농축산물 선행관측 시범사업 연구 - 채소류를 중심으로 -

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to execute pilot project of Agricultural Outlook which will be provided with information about acreage, production, expected price before farmers' decision making on seeding or planting. In 2009, the commodities on pilot project of 2010 agricultural outlook was determined with two items(onion, chinese cabbage). Onion and chinese cabbage's pilot outlook projects have been published from last winter. The research scopes can be divided by three. First, it is to enhance the monitoring system on onion and chinese cabbage for mid-term preceding outlook. Second, it is to build the monthly demand and supply model systems on onion, chinese cabbage, green onion and white radish in order to predict acreage, production, expected price etc. before farmers' decision making on seeding or planting. Third, it is to develop an early warning index on onion and winter chinese cabbage. It was essential to enhance the monitoring system of onion and chinese cabbage for efficient mid-term preceding outlook. Agricultural outlook & information center in KREI expanded sample size on farm households, and regional advisory committee such as experts work in nursery company, kimchi processing plants, storage company, foreign trade company etc. We also built the monthly outlook models on onion, chinese cabbage, green onion and white radish which were produced in last winter. To reduce prediction error and to access realistic forecasting, commodities were subdivided by a various species. Onion was separated by precocious species and mid-late ripening species. Chinese cabbage was also divided by five kinds(winter, green house, spring, summer, autumn species). The item director can conveniently control statistic data and outlook result because the monthly model is formed by MS-Excel for item director to control easily and also possible to simulate the various scenarios. If the data has been changed in the model, the model automatically calculate the outlook result and revise the graph again. And item director can compare the forecasting result and survey data in model system. Model system also give item director the choice between outlook result and short-term data result. The models of green onion and white radish were built only for winter season due to sample size problem. however, it is essential to build the demand and supply model of other kinds(spring, summer, autumn etc.) for green onion and radish. It is necessary to give outlook information's consumers a criterion to decide how the predicted price from outlook model is higher or lower than the fair price. We developed early warning index on onion and winter chinese cabbage in this project. Following the result of model analysis, the level of the early warning was respectively divided in five steps(normal, attentive, cautious, alert, serious) in two sections of over level and less level than the fair price. All of them mentioned above is main difference between precedent studies and this research.