중국 농업의 지역별·품목별 성장특성 및 시사점

Abstract

이 연구는 국내 농산물 수급에 커다란 영향을 미치고 있는 중국 농업의 지역별, 품목별 모니터링체계 구축이 필요하다는 문제의식에서 출발하였다. 중국의 지역별 농업구조 변화와 농작물 품목별 주산지형성 및 변동 과정을 분석하여 지역농업구조와 품목별 지역분포 특성을 명확하게 파악하고 이를 토대로 정책적 시사점을 제공하는데 이 연구의 목적이 있다.

This study was conducted based on a realization that it is necessary to build a monitoring system that can monitor agricultural production in China by region and product since agricultural production in China exerts great influence on the supply of agricultural products in the domestic Korean market. This study aims to identify the structure of regional agriculture and characteristics of geographical distribution of agricultural products in China by analyzing the structural changes of agriculture at the regional level and how main producing areas are formed and transformed. Based on this, the study aims to present policy implications. The policy implications derived from this study are as follows: First, it is necessary to select agricultural commodities of interest that have direct and indirect effect on the domestic agricultural market, build a regional product-based monitoring system that monitors the supply and demand trend and related policies in main producing regions, and disperse related information. The agricultural commodities and producing regions of interest are grains in the three northeastern provinces (Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang), vegetables in the middle and low reaches of Yangtze River (Shandong and Hebei) and the northwestern region (Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region), fruits in the middle reaches of Yellow River (Gansu and Shandong), and livestock products in the southwestern region (Sichuan). Second, it is also urgently needed to develop a forecasting model to predict the market outlook of Chinese agriculture. In order to measure the direct and indirect impact of changes in the supply and demand of Chinese agricultural products on the domestic Korean market and use the obtained data to set up policies in a timely manner, it is necessary to develop and operate a forecasting model predicting the outlook of Chinese agriculture. Third, the local production structure of Chinese agriculture and its structural change pattern are same as Korean agriculture. What this implies is that the two countries are more likely to see their competing relationship intensify than their complementary relationship grow and, accordingly, intra-industry trade is highly unlikely. Therefore, Korea should prepare measures to secure competitiveness in each of the commodities that are labor and land-intensive and less competitive than China. As for Korea's capital-intensive agro-foods and high-tech processed foods, it is necessary to actively support their export to China. Also considering the fact that increase in agricultural imports from China is inevitable, it is more important to set up a safety-focused management system of agricultural products than to increase trade barriers to protect domestic consumers. Fourth, institutional and policy factors are important factors influencing the changes in the production structure of Chinese agriculture, and as long as China maintains a socialist market economy unique to China, the factors are expected to play important roles in the future too. It is necessary to step up the monitoring of institutional and policy changes in the China's agricultural system and strengthen the ability to respond to challenges by building various forms of network between the authorities of the two countries in various fields such as agricultural cooperation and sanitary inspection. Fifth, the northeastern part of China, especially Heilongjiang Province, is the main producing region of short and mid-grain rice, the production of which is getting more concentrated and thus posing a potential threat to rice production in Korea. It is necessary to carefully consider its impact on the domestic rice industry in the process of Korea's switch to a tariffication system and during negotiations for a free trade agreement between Korea and China. As for the importing of condiment vegetables from China, the focus should be placed on improving their safety rather than raising tariff and non-tariff barriers to protect domestic consumers since the reality is that it is inevitable to import them due to the supply and demand imbalance in the domestic market. To this end, it is necessary to build a strict import management system while strengthening sanitary inspection in main producing regions in China.