박성진 김종진 박지원 2020-03-05T16:40:08Z 2020-03-05T16:40:08Z 2019-10-30 979-11-6149-333-6 R887 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/24649 우리나라는 밀, 옥수수, 콩 등 곡물의 대부분을 수입에 의존하고 있어 2007~2008년의 국제 곡물시장 위기와 2011년과 2012년 국제 곡물 가격 급등 시기에 국내 식품 및 배합사료물가의 급등을 경험했다. 이에 수입 곡물의 안정적 도입과 국제 곡물시장 위기 대응체계 구축의 필요성이 대두되었고, 다양한 연구 수행을 기반으로 ‘해외농업개발’, ‘국가 곡물 조달시스템’, ‘국제 곡물 조기경보 시스템’을 구축하였다. 그러나 수입 곡물의 안정적 도입을 위한 체계는 여전히 충분하다 할 수 없으며, 국내 곡물 생산기반도 취약하여 쌀을 제외한 주요 곡물을 수입에 의존하는 상황이 개선되지 못한 실정이다. 이에 따라 향후 국제 곡물시장 위기가 다시 발생할 경우 2007~2008년과 유사한 상황에 직면할 가능성이 있다. 따라서 국제 곡물시장 위기 대응을 위하여 추진된 정책에 대한 점검과 정책 성과를 평가하고, 국제 곡물시장 환경 변화를 반영하여 향후 예상되는 국제 곡물시장 위기 발생 가능성을 고려한 대응체계의 개선 및 재설정이 필요한 시점이다. 이 연구는 2007~2008년 애그플레이션을 계기로 구축된 식량 위기 대응체계를 해외 곡물의 안정적 도입과 식량 위기 대응이라는 시각에서 평가하고, 국내외의 환경 변화를 반영하여 위기 대응체계의 개선 방안을 도출하는 데 그 의미가 있다. Research Background Since the crisis in the international crop market in the mid-2000s, there have been various measures to cope with a food crisis and stably introduce global produce. But the outcome is insignificant. And a system for the stable introduction of foreign crops has yet to be in place. The production base for local staples is not secure, and Korea is still dependent on foreign crops except for rice. Therefore, it is time to review policies implemented to cope with a crisis in the international crop market and to evaluate their outcomes. Also, it is necessary to improve or reset response systems in consideration of possibilities of emergency in the global grain market. We carried out this study to assess the food crisis response system established amid the agflation in 2007 and 2008 from a perspective of the stable introduction of overseas grains and reasonable reactions to a food crisis. Also, we aimed to identify measures to improve the response system by reflecting environmental changes at home and abroad. Research Methodology We examined the state of international grain supply and demand based on overseas and domestic literature and statistical data. Also, we analyzed the state of global farming development and grain procurement at home and abroad and reviewed relevant policy discussions. We conducted a survey targeting experts in companies in demand for international crops, academic scholars, and policymakers. We listened to their opinions on the evaluation of policies, current issues, and priorities, and reflected their ideas in the plans we prepared for policy improvement. We used a time series model to analyze domestic influences from global crop price changes. Also, we reviewed other countries’ measures against international crop emergencies and their efforts for the stable introduction of grains through the cases of Japan, China, and Mexico. Also, we drew up ways for policy improvement by examining examples of countermeasures taken by the domestic petroleum section to overcome emergencies. Findings Korea’s food policy focuses mainly on rice as in the examples of the Grain Management Act, the purchase system, and the comprehensive policy for the rice industry. Also, rice is in the center of the operation of production and reservation systems, while the private sector manages other grains. Although Korea is reliant on the import of staples except for rice, it does not have a solid base as stockpiling to prepare for emergencies. As the private sector leads the import of grains, there are not sufficient efforts for a stable supply from a mid- and long-term perspective. Also, grain importers are small and unable to enter into the global grain distribution field. The import volume of food grains shows stable trends, but that of feed grains is volatile and increases sharply compared with the former. An increase in the consumption of livestock products from income expansion seems to have expanded livestock farmers‘ demand for feed grains. The high volatility in the import of feed grains resulted from the fact formula feed manufacturers select cheap substitute materials through price comparison. International grain prices have been very volatile since the 1900s, although they were overall on the downward track. And global grain market emergencies took place regularly. We found that the market crises came from lean harvests, low inventory, and a fall in productivity rate. In the demand side, significant reasons for emergencies included a temporary surge in a specific country’s import, an expansion in demand for food and feed grains from emerging countries economic growth, and an increase in demand for grains for bio-fuels. Also, oil prices and the dollar value were part of reasons for emergencies in the international grain market, by impacting grain production costs, the prices of substitutes, and export competitiveness. Although international grain prices are stable, an emergency can take place in the market due to price surges caused by an increase in demand for grains for bio-fuels, import expansion in China and Southeast Asian countries, and regular occurrences of El Nino and La Nina from climate changes. Also, macroeconomic factors such as the global economy, oil prices, and dollar value can trigger a crisis in the international crop market. As macroeconomic uncertainties are in the air, an emergency can emerge in the global grain market at any time. Even though domestic grain importers strive to diversify countries of origin and buying times, crop price changes in the international market impact prices paid by Korean importers. Through the inter-industry analysis, we found that grains introduced to Korea are processed through formula feed, milling, starch sugar, edible oil industries, and then supplied to livestock farmers, food processors, and restaurants for final consumption. Influences from imported price changes follow the same route through different sectors. Also, we found that import price rises and falls make asymmetric influences on domestic consumer prices. Specifically speaking, when the import price goes up by 100%, overall consumer prices rise 3.9% (mostly, the impact shows within a year). However, a drop in the import price has no meaningful impact. According to the inter-industry relation table, the ratio of imported grains reflected in the final consumer goods is 0.94%. This data indicates that there is more than a quadruple shock to consumer prices compared with the ratio of imported grains along with a rise in the import price. The data relations mentioned above imply that the consumer price increases from 2007 to 2008 took place mainly because of the price hikes in imported grains. Consumer prices between 2006 and 2008 picked up 7.7%. When applying the result of our study to the import price increases during the same period, the portion of consumer price hikes caused by import price increases amounted to 4.6%, indicating that 59.7% of consumer price pickups resulted from import price rises during the time. Overseas Agricultural development was in pursuit to secure a stable supply of staples as international grain supply and demand were insecure. However, along with the establishment of the 3rd overseas agricultural resource development plan in 2018, endeavors to achieve the initial policy goal of stabilizing grain supply have weakened. Also, the implementation of the “import order” is not likely to be effective when an emergency takes place in the international grain market. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance overseas agricultural development focusing on grain production. Also, mitigation in administrative regulations or financial supports for bringing in crops to Korea should be in place for a set quantity so that Korean corporations holding overseas business can stably manage their business. Also, the government has to build co-operations with other governments to set up an institutional measure so that Korean co-operations can ship in grains they secure overseas in the case of an emergency. The failure in establishing a national grain procurement system implies that the business capabilities of Korean co-operations, their human resources with expertise, and the formation of a cooperative framework among stakeholders are more important than facility infrastructure such as grain elevators. Considering that, Korea needs to build a grain procurement system by using private enterprises entering into international grain value chains. For success in the global grain distribution field, it is necessary to encourage a large number of end-users’ participation. Also, related corporations should enhance capabilities for swift decision-making procedures and grain distribution and develop human resources with expertise. Other essential qualities for success in the international distribution market include a fast collection of various information and networking among stakeholders. The early warning model uses public data, and thus its price forecasting has limitations. Therefore, it is urgent to make a complementary device to prepare for its failure to warn an emergency. To supplement such constraints, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Financial Stability Board (FSB) set identifying weak areas for damage occurrence and working for improvement through consistent monitoring as the goal of the early warning system. In the case of the early warning system for international grains, it is essential to detect weak points through impact analysis of grain price fluctuations and conduct regular monitoring for improvement in responding to emergencies. Japan has long recognized the necessity of overseas grain introduction with regards to food security and continuously invested in foreign agriculture through its general trading firms and Zennoh. In the past, it indirectly promoted grain import by