농촌·농가인구모형 개발연구

Abstract

농가인구의 감소추세는 지속되고 있으며 농가인구의 상당수가 65세 이상으로 고령화가 이미 심각한 수준에 이르렀다는 것은 새로운 사실이 아니다. 농촌인구의 감소세 및 고령화도 심화되고 있어 이에 대한 연구수요가 증대될 것으로 판단, 한국의 농가인구 및 농촌인구모형을 개발하였다. 이번 연구는 농가인구 및 농촌인구모형 개발, 모형운영, 모형평가 등의 합리적인 절차이행을 통해 모형의 실행능력을 증진시키고, 농업관련 연구수요에 대응할 수 있는 방향으로 진행하였다.

Agriculture population is a foundation of agriculture structure. Agriculture, rural population decrease influence agricultural policies to be implemented for the future and there is concern about slowdown in productivity. The purpose of this study is to build the ability to use the model and conduct applied analyses of various kinds and to make rational agricultural policies by forecasting and analyzing agricultural, rural population change. The major contents of this year's research are as follows: In the first chapter, we introduced the background, aims of this study and the difference between this year's study and other years' studies with a review of preceding research. In the second chapter, we reviewed the recent agricultural population and outlook and explained major features. In the third chapter, we reviewed the recent rural population and outlook and explained major features. In the fourth chapter, we simulated how some economic shock will affect the agriculture, rural population. In the fifth chapter, we suggested the weak points and possible improvements based on developed agricultural and rural population model.Researchers: Suk-Ho Han, Myung-Whan Kim, Jeong-Min Lee, Hyun-Jung BanResearch period: 2010. 4. - 2010. 9.e-mail Address: shohan@krei.re.kr, kimkim@krei.re.kr, fantom99@krei.re.kr,ban0530@krei.re.kr