한·중 FTA 대비 양국간 농산물 교역구조 변화 전망 :자유무역협정(FTA) 체결에 따른 농업부문 대응전략

Abstract

전 세계적으로 지역무역협정이 급속하게 확산되는 가운데 한·중 양국은 FTA 추진을 염두에 두고 민간공동연구에 이어 산·관·학 공동연구를 완료하고 공식협상에 앞서 민감성에 대한 사전협의를 진행하고 있다. 그동안 민간공동연구나 산·관·학 공동연구 과정에서도 확인되었듯이 한·중 FTA 협상이 추진되는 경우 농업분야는 양국간 이해가 상충되는 대표적인 분야로서 비교열위에 처한 우리나라의 입장에서 가장 민감한 분야이기도 하다.

그동안 한·중 FTA 농산물분야 협상 추진에 대비하여 다수의 연구가 축적되었다. 이들 연구는 주로 한·중 FTA 체결에 따른 국내 농업의 파급 영향, 농산물분야 협상의 예상 쟁점과 대책 그리고 대응방안 등 시급하게 요청되는 현안에 초점을 맞추어 이루어졌다. 그러나 중국의 농업구조 변화가 한·중 농산물 교역에 미칠 파급 영향에 주목하여, 교역에 영향을 주는 제요인들을 종합적으로 고려하여 양국간 농산물 교역구조의 변화를 전망하고 이를 토대로 한·중 FTA 협상시 참고할 수 있는 시사점을 제시한 연구는 상대적으로 부족하였다.

이 연구는 한·중 양국 농업의 성장 특성과 구조변화의 방향성을 비교 분석하는 것으로부터 시작하여 양국간 농산물 교역의 현황 및 장애요인, 중국의 농산물 수급 현황 및 중장기 전망 등 한·중 농산물 교역에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 종합적으로 검토하여 향후 교역구조의 변화를 전망하고 몇 가지 이슈를 중심으로 시사점을 제시하는데 초점을 두고 추진되었다.

Agricultural trade between Korea and China shows a clear one-way trade from China to Korea and consists mainly of inter-industry trade. The products available for intra-industry trade are rare with the exception of several processed foods. This overwhelmingly unbalanced trade structure makes it difficult for the two countries to avoid severe competition and build a mutually beneficial cooperative relationship in the agricultural sector, and is not expected to change in the near future. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Korea and China in 1992, the share of grain in their bilateral agricultural trade has decreased, but the shares of vegetables and processed foods have increased. The pattern will set in because grain trade is quite restrictive to the supply and demand in the Chinese domestic market and most of fruits, vegetables, and livestock products trade is not allowed due to inspection and quarantine barriers, which is not expected to be completely removed in the near future. The implications from our analyses on relevant issues in the agricultural trade structure between Korea and China are summarized as follows: First, Chinese agriculture is now on the stage of labor productivity-led growth and changes its production structure to the one relying on intermediate inputs gradually. Hