세계농업 전망모형 Aglink 2008 운용·개발연구

Abstract

As an agricultural outlook model developed in 1993 by the OECD Secretariat in cooperation with member countries, the OECD-Aglink model has been used by the Secretariat for the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Report and quantitative analysis of the world agricultural market. Especially since 2005, the model has continued to be refined through joint research with the FAO. The model was subdivided into modules by country and region and the scope of outlook was expanded (Aglink-Cosimo model). The purpose of this study is twofold: to build the ability to use the model and conduct applied analyses of various kinds for coping with trade negotiations and to make rational agricultural policies by forecasting and analyzing policy changes and the agricultural environment home and abroad. The major contents of this year's research are as follows: In the first chapter, we introduced the background and aims of this study and the difference between this year's study and other years' studies with a review of preceding research and a brief explanation of the Aglink 2008 model. In the second chapter, we reviewed the current status of climate change and analyzed its effect on world supply and demand and price of major grains based on historical data. In the third chapter, we analyzed the possible effect of climate change on the world grains market and its impact on the domestic livestock sector based on several scenarios related to world grains production.

Researchers: Young-Su Cho, Youngho Lee e-mail Address: yscho@krei.re.kr