working for international grain production increase and market stability. However, recently, it decided that investments in production could not guarantee a stable grain introduction because of the nature of the international market fluctuated by producing countries or global trading firms' decisions. And it has changed directions toward grain distribution, export, and sales. Also, Japan builds bilateral co-operations with exporting countries to exclude Japan from export sanctions or restrictions. China sees food security an important issue as its demand for grains rises due to population and economic growth. As its reliance on overseas crops such as soybeans is high, the country is implementing various policies for stable introduction from abroad and preparing for international grain price fluctuations. Notably, its overseas investment in agriculture for grain import gives a lesson to Korea. It devised various overseas investment models based on its past investment attempts and projects through many years. It entered into not only production but also all stages of the industry, including processing, distribution, trading, and R&D. Also, non-farming corporations are increasingly investing in overseas agriculture. After Mexico went through the tortilla crisis in 2007, its government introduced the futures program to purchase corn in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) for stable production and food price stabilization. As a result, it was able to stabilize tortilla prices. When an emergency happens in 2011 due to damages to corn production caused by extreme weather conditions and international crop price hikes, the government bought corn call options in the CBOT for grain processing firms (purchasers). The government and processing firms shared 50% of option premiums, respectively, and succeeded in stabilizing corn prices and preventing social unrest. In the energy supply and demand field, the policy for stable oil import can be successful, through oil stockpiling and the support scheme for diversified import sources. Storing does not apply to grains, but the support scheme for diversified import sources is partly usable. Korea imports crops from a couple of countries. So if problems happen to production in these countries or to product safety with regards to the implementation of the Positive List System (PLS), they will negatively impact domestic supply and demand. Therefore, from a perspective of risk diversification, it is necessary to apply a support scheme for diversified import sources. The main content of the emergency response manual set to prepare for any recurrence of a crisis in the international grain market is to bring in grains secured through overseas agricultural development through a shipping-in order. However, its effectiveness is questionable due to insignificant outcomes from overseas development efforts. Therefore, Korea has to make use of all possible response mechanisms, including the shipping-in order to appropriately respond to an urgent situation. For this, it is necessary to rewrite the manual for crisis preparation, improve weakness in domestic value chains, and upgrade forecasting functions of the early warning system. Also, the necessity of establishing a crisis response system should be advertised toward the public. From a mid- and long-term perspective, it is necessary to set up a grain procurement system led by the private sector so that private grain importers will participate in global grain value changes and secure the quantity they need. For this goal, the government should focus on its role in producing timely information and providing it to private firms. Also, it has to encourage agricultural and non-agricultural firms to invest in agriculture to raise the effectiveness of overseas development efforts. In overall areas of the crisis response policy, it is essential to enhance cooperation between the private and public sectors, provide benefits and favors to induce the private sector‘s participation in profitable investments. To achieve this goal, the government should prepare response measures by using futures and forward markets, encourage private capital to flow in investment through cross-border cooperation, and diversify import sources. Also, the government has to implement consistent measures to expand domestic production and supply bases. Researchers: Park Seongjin, Kim Jongjin, Park Jiwon Research period: 2019. 1. ~ 2019. 10. E-mail address: seongjin20@krei.re.kr 제1장 서론 제2장 곡물 수급 현황 제3장 국제 곡물 위기 발생 원인과 재발 가능성 제4장 국제 곡물 가격 변동의 국민경제 영향 분석 제5장 국제 곡물 위기 대응 정책 제6장 주요국 곡물 위기 대응 정책 및 국내 에너지 위기 대응 사례 제7장 위기 대응 정책 개선 방안 한국농촌경제연구원 해외 곡물 도입 정책 진단과 개선 방안 Diagnosis of the Policy of International Grains Import and Measures for Improvement KREI 보고서 Park, Seongjin Kim, Jongjin Park, Jiwon 해외 곡물 도입 국제곡물시장분석과 해외곡물시장정보시스템 구축 및 운영