농산버섯 산업 현황과 관측 기법 연구

Abstract

기준 약 5,000억 원의 시장규모로 성장하였다. 그러나 최근에는 불완전한 시장 정보를 바탕으로 농가별 품목전환과 대량공급이 이루어져 수급불안에 따른 가 격불안정이 확대되고 있다. 이로 인해 생산·유통·소비 과정에 참여하는 경제 주체들과 정책담당자의 합리적인 의사결정을 위한 보다 정확하고, 신뢰성 있는 농산버섯 관측정보가 요구되고 있다. 이 연구의 목적은 가격 안정화를 위한 수급조절 기능을 강화할 수 있는 농업 관측기법을 마련하는 데에 있다. 이를 위해 먼저 농산버섯의 수급, 유통, 가격 등에 대한 현황을 살펴보고, 주요 품목별 재배 특징을 파악하였다. 또한, 특용 작물 생산실적 및 지역별 농업기술센터 자료 등의 최신 통계자료를 적용하여 표본 설계를 실시하였으며, 과거 버섯관련 기초자료를 이용한 월별 가격 및 장·단기 수급 모형을 구축하여 버섯관측을 위한 기본체계를 마련하였다.

mushrooms. Detailed research objectives were to ①examine the status of the domestic mushroom industry, ②analyze the cultivation, consumption, and prices of oyster and white button mushrooms, and ③suggest new market forecasting techniques by building short and long-term forecast models. The mushroom industry has grown by 9.31 percent on average annually since 1991, but the growth rate has stagnated recently due to price falls that resulted from mass production. Big changes are underway in the domestic mushroom market due to the development of new varieties and cultivation techniques. Mushroom prices have continued to fall because of mass production and the development of substitute varieties. Cultivated area and farms were also greatly reduced due to high production cost. Farm gate prices vary immensely and monthly prices fluctuate so much because of mass production all year round. Prices are highly unstable due to imbalance in supply and demand resulting from the random conversion of cultivation items due to lack of market information. Market forecasting techniques are essential for stable supply and demand of mushrooms. Sample farms were carefully chosen to study variations and make accurate predictions. In addition to farm size variation and scheduled output and input of sample farms, data were also collected from local monitors. Such basic data will be put into a database to provide reliable forecast information and thereby contribute to stabilizing the forecast system for new survey items. The foundation of a forecast system for oyster and button mushrooms is constructed through better understanding of the mushroom industry's current status and forecasting techniques. And it is necessary to prepare an operating mechanism through which accurate results can be obtained by continuously assessing and improving the system based on such groundwork. Researchers: Shin Yong-Kwang, Han Seung-Yong, Shim Min-Hui, Ban Hyun-Jung Research period: 2010. 4. - 2010. 7. E-mail address: ykshin22@krei.re.kr