환태평양경제동반자협정(TPP) 사례와 논의 동향 분석

Abstract

환태평양동반자협정(TPP: Trans-Pacific Partnership)은 아시아태평양 지역 경제통합을 목적으로 2005년 6월 뉴질랜드, 싱가포르, 칠레, 브루나이 등 4개국 체제로 출범한 다자간 자유무역협정으로 2015년까지 관세를 철폐하는 것을 목표로 하고 있다. TPP는 창설 초기에 영향력이 크지 않은 다자간 자유무역협정이었으나 미국이 적극적으로 참여를 선언하면서 주목 받기 시작하였다. 2008년 2월 미국이 이 협정에 참여할 의사를 표명하였고, 그해 8월 호주, 베트남, 페루가 참여 의사를 밝혔으며, 2010년 10월 말레이시아가 참여를 선언하였다. 2010년 11월에는 일본이 적극적으로 TPP에 참여할 의사를 밝히면서 우리나라도 협정 참여를 검토하는 단계에 이르게 되었다. 캐나다, 필리핀, 대만 등도 협정 참여에 관심을 표명하고 있어 TPP는 APEC이나 ASEAN+3(또는 6)보다 먼저 아시아태평양 지역을 대표할 경제통합체의 역할을 할 가능성이 높다. 일본, 미국 등 기존의 TPP 회원국 이외에 아시아태평양 지역 국가들 가운데 가입을 검토하고 있는 대부분의 나라들이 TPP 회원국이 될 경우 우리나라도 가입 여부를 적극적으로 검토할 수밖에 없을 것으로 예상된다. 이렇게 될 경우 후발 가입국은 이미 체결된 TPP 내용을 대부분 수용해야 할 입장이 되기 때문에 현재 우리나라가 맺고 있는 FTA보다 더 높은 수준의 시장개방이 불가피할 전망이다. 이 연구는 뉴질랜드, 싱가포르, 칠레, 브루나이 등이 이미 체결한 4개국 간의 TPP 내용 분석하고, 가입 협상을 진행 중인 국가들의 협상동향을 파악하여 우리나라의 TPP 관련 정책 수립에 필요한 자료를 제공하기 위해 수행되었다. 특히 이 연구에서는 농업분야의 TPP 가입에 따른 추가적 시장개방 범위 또는 부담에 대한 분석을 수행하였다.

Trans-Pacific Partnership(TPP) is a multilateral free trade agreement among New Zealand, Singapore, Chile and Brunei launched in June 2005 to promote economic integration of the Asia Pacific region. It aims to eliminate tariffs by 2015. With the joining of new member countries including Japan and the United States looming, it is time for Korea to review the possibility of joining the TPP proactively.

As new members are required to accommodate the existing agreements of the current TPP, it is inevitable for Korea to open up its market at a higher level than the current FTAs it has signed. New Zealand agreed to scrap tariffs on every product (including produce) within ten years while Chile set the tariff elimination period at up to 12 years. Singapore maintained tariffs on 6 product categories. But they are mostly agricultural produce and it lifted the tariffs right after joining the TPP. Brunei agreed to get rid of tariffs on all agricultural products except for tobacco and alcoholic liquors.

Against this backdrop, as the main principle of TPP is zero tariffs for all products, it is highly unlikely that Korea, if it intends to join the treaty, is allowed waivers in market opening except for especial cases. It remains to be seen that what level of agreements that five countries that are currently under TPP membership negotiations (i.e., the US, Peru, Australia, Malaysia and Vietnam) achieve. Based on the negotiation result, Korea may be able to secure some level of flexibility.

Even though rice among grains is excluded from concession, it is expected that pressures on additional opening for major other grains such as soybeans, potatoes, and corns is building. In particular, the pressures on opening the Korean market to US soybeans and potatoes become large. To Chile and Peru, Korea is expected to widen its market for their corns and potatoes.

In the case of livestock products, there are increasing pressures to open the Korean market up to US refrigerated chicken, beef, honey, milk powder, cheese and other diary products. But when it comes to pork, Korea faces less pressure for additional opening as the Korea-US FTA allowed 10 years of grace period for tariff eradication. On the contrary, as the Korea-ASEAN FTA mandated a relatively low level of market opening for livestock products, Korea would face pressure for more market opening for ASEAN if it joins the TPP. With Chile, it may broaden its market access to refrigerated chicken, beef and diary food except for yogurt.

As the Korea-US FTA agreed to eliminate the tariffs on many fruits only after a grace period of over ten years, fruit is the trickiest area of market opening to the US with the TPP. Currently, banana, pineapple and tangerine coming from ASEAN countries are excluded from tariff elimination and the tariffs on apples and pears will be partially lifted (20% and 50% respectively) based on the Korea ASEAN FTA. In the case of the FTA with Chile, apples and pears are excluded from tariff elimination and discussions on market opening for tangerines, bananas, oranges, pineapples and other tropical fruits are scheduled to be launched after DDA negotiations. All in all, there will be increasing pressure on market opening with Korea’s joining of TPP.

In conclusion, the benefits of Korea’s joining the of TPP will not be significant. Korea already has concluded FTAs with Chile, Singapore, the US, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei, the members of TPP negotiations and FTA negotiations are under way with New Zealand and Australia. But losses from additional market opening for agricultural products will be visible. Therefore, it needs to review the possibility of joining the TPP after carefully monitoring TPP negotiations of 5 new countries and decisions of Japan and the assessing negative/positive impacts of additional market opening of agricultural/non-agricultural products.

Researchers: Choi Sei-Kyun(Ph.D), Dae-Hee Chung and Gyu-Dam Choi(Ph.D)

Research period: 2011. 3. - 2011. 7. E-mail address: skchoi@krei.re.kr