동북아경제협력체 창설의 농업부문 파급효과 계측

Abstract

요 약

중국이라는 세계 최대의 농업 생산국과 일본이라는 세계 최대의 농산물 순수입시장의 중간에 위치한 우리나라로서는 동북아경제협력체 출범이 엄청난 기회인 동시에 도전이라 할 수 있다. 지금까지 관세와 각종 비관세 조치에 의해 보호를 받으면서 경쟁이 제한되어 왔던 중국 및 일본산 농산물과 무한 경쟁을 하지 않을 수 없게 되었기 때문이다. 특히 시장 개방 시 중국산 농산물의 국내 수입 여부는 우리 농업에 막대한 영향을 미칠 가능성이 높아 주요 농산물의 수입가능성에 관심을 갖지 않을 수 없다. 동북아 지역의 핵심을 이루는 한?중?일 3국은 소규모 영농이라는 공통점과 생산물 구성의 유사성으로 인해 상호 경합적이라는 측면을 가지면서도 생산요소 부존 비율이 상이하여 상호 보완적 측면도 지니고 있다. 한국은 토지생산성이 높고 일본은 노동생산성이 높은 대신 중국은 자본생산성이 일본 및 한국보다 높아 농업 분야에서의 특화를 통한 산업내무역이 가능할 것으로 전망된다. 한?중?일 3국간 무역자유화가 농산물 교역에 미치는 영향을 정확하게 파악하기 위해서는 품목별 상대 가격과 시장의 크기, 소비자 기호와 생산 능력 등 경제적 변수 이 외에도 정치, 사회, 역사, 문화적인 여러 가지 요소를 고려할 필요가 있다. 특히 시장경제 체제 도입에도 불구하고 아직 사회주의적 요소가 남아 있는 중국과의 교역 변화를 전망하기 위해서는 농지와 용수, 노동력 등 농업생산요소와 관련된 각종 규제와 관습, 제도 등을 고려해야 한다. (이하 본문참조)

ABSTRACT

Effects of Northeast Asian Economic Cooperation on Korean Agriculture The FTA between China, Japan and Korea (CJK FTA) would be a great opportunity and a challenge to the Korean agriculture at the same time. When the FTA becomes effective, Korean farmers will face full competition without regulatory protection against imported products, such as tariff and non-tariff barriers. The possibility worries Korean farmers, since it has been known that Chinese agricultural products have comparative advantages. China, Japan and Korea constitute the core of Northeast Asia and are sharing some common characteristics in terms of farming, such as small-scale farming and production of similar types of agricultural products, so that they have to compete each other. At the same time, however, factor endowment ratios differ among them, so that they are also in complementary relations. For example, land productivity is highest in Korea, while labor productivity is higher in Japan than other two countries. China commands highest capital productivity in agriculture. These facts imply that there is a possibility of intra-industry trade among the three countries through cooperative specializations in the agricultural sector. The CJK FTA would reduce the total agricultural income in Korea. According to the scenario on rice tariffication and its exclusion from the FTA, the agricultural income would drop by 39% by 2014. It shows that the agricultural income of Korean farmers will get the smallest when rice tariffication is deferred and rice is excluded from FTA. To the contrary, the agricultural income may fall greatly if rice is tariffed and also included in the FTA. But, the simulation shows that the effects of FTA are almost same regardless of rice tariffication, as long as rice is excluded from the FTA. This result conveys an important policy indication that rice should be excluded from the CJK FTA in order to prevent agricultural income plunge. Measured potential bilateral trade(PBT) also suggests that the CJK FTA may expand agricultural trade among the three countries. Korean agricultural import from Japan is expected to increase by 240 percent or 720 million dollars, while export will increase by 90 percent or 580 million dollars due to the CJK FTA. On the other hand, Korean agricultural import from China is expected to increase by 92 percent or 1.9 billion dollars, while the export to China is estimated to rise by 180 percent or 460 million dollars. As a result, in the agricultural trade with Japan, Korea is expected to lose its surplus by 140 million dollars while, in the trade with China, Korea is projected to expand its deficit by 1.4 billion dollars. Effects of the CJK FTA on production and prices of other agricultural products appear to differ in accordance with their relations with rice. Pork has almost no impact from the FTA and rice tariffication. Production and prices of beef and chicken, however, are expected to fall due to the CJK FTA. Qualitative analyses of agricultural competitiveness shows that most Chinese products have absolute advantages in price but not in quality. Considering various conditions of agricultural production in China, such as water supply, land systems, labor productivity and access to consumers in cities, the comparative advantage of Chinese agriculture might be faced with some limitations in the near future. With the growing interests in food safety and higher quality, Korean farmers should also diversify their production and develop niche markets for higher value-added products, such as clean and organic food and environmental friendly agricultural products.

Researchers: Myong-Keun Eor, Chung-Gil Chung, Bae-Sung Kim and Joo-Nyung Heo E-mail Address: myongeor@krei.re.kr