UR 이후 농업부문 시장개방 영향 분석

Abstract

우리나라의 농산물 시장은 1986년의 한-미 통상협상, 1989년의 관세 및 무역에 관한 일반협정(GATT)의 국제수지(BOP) 조항 졸업, 1992년의 한-중 국교 정상화 등을 통해 조금씩 개방되기 시작하여 1993년 우루과이라운드(UR) 타결을 계기로 큰 폭의 개방이 진행되었다.

농산물 시장의 개방은 긍정적인 측면과 부정적인 측면의 양면성을 가지고 있으나, 농업계에서는 일반적으로 부정적 영향이 강조되는 경향이다. 따라서 과학적인 분석을 통해 객관적으로 영향과 효과를 규명할 필요가 있다. 일반적으로 시장개방에 의한 농업부문의 부정적인 측면은 수입 농산물의 증가에 따른 국내 생산기반의 위축으로 요약할 수 있으며, 반면에 시장경쟁을 통해 기술 혁신이 이루어지면서 농업의 생산성이나 부가가치가 상승하였다는 점은 긍정적인 측면이다. 우리나라가 지난 10여년 동안에 경험한 농산물 시장개방은 다른 나라와 비교할 수 없을 정도로 빠르게 진행되었으며, 앞으로 많은 나라와 자유무역협정(FTA)이 체결되면서 시장개방이 더욱 빠른 속도로 진전될 것으로 보인다. 따라서 UR 이후의 시장개방 속도와 영향을 분석함으로써, 향후의 농업 협상 및 사후대책 수립에도 유익하게 이를 활용할 수 있을 것이다.

이 보고서는 UR 이후 진행된 농산물 시장개방이 농업부문에 미친 영향을 과학적으로 분석하고 시장개방의 효과를 사후적으로 종합적으로 분석·평가하려는 것을 주된 목적으로 작성되었다. 구체적으로 UR을 포함하여 이후 농산물 시장개방의 내용을 검토하고, 시장개방에 따른 파급 영향을 농업부문 전반 및 품목별로 나누어 분석하였다.

This study aims to analyze the effects of market opening on the Korean agriculture and evaluate the ex post impacts on the industry as a whole and on its major comprising products on an item-by-item basis. Korea entered the GATT in 1967. Since then, the domestic agricultural market has steadily been opening up to foreign goods, and today the market opening rate stands at 99.1% (as of 2007). In terms of agricultural import trends, grain imports have stagnated; however, livestock products and fresh agricultural produce such as vegetables and fruits from overseas have been entering the domestic market at increasing rates. Moreover, the market opening has led to changes in the demand for agricultural products. The additional market opening after the UR led to an increase of consumer surplus and a decrease of producer surplus. The decreased amount of producer surplus is estimated at 563.3 billion won, and the increased amount of consumer surplus is estimated at 611.8 billion won for a total of 17 agricultural items. On the whole, there is 48.5 billion won of increased supply on average annually. However, because the number of consumers is much larger than that of farmers, the damages from expanded market opening is concentrated on farm households. According to an inter-industry relation effect analysis, a decrease of 829.6 billion won in the total agricultural output is estimated due to both production decrease and the price decline from market opening. The opening of the livestock market, in particular, is speedier than the farm produce market, but the speed of market opening for vegetables and fruits is remarkable. As a result, domestic agricultural indexes including GDP, farm household income, cultivated area, and livestock inventory are showing declines. As for grains, the import amount increased while domestic production decreased. Accordingly, the role of the government for the grain market has been curtailed. In the case of farm products, the domestic price declined due to import expansion, and due to the decline of domestic price, cultivated area and farmer's income dropped. Although the number of farmers cultivating farm products fell, attempts are being made to gain competitiveness and new technologies, and realize a scale of economy. In the case of the livestock sector, the GDP grew steadily together with the improvement of scale, specialization, and production technology, but the increase rate of Korean beef growers' income slowed down. As for price fluctuation, the variation increased for beef and pigs but decreased for broilers. The implications for policy making from this study are as follows: first, it is important to gain public sympathy about agricultural market opening and trade liberalization; second, the process to attain public consensus is essential in trade negotiations; and third, it is necessary to intensify ex ante domestic measures for agricultural market opening.

Researchers: Kim Jeong-Ho, Cho Young-Su, Lee Young-Ho E-mail address: jhkim@krei.re.kr