중장기 쌀 수급안정방안

Abstract

2004년 쌀협상을 계기로 식량정책이 개편되었다. 수매제도를 폐지하는 대신에 공공비축제를 도입하여 식량안보를 달성하고, 쌀농가 소득보전직불제로 농가의 소득안정을 도모하며, 시장기능으로 쌀 수급균형을 달성하는 것이 새로운 식량정책의 골격이다. 시장기능으로 쌀 수급균형이 이루어질 수 있을 것인지에 대해 상이한 시각이 있다. 한편에서는 시장기능에 의존하면 쌀 가격이 급락하고, 벼 재배면적이 줄어들므로 공급이 부족하게 될 수 있다고 주장한다. 다른 한편에서는 쌀농가 소득보전직불제는 쌀 생산을 자극하므로 공급과잉 현상이 지속될 수 있다고 우려한다. 이 연구에서는 여러 가지 시나리오를 설정하여 쌀 수급전망을 시도하였다. 쌀 수급을 전망하는 데에 정부는 공공비축 물량만 관리한다고 가정하였고, 여기에 쌀농가 소득보전직불제 운영방식을 조정하거나 정부가 쌀 수요를 창출하는 등의 정책수단을 고려하였으며, 시나리오별로 도출된 균형쌀 가격과 수입쌀 가격을 비교하였다.

The mid and long-term situation of supply and demand for rice has been analysed. And the way of solving the disequilibrium problem in the case of bumper crop has been studied. It was estimated that the supply and demand for rice will be balanced and the rice price will go up to 158 thousands won per 80kg at the year 2017 without government intervention. The consumption per capita will go down to 66.5kg in the year of 2017, and that does not deviate from the consumption trend. Even if the international rice price is over $500 per ton, and the rice market is changed into the tariff system, the rice market will be stable. The price of imported rice considering the DDA negotiation was forecast at 180 thousand 재n per 80kg in the year of 2017, which is 14% higher than the domestic rice price. The price of imported rice will be 138 thousand won per 80kg in 2012, and 91 thousand won in 2017 if Korea is classified into the developed country status and the international rice price is $400 per ton. A policy program to enlarge the rice supply and shrink the rice demand can be recommended to reduce the shock from the tariff system. The direct payment system should be changed to be coupled with rice production and all the TRQ rice should be supplied to the market. Also the target price of a direct payment program is necessary to be fixed. And the program of supplying rice for processing purpose should be stopped. But the price of imported rice will be 145 thousand won in 2017 if Korea is classified into the developing country status. In this case, the sale amount of TRQ rice to the market should be increased gradually and the target price of a direct payment program should be changed reflecting the market price. And it is not recommended that the structure of direct payment changes to be coupled with production. There will be no rice import with tariff system when the target price is fixed and more TRQ rice is supplied to the market. Researchers: Dong Gyu Park, Tae Hun Kim, Sang Hyen Chai, Yong Sa Kong E-mail address: dgpark@krei.re.kr