세계농업 전망모형 AGLINK-COSIMO 2009 운용·개발 연구

Abstract

As an agricultural outlook model developed in 1993 by the OECD Secretariat in cooperation with member countries, the OECD-AGLINK model has been used by the Secretariat for the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Report and quantitative analysis of the world agricultural market. Especially since 2005, the model has continued to be refined through joint research with the FAO. The model was subdivided into modules by country and region and the scope of outlook was expanded (AGLINK-COSIMO model). The purpose of this study is twofold: to build the ability to use the model and conduct applied analyses of various kinds for coping with trade negotiations and to make rational agricultural policies by forecasting and analyzing policy changes and the agricultural environment home and abroad. The major contents of this year's research are as follows: In the first chapter, we introduced the background and aims of this study and the difference between this year's study and other years' studies with a review of preceding research and a brief explanation of the AGLINK-COSIMO 2009 model. In the second chapter, we reviewed the recent medium-term outlooks of world economy from the major economic institutes such as Global Insight, IMF, OECD etc. In the third chapter, we analyzed the possible effect of the global macroeconomic environment on the world agricultural market by setting up several scenarios related to global economy recovery and changes in oil prices.