use of imported vegetables. Evaluation of and Future Tasks for the Supply and Demand Stabilization Project From the evaluation of the major means of the government's Supply and Demand Stabilization Project (contract cultivation, government procurement and stockpiling, and market isolation projects) and an analysis of the survey result of the importance of and satisfaction with the Project, the following implications can be derived. First, as the government's means of market intervention, government procurement and stockpiling and market isolation projects, are continuing, it is urgent to establish plans to enhance the percentage of contract cultivation by agricultural cooperatives. Second, the government procurement and stockpiling and market isolation projects should target producers participating in contract cultivation only, because the projects are not very effective in increasing farm household income and especially the market isolation project can cause social controversy. Third, the evaluation of the importance of and satisfaction with the supply and demand policy using the IPA technique shows that prior control of cultivation area, the agricultural outlook, and the contract cultivation project are important. Short-Term and Medium- and Long-Term Policy Tasks for Responding to Changes in the Supply and Demand Environment of Major Vegetables Through the above research results, short-term and medium- and long-term policy tasks due to the changes in the supply and demand environment of major vegetables can be summarized as follows. In the production sector, it is necessary to respond to changes in the meteorological environment by preparing measures to improve the production base and increase the percentage of contract cultivation of producer groups such as agricultural cooperatives in the short term. In the medium and long term, it is required to stably conduct contract cultivation and produce the optimal volume with vegetable production complexes that have the production base as the center. In the processing and distribution sectors, it is needed to respond to the expansion of semi-processed vegetables including salted cabbage and washed radishes and carrots by establishing plans to build a safety and quality standardization system. Also, it is necessary to minimize vegetable price fluctuations by linking the volume of contract cultivation and fixed and negotiated price sale. In the consumption and import sectors, it is required to lay the foundation for direct transactions based on contract cultivation between producer groups and end users, and to apply the positive list system (PLS) to imported vegetables and kimchi, monitoring the establishment of the PLS for domestic vegetables. In the policy sector, it is needed to lay the foundation for enabling producer groups such as agricultural cooperatives to convert the government's Supply and Demand Stabilization Project into the method of contract cultivation of vegetables. At the same time, it is necessary to connect vegetable outlook information with the Project through accurate forecasting combined with scientific technique. Researchers: Choi Byungok, Kim Wontae, Lym Hyobin Research period: 2018. 1. ~ 2018. 10. E-mail address: bochoi@krei.re.kr 제1장 서론 제2장 기상환경 변화가 채소류 생산 및 수입에 미치는 영향 제3장 채소류 소비환경 변화 제4장 수급안정사업 평가와 향후 과제 제5장 수급환경 변화에 따른 정책 대응 방안 한국농촌경제연구원 주요 채소류 수급환경 변화와 대응 방안 Changes in the Supply and Demand Environment of Major Vegetables and Countermeasures KREI 보고서 Choi, Byungok Kim, Wontae Lym, Hyobin 채소류 수급 주요 채소류의 수급환경 변화와 대응 방안