한-인도 CEPA 협상 대응방안 마련

Abstract

인도는 최근 중국과 더불어 경제가 급성장하고 있는 국가 중의 하나일 뿐 아니라 서남아 7개국의 중심 국가로써 지리 및 정치·외교적으로 중요한 위치를 차지하고 있는 나라이다. 우리 나라는 이러한 인도의 정치·경제적 측면 외에 지정학적 중요성을 인식하고 인도와의 경제협력 증진 방안을 모색하여 왔으며, 경제 협력의 일환으로 2004년 10월에 포괄적 경제동반자협정(CEPA: Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) 체결을 위한 공동연구그룹의 구성에 합의하였다. 2006년 2월에는 실질적인 협상을 위해 공동작업반이 구성되어 본격적인 협상이 진행 중이다. CEPA는 상품교역뿐만 아니라 일반적인 경제협력방안도 포함한다는 점에서 일반적인 FTA보다 포괄적인 개념이다. 따라서 인도와 CEPA를 체결한다는 것은 단순히 상품교역만을 촉진시킨다기보다 경제적으로 서로 긴밀히 협력할 것임을 대외에 공포하는 것을 의미한다. 이 연구는 인도와 CEPA 체결을 위한 사전 연구의 하나로써, 인도의 농산물 생산 및 수출 구조를 파악하여 CEPA 체결로 인해 국내 관련 산업에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 국내 부가가치 기준, 영향 분석 결과, 지역 집중도 등을 고려하여 민감품목을 선정하고 민감품목에 대한 양허 작성 방향을 제시하는 데 목적이 있다. 또한 CEPA의 취지에 맞게 농업분야 상호협력 방안도 이 연구에서 모색되고, 우리 농산물의 수출 전략도 일부 제시하였다.

India is the economical and political center of the south-west region of Asia. In consideration of India's strategical importance, Korea prepared for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with India. In the summit held in October, 2004, two countries announced that they reached the agreement in which two countries made a Joint Study Group to analyze the effect of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). Based on the agreement, the Joint Study Group met four times from January, 2005 to January, 2006. In the last meeting, the Group adopted the final report prepared for each government. Based on the recommendation of the final report, two countries announced the opening of a CEPA negotiation in February, 2006 and initiated the first negotiation in March, 2006. In order to measure the effect of an FTA or a CEPA on the domestic products, a partial equilibrium model was developed. Partial equilibrium models used in the previous research assumed that imported goods are homogeneous to goods produced domestically. This assumption led to the overestimation of an FTA effect because domestic price falls to import price that tariff is not levied. Unlike the previous models, this model deals with import goods as a substitute for domestic goods, that is, heterogeneous goods. Then, the domestic industry is affected by the substitution effect between import good and domestic good. The substitution effect is measured as a cross price elasticity in an econometrics model. The larger the cross elasticity, the bigger the domestic influence by an FTA. The difference in quality between foreign goods and domestic goods is reflected into model without additional assumption or variables. 10 years have not passed since Korea began to import from India. Trade pattern is very unstable. In some years, a large quantity was imported and no goods were imported in other years. Thus, an economic analysis is not easy because of the lack of trade data. In this research, most cross elasticities are assumed based on the cross elasticities of other countries. Beef, sesame, onion, chillies, garlic, and grapes are included in the analysis. Most of the beef exported from India is buffalo. Buffalo does not directly substitute domestic beef. Thus, a cross elasticity of Indian beef is likely to be very small. When cross elasticity of 0.01-0.03 is applied, the production amount of the domestic beef industry decreases by 8 to 24 billion won. For sesame, the production amount falls to 45 to 66 billion won when cross elasticity of 0.2-0.3 is adopted. For onion and chillies, the domestic industry is affected by 3 to 14 billion won and 15 to 46 billion won, respectively. Several tariffs and levies are charged when a good is imported through an Indian port, such as Basic Duty(BD), Countervailing Duty(CVD), special Countervailing Duty(spl CVD), and Education Cess(EC). Thus, we need to put all tariffs and levies on the table. In addition, it is necessary to clear the definition of the origin and most-favored nation. A CEPA with India is a good opportunity for the Korean agriculture to export some fruits and food. For example, apples and pears have quality competitiveness in Indian market. It is a good strategy to export goods in the period of Diwali. Diwali is celebrated by all Indian people, irrespectively of region. During this period, the Indian people buys high quality goods, including imported food. Companies that try to show their products to the Inidan consumers may use AAHAR, the international food fair held in Delhi every year. Researchers: Yun-shik Kim E-mail Address: yunshik@krei.re.kr