윤종열 박기환 박한울 2020-03-05T16:40:14Z 2020-03-05T16:40:14Z 2019-10-30 979-11-6149-324-4 R878 http://repository.krei.re.kr/handle/2018.oak/24657 과일 수입은 WTO·FTA 체결 등 시장개방폭 증가로 급격히 증가하고 있으며, 수입되는 과일 품목도 점차 다양화됨으로써 국내 과일·과채류와의 소비 경쟁 심화가 불가피해졌다. 더욱이 식생활의 서구화와 해외여행 경험 증가, 소비자 선호도 변화 등으로 인해 수입 과일에 대한 소비자 수용도 또한 과거보다 크게 높아지고 있다. 이 때문에 국내 과일·과채류 생산은 위축되고 있으며, 자급률 하락은 물론, 국내산 소비량이 매년 감소하고 있어 향후 생산기반 유지에 대한 우려가 큰 실정이다. 이러한 상황 속에서도 수입 과일에 비해 상대적으로 안전한 국내산 과일·과채류의 안정적 공급을 원하는 소비자 욕구는 확대되는 추세이므로 이에 부응하기 위한 대응책 마련이 필요한 시점이다. 따라서 이 연구는 수입 과일의 확대 이후 국내 과일·과채의 수급 동향 및 소비패턴 변화를 파악하고, 수입 과일과 국내 과일·과채와의 대체관계를 명확히 규명하여 그 파급 영향을 분석한 후, 이를 기초로 국내산 수급 안정을 도모하기 위한 대응 전략을 마련하고자 수행되었다. Research Background Since the opening of its agricultural market in the 1990s, the market opening scope expanded along with the conclusion of the free trade agreement (FTA), and the volume of fruit imports started to surge. Lately, not only the import volume gets bigger, but also the imported items and the countries of origin become more diversified. Amid this trend, local fruits have to compete with imported ones in the market. Korean consumers‘ preference for imported fruits is getting high as more people consume imported fruits with unique taste and get familiar with them. As a result, the production base of indigenous fruits has contracted, and consumption has slowed down, too. The scope of fruit market opening is likely to get bigger, because of the expansion of the FTA and changes in agricultural trades along with Korea’s relinquishment of WTO’s developing-country status. Consequently, fruit imports will increase, and types of fruits imported will get diverse. So it is time to discuss policy solutions to the supply-demand instability of local fruits and In Korea, tomatoes, cherry tomatoes, strawberries, oriental melons, watermelons, etc. are often categorized into fruit-vegetables. fruit-vegetables. 　 This study aims to assess the overall status of fruit imports and local fruit production and to analyze the preferences and purchasing behaviors of Korean consumers. Also, this study is to identify imported fruits that can replace local ones and to examine what impacts an increase in the import of such fruits has on the supply-demand side of local fruits and fruit-vegetables. By generalizing such analysis outcomes, the study aims to come up with solutions to maintain the domestic production base and to expand consumption. Research Methodology To examine the background of import expansion, the status of domestic production and consumption, the trends and characteristics of diversified importing sources, and the state of domestic cultivation of subtropical fruit trees, we collected related statistical data and studied relevant literature. Also, we visited organizations and companies for a survey. We conducted a survey targeting 1,000 homemakers or one-person families to inspect purchasing behaviors for imported or local fruits and fruit-vegetables. Also, we commissioned an external expert to write a manuscript for analysis of economic and demographic factors that influence consumer preferences and purchasing behaviors for imported fruits. With regards to analysis on substitution relationship between imported and indigenous fruits, we used the monthly transaction data of wholesale markets for the past 19 years from 2000 to 2018 to examine whether their shipment timings are overlapping. We carried out an empirical analysis of substitution relationships by building a linear approximation inverse/ almost ideal demand system (LA/IAIDS). We analyzed the impacts on local fruits by imported substitutes by creating a partial equilibrium model composed of econometric equations. To examine overseas examples to cope with the expansion of fruit imports, we collected and translated the statistical data of Japan’s fruit imports and the bibliographic data of its policy for the fruit industry. Besides, we visited China to see its fruit production and import state, and the government’s policy trends for the fruit industry. To draw policy tasks in terms of production and consumption for the supply-demand stability of indigenous fruits and fruit-vegetables, we hosted a consultative meeting to listen to opinions of experts from the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation, local governments, and the Rural Development Administration. (The rest is omitted. See the attached file for details.) Researchers: Yoon Jongyeol, Park Kihwan and Park han-ul Research period: 2019. 1. ~ 2019. 10. E-mail address: jyyoon0712@krei.re.kr 제1장 서론 제2장 과일 수입 확대 및 품목 다양화 현황과 배경 제3장 수입 확대하, 과일·과채 수급 동향 및 소비행태 변화 제4장 수입 과일의 국내 과일·과채 대체관계 및 영향 분석 제5장 과일 수입 확대에 따른 국내외 대응 실태 제6장 과일 수입 확대 대응 국내 과일·과채 부문 대응과제 제7장 요약 및 결론 한국농촌경제연구원 수입 과일 품목 다양화에 따른 과일·과채 부문 영향 분석과 대응과제 Analysis of impacts on indigenous Fruits and Fruits- Vegetables Sector from diversified fruit imports and issues to cope with KREI 보고서 Yoon, Jongyeol Park, Kihwan Park, Hanul 수입 과일 과일·과채 수입과일 품목 다양화에 따른 과일·과채부문 영향 분석과 대응 과제