쌀가루 수요 전망과 공장 건립 타당성 분석

Abstract

통계청은 2009년 10a당 쌀 생산량이 사상 최대 수준인 534kg으로 발표하였다. 2008년에 이은 대풍 영향으로 쌀 가격이 작년보다 많이 떨어졌다. 쌀 농가의 경영안정을 도모하기 위한 “쌀 소득보전 직접지불제도”가 마련되어 있지만, 농가는 쌀 가격 하락을 심각하게 받아들이고 있다. 생산량이 많아지면서 미곡종합처리장 등 유통업체도 벼 매입 가격이나 물량을 결정하는 데에 적지 않은 어려움을 겪었다. 앞으로 이러한 현상이 반복될 가능성도 배제할 수 없다. 또한 중장기적으로 쌀 생산량은 수요량을 초과하여 쌀 가격은 추세적으로 하락할 가능성이 있다. 따라서 쌀 수급안정을 도모하기 위해 가공식품용 쌀 소비를 확대하는 방안을 검토할 필요가 있다. 이 연구에서는 쌀 가공식품산업 현황과 가능성을 심층적으로 분석하였다. 가공식품용 쌀 소비량은 쌀 가격에 민감하게 반응하는 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 정부가 가공식품용으로 방출하는 쌀가격을 1% 인상하면 가공식품용 쌀 소비량은 0.89% 줄어드는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 밀가루 가격이 상승하면 가공식품용 쌀 소비량이 늘어나는 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 가공식품용 쌀 소비량이 늘어나려면 정부의 가공식품용 쌀 공급가격은 밀가루 가격과 연동되어야 하는 등 정부의 역할이 중요하다는 것을 의미한다.

Since the trend is that rice will be in oversupply, the policies that seek to expand the demand for rice (for example, by using rice as the raw material for making processed food products) are deemed to be necessary to stabilize rice price. Even if the direct payment subsidizing rice income decouples from production, the decreasing trend of rice price is expected to be maintained. The rice consumption for making processed food products in Korea is on an increasing trend. However, the yearly price volatility is very high. Since the government releases the rice for making processed foodstuffs according to market supply and demand, the rice consumption fluctuates sharply depending on the amount of rice released. It is analyzed that when the price of the rice for making processed food products increases, the consumption of the rice decreases. If the price of the rice increases 1%, the rice consumption falls by 0.75%. Especially if the price of the rice the government supplies for making processed food products increases 1%, the consumption amount would decrease by 0.89%. What this means is that the role of the government is important in expanding the rice consumption for use in processing. As the raw material for use in making some processed food products, rice is analyzed to be a substitute to wheat flour. If the rice price becomes higher than wheat flour price, the rice consumption decreases, whereas wheat flour consumption increases. This means that the stability of rice price in relation to wheat flour price is very important for stable growth of rice-processed food manufacturers. The demand for rice for producing wet-milled rice flour is expected to increase to 50,000~140,000 tons depending on estimation method. Considering the increasing trend of rice consumption for wet-milling and the will of the government, the rice consumption for wet-milling may increase to about 50,000 tons in 2020. The amount of wet-milled rice flour that member companies of KRFA (Korea Rice Foodstuffs Association) intend to buy is estimated to be about 100,000 tons. However, the possibility of a gap between intention and actual undertaking should be taken into account. The R10 campaign, which was launched to promote rice consumption, is now underway and about 140,000 tons of rice flour are expected to be consumed. However, since food consumption patterns don't change overnight, it seems likely that this would take a lot of time. In Japan, too, policies that seek to expand the consumption of rice flour are underway to replace wheat flour consumption. However, the consumption remains stagnant at 100,000 tons, and of this amount, wet-milled rice flour is estimated to account for less than 20,000 tons. If the current environment for investment continues, the investment appeal is analyzed to be low since the IRR (internal rate of return) is about 2%. If the price of MMA rice continues to stay at 335 won/kg in the future too, the rate of return is estimated to exceed 10%. If the price of the raw material is maintained at 500 won/kg, the internal rate of return will be about 7%. The price level that would not incur loss is analyzed to be around 800 won/kg.

Researchers: Dong-Kyu Park, Chang-Gon Jeon, Woong-Yeon Lee Research period: 2009. 12. - 2010. 5. E-mail address: dgpark@krei.re.kr