밤 재해보험사업을 위한 표준수확량 조사 및 손해평가 방법 수립에 관한 연구

Abstract

밤은 임산물 가운데 가장 중요한 소득 작물이자 최고의 수출품으로 여겨져 왔다. 그러나 2002년과 2003년에 연속적인 태풍으로 인해 생산량이 급감하였고 이에 따라 수출량도 크게 줄어들어 전반적인 산업의 침체가 지속되고 있는 상황이다. 다행스럽게도 2004년과 2005년에는 태풍에 의한 피해가 없었으나, 밤의 수확기인 9월～11월 사이 우리나라 주변에서 발생하는 태풍의 수가 평균 약 12개이며 그 가운데 직접적인 영향을 미치는 태풍의 수는 0.9개임을 감안할 때 매년 태풍피해 가능성을 배제할 수 없는 실정이다. 그러므로 소득의 대부분을 보장하고 경영의 불안정을 해소하여 재생산 의욕을 북돋울 수 있는 재해보험의 실시가 절실히 요구되는 형편이다. 재해보험사업을 실시하기 위해서는 여러 가지 준비가 필요하나 그 가운데 보험금 및 보험료를 결정하기 위한 기초 자료인 표준수확량과 보험금 지급을 위한 절차인 손해평가는 사업실시를 위한 핵심적인 요소로 보험도입을 위해 반드시 필요한 연구이다. 이 연구의 목적은 밤 재해보험사업의 안정적인 정착 기반을 마련하는데 가장 중요한 자료로 여겨지는 표준수확량을 최대한 현실에 맞게 작성하고, 과학적이며 공평한 손해평가 방법을 수립하는 것이다. 밤 재해보험 도입에 관한 연구는 이제 3년차에 접어들었다. 이 연구는 그동안 수집된 자료를 이용하여 표준수확량을 산정하고, 손해평가방법을 마련하는 등 실질적인 사업 도입을 위한 준비결과라 할 수 있다.

Chestnuts had been one of the most profitable crops for a couple of decades. More than fifty thousand farmers were engaged in production during the period. The production amount of 2003, however, decreased and the chestnut industry showed signs of stagnating. The consecutive typhoons which broke out in 2002 and 2003 were considered as the main reason of its dullness. It is strongly required to bring in the crop insurance program for the chestnut to compensate for the loss of profits due to the natural disasters. This study focuses on estimation of the standard yields and setting-up of claims adjustment methods for the chestnut insurance program. Standard yields are the most important materials for the crop insurance program and it come to be bases of insured amount and premium. Stability of the program heavily depends on the accuracy of the yields. Three different yearly production data were classified by age of trees for the main chestnut-producing provinces such as Gwangyang, Sanchung, and Gongju. Yearly amount of production for each age is averaged to make standard yield tables and graphs. No yield graphs reflect theoretical backgrounds, however. The standard yield tables are revised to be possibly utilized for the insurance program. The several age classes are aggregated and their yields are averaged. The revision of the standard yield graphs seem to follow the configuration introduced at the references. Yield of chestnuts are regressed with respect to the degree of the management works of pruning, fertilizing and control of insects to find their contributions to the increase of yields. The results, however, should be confirmed through field studies, since the explanation abilities of data are very low. Japanese system of claims adjustment is carefully studied to check its adoptability under our current situations. Three methods relevant to the chestnut insurance have their own strength and weakness at the same time. It is recommended to introduce them in accordance with time plan. The first method is to offset demage caused by all target casualties. The way of claims adjustment is relatively easy since no field survey is necessary to estimate losses. The premise to apply this method, however, is to restrict eligibility to those who circulates his/her products through a distributor such as a cooperative association and this would reduce the number of policyholder. Since the circulation rate of chestnut through the distributor is just about 70% of all, it should be considered under longest time plan after systemic revision of distribution channel. The second method is estimate the overall losses at a period of production. It is required, however, to have much more precise yield criteria to compare with the final yields. Since the standard yield tables provided in this study remain to be confirmed, this method can be considered under the middle time plan. The last one is the same with the one utilized in crop insurance program for apples, pears and etc. Since we have much experience it is relatively easy to adopt at once. The characteristics of chestnuts should be fully considered as it has been done in this study.Researchers: Lee, Sang-Min, Kim, Eui-Gyeong and Chang, Cheol-SuResearch Period: 2006.6~2006.12E-mail address: smlee@krei.re.kr