심재헌 송미령 이정해 서형주 2019-02-26T16:40:17Z 2019-02-26T16:40:17Z 2018-12-30 979-11-6149-243-8 R860 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/23254 현재 우리의 농촌은 빠르게 다기화되어 인구가 증가하고 난개발이 심화되는 지역이 있는 한편 어떤 지역에서는 고령화‧과소화로 인해 고민이 날고 커지고 있는 상황이다. 다양한 인구‧사회‧경제적인 요인들로 변모하게 될 미래의 농촌을 지속가능하게 만들기 위해서는 하루속히 미래에 발생할 문제점을 예견하고, 이에 대응하는 전략 마련이 필요한 상황이다. 그러나 농촌계획 분야에서는 아직까지 불확실한 미래를 설득력 있게 대응하기 위한 방안 마련이 부족한 상황이었다. 이러한 상황에서 이 연구는 객관적이고 과학적인 방법을 통해 미래의 상황을 예측‧분석하여 지속가능한 농촌이 될 수 있도록 계획적 정비의 방향을 제시한 점에서 의의가 있다고 할 수 있다. Background of Research A variety of socio-economic trends influence rural areas. The low birth rate, aging society, low growth and 4th industrial revolution have made sustainability of rural areas uncertain and have significantly caused rural differentiation. Some rural areas have experienced population growth and reckless development, while others have suffered from aging, population decrease and rural marginalization. Hence, it is important to identify what factors potentially affect rural areas in the future and derive long-term strategies for sustainable rural development. However as there are limited researches that forecast and analyse rural futures, it is difficult to draw rural planning strategies with credible scientific verification. This research is designed to provide objective and concrete evidences of future changes in rural areas in terms of population, society and economy, and to propose directions of planning strategies on rural development. Method of Research The result of the second year study is obtained efficiently through literature reviews and quantitative analysis. Scenario planning is conducted to select the most significant socio-economic trends that would decisively change directions of rural futures. The essential part of the research is developing the rural future prospect model using the system dynamics method. The model consists of sub-models of population, households and housing, economy and land use and is operated by applying a business as usual scenario and additional two scenarios deducted from the scenario planning. Estimates produced by the model are analyzed to grasp changes of rural futures from the perspective that rural areas are places for life, work, rest and local community. Research Results and Implications The total rural population will slightly increase due to urban to rural migration for a short term, but then it is expected to decrease continuously. Mountainous rural areas will particularly undergo rapid population decline. However, rural areas located around the capital and metropolitan cities will mostly experience population growth. Also, it is very likely that ageing will be intensified in most rural areas and that functions of rural centers will be gradually reinforced. Therefore, it is necessary to develop effective service delivery systems that compensate for unfortunate service shortage in marginalized rural areas. Regarding the rural economy, agricultural job opportunities will gradually decrease and land use of agricultural production is expected to be shrunk. On the other hand, since the number of jobs in the manufacturing industry will increase in many rural areas, suitable planning strategies that balance conservation and development in tandem with securing optimal capacity of industrial sites need to be established. Conservation of forests and fields is another important issue to pursue rural areas as resting places. The amount of forests and fields is forecasted to decrease when economic conditions are positive. It is necessary to devise measures that prevent indiscreet development behaviors. Also if artificially developed land reverts to forests and fields due to economic depression and population decline in rural areas, it is important to identify the most sustainable way to preserve forests and fields and promote the local economy through constructing environment-friendly recreation and resting facilities that are in harmony with the preserved natural resources. As existing rural residents are aging and autonomous generation renewal within rural local community is unrealistic, the percentage of newcomers in rural areas will increase. Therefore, composition of rural local community will become dynamic in the future and it will change traditional and typical characteristics of rural local community. Hence, it is likely that the new type of local community will be formed and that policy instruments that foster healthy local community will be needed. As we discussed above, rural areas will be more differentiated by a variety of factors and they will confront unexpected and unequal opportunities and threats. However, existing government programmes and projects and development-oriented planning strategies will not be able to solve the problems and make full use of the opportunities. Therefore it is necessary to introduce a rural spatial planning scheme that includes inclusive, smart and sustainable rural development strategies and the detailed and tailored development measures that thoroughly reflect socio-economic and spatial characteristics of differentiated rural areas. The rural spatial planning scheme has to be an integrative scheme that is aggregated with policy instruments relevant to agriculture and rural areas. It means that the rural spatial planning scheme becomes a key foundation of coordinating a variety of overlapped government programmes and projects considering spatial characteristics of rural areas. Also, the rural spatial planning has to be a long-term scheme, and the central and local governments’ plans should be consistent. Researchers: Sim Jaehun, Song Miryung, Lee Junghae, Seo Hyeongjoo Research period: 2018. 1. ～ 2018. 12. E-mail address: jhsim@krei.re.kr 제1장 서론 제2장 미래 전망 모형 구축을 위한 선행연구 검토 제3장 미래 전망 모형의 개발 제4장 농촌 전망 시나리오 적용 및 미래 진단 제5장 계획적 정비를 위한 농촌 공간계획 수립 방향 제6장 결론 및 향후 연구 과제 한국농촌경제연구원 미래 국토 전망과 농촌의 계획적 정비방안 연구(2/3차년도) Rural Prospects and Planning Strategies on Rural Development (Year 2 of 3) KREI 보고서 Sim, Jaehun Song, Miryung Lee, Junghae Seo, Hyeongju 국토 전망 농촌 정비 미래 국토 전망과 농촌의 계획적 정비 방안 연구(3의2차년도)