세계농업 전망모형 AGLINK-COSIMO 2010 운용·개발연구

Abstract

이 연구는 세계농업 및 세계농정의 변화에 따른 합리적인 농업정책 수립과 대외협상 등에 대응하기 위해 모형운용 능력을 배양하고 다양한 응용분석을 수행하는 데 그 기본적인 목적이 있다. 또한 본 연구에서는 최근 국제 곡물가격 수급 변동 및 가격 상승에 따른 국내 축산업에 미치는 영향에 대해 분석을 시도하였다.

As an agricultural outlook model developed in 1993 by the OECD Secretariat in cooperation with member countries, the OECD-AGLINK model has been used by the Secretariat for the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Report and quantitative analysis of the world agricultural market. Especially since 2005, the model has continuously been refined through joint research with the FAO. The model was subdivided into modules by country and region and the scope of outlook was expanded (AGLINK-COSIMO model). The purpose of this study is as follows: to build the ability to use the model and conduct various applied analyses to cope with trade negotiations and to make rational agricultural policies based on forecasts and analyses of policy changes and the domestic and international agricultural environment. Also, we try to analyze the effects of changes in the supply and demand of grains on the domestic livestock market. The major contents of this year's research are as follows: In the first chapter, we introduced the background and aims of this study and the differences between this year's study and other years' studies with a review of preceding research. Also, the AGLINK-COSIMO 2010 model is briefly explained. In the second chapter, we reviewed the mid-term outlook of the world economy recently projected by major economic institutes such as Global Insight. According to most market forecasting agencies, the Korean economy will start to regain its strength in 2010 and recover until 2011. They also forecast that world crude oil price will increase slowly, and as developing countries regain their economic strength quickly, the world economy will recover slowly. In the third chapter, we analyzed world market supply, demand and price of grains. The world grain supply will decrease because of unforeseen weather changes. However, the world demand for grains will increase due to livestock feed consumption and ethanol production. Accordingly, grain price will rise. Specifically, we forecast that world corn price will average at US$229/MT, wheat at US$246/MT, barley at US$184/MT, and soybean at US$380/MT in 2010/11. In the last chapter, we analyzed the effects of increases in world grain price on the domestic livestock market. According to our forecasts, livestock production will increase a little (0.0~1.3%), but the value added and income will decrease by -1.4~19.5% and -1.7~24.1% respectively.

Researchers: Suk-Ho Han, Jung-Min Lee, Hyun-Jung Ban e-mail Address: shohan@krei.re.kr, fantom99@krei.re.kr, ban0530@krei.re.kr