경제여건변화가 농업에 미치는 영향과 과제

Abstract

2008년 하반기부터 본격화된 미국의 금융위기의 여파로 세계적인 경기침체가 가시화되면서 국내경제는 주식시장과 환율이 불안정하고, 실물경제가 위축되고 있다. 많은 경제전망기관들이 내년도 우리 경제 전망이 밝지 않을 것으로 예상했다. 이러한 국내외 경제여건 변화는 경제 일반뿐만 아니라 농업부문에도 부정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상된다. 이 연구보고서는 최근의 경제변화에 따른 국내 농업 부문 대응 방안을 수립하는 데 기초자료를 제공할 목적으로 작성되었다.주요거시경제지표들의 동향과 전망치를 검토하고, 그것들이 주요 농산업부문과 총량부문에 미치는 영향을 계측하였다. 대부분의 농산물 생산이 감소세를 나타내고, 농자재 가격 상승에 따라 경영비가 증가하여 농업부가가치와 소득이 정체 또는 감소할 것으로 분석되었다. 단기적으로 농가의 경제적 타격을 완화시킬 수 있는 대책이 필요하고, 중장기적으로는 농업의 경쟁력을 향상시켜 위기에 대한 대응력을 배양할 필요가 있을 것이다.

The United States financial crisis is affecting not only world economy but also Korean economy resulting drastic shrinking object economy including consumption and investment. Many experts agree that this economic stagnation continues at least two years. Korean agriculture is expected to be negatively influenced by this shock. This study is carried out to analyze the impact of change in economic conditions including GDP growth rate, exchange rate, and international oil price on Korean agriculture and suggest some policy issues. According to our analysis, higher exchange rate and international oil price lead to more agricultural production costs, which reduces agricultural income and value added. It is estimated that agricultural production including rice decreases at an annual rate of -0.2∼-2.3 percent. Due to increase in intermediate input costs, agricultural value added and income is expected to be continuously decreased for five years 2008∼2012. This implies that Korean agriculture will record minus growth unless new growth momentum such as expanding agricultural export is provided. Farm household agricultural income is also forecasted to be dropped for the years. In 2012, farm household agricultural income is expected to be 6,858∼9,421 thousand Korean won depending on the situation of external conditions. Off-farm income is forecasted to be shown a slight increase. As a result, farm household income will be stagnant or decreased. In 2012, farm household income is expected to be 28,953∼32,594 thousand Korean won. Policy measures mitigating farm household economy difficulties are to be institutionalized. Under the system, subsidy for fuel and fertilizer would be automatically provided if the prices of those inputs are above a certain level. In mid and long term, improving agricultural competitiveness is most important for coping with external shocks.