한-EU FTA 농업분야 국내영향 및 대 EU 수출가능성 분석

Abstract

이 연구는 한-EU FTA 타결 시 예상되는 우리나라 농업부문의 생산 감소와 수출 증대 효과를 추정하는 데에 초점을 맞추었다. 곡물류 가운데 쌀은 양허에서 제외되었고 EU의 곡물류 경쟁력이 미국에 비해 뒤지기 때문에 크게 수입이 증가할 품목은 없을 전망이다. 과일과 채소도 일부 가공용으로 사용되는 것을 제외하면 신선 상태로 수입이 증가하여 우리 농업에 피해를 줄 품목은 많지 않다고 본다. 고추, 마늘, 양파 등 중요한 채소류는 현행관세가 그대로 유지되기 때문에 영향이 없다. 그러나 축산은 돼지고기와 낙농품을 중심으로 피해가 우려된다. 피해를 최소화하기 위해서는 시장개방에 대비한 정부의 정책이 차질 없이 집행되고 농업인들의 경쟁력 제고 노력이 배가되어야 할 것이다.

After 2 years of negotiations, the Korea-EU Free Trade Agreement(FTA) has made a conclusion. This study focused on the effects of Korea-EU FTA on the Korean agricultural sector. This study tries to reflect final results of the negotiation. Korea exports about $50 million of agricultural products including processed food to the EU. On the other hand, Korea imports about $2 billion of agricultural products from the EU. Therefor potential loss from Korea-EU FTA in the Korean agricultural sector can be foreseeable. Sensitive products for Korea-EU FTA include meat, except beef, and dairy in the livestock sector, tomatoes, grapes and kiwifruits in the horticultural sector. Impact analysis focused on the livestock sector. Increased imports of EU agricultural products are estimated to reduce Korean agricultural output by 306 billion won in the 15th year of implementation. It is far below the case of Korea-US FTA effects on Korean agriculture. Pork industry would be the biggest looser from the Korea-EU FTA and the value of production is estimated to be reduced by 55.6 billion won after 5 years of implementation and it would be increased to 121.4 billion won by the final year of implementation. Dairy and chicken industries output is estimated to be reduced by 80.5 billion won and 33.1 billion won respectively. For the horticultural sector, production of kiwifruits and grapes is projected to be reduced by 7 billion won and 3.2 billion won respectively. Tomatoes industry can be affected negatively from the Korea-EU negotiation by 5.4 billion won reduction of production. Korea is evaluated to maintain and strengthen competitive edge against EU in some agricultural products such as fruits, tobacco leaves and drinking beverage. However, export promotion effects of the Korea-EU FTA on the Korean agricultural sector are expected to be restrictive. Major Korean commodities exported to the EU can increase exports because of the negotiation. Fifteen major export items exporting to the EU account for 78 percent of total export are estimated to increase export by $50 million from the basis of maximum exports. Export promotion effects evaluated from the basis of recent export performance data expected to be by $7 million.

Researchers: Choi, Sei-Kyun Research period: 2008. 9. - 2009. 5. E-mail address: skchoi@krei.re.kr