농업부문 전망모형 KREI-ASMO 2007 보완 및 운용에 관한 연구

Abstract

KREI-ASMO (Korea Rural Economic Institute - Agricultural Simulation Model) was developed by the KREI in 1995, and has been used to produce mid- and long-term outlook as well as to analyze policy alternatives for the Korean agricultural sector. The model is a partial equilibrium simulation model. KREI-ASMO is divided into five sub-models; ① a sub-model for forecasting macro-economic variables, ② an agricultural input sub-model, ③ a crop sub-model, ④ a livestock sub-model, and ⑤ an agricultural macro variable sub-model. The statistical data base has been renewed every year and the structure of the model has been upgraded every three or four years. Several improvements of the KREI-ASMO 2007 are; ① acreage share equations among several crop groups are replaced by acreage response equations of individual crops, ② import demand functions of major commodities for major countries are estimated, ③ recursive procedure is replaced by simultaneous equilibrium procedure to find out equilibrium prices, and ④ some policy variables representing government payments are considered in farm income equation of the agricultural macro variable sub-model, as well as in the acreage response equations of the crop sub-model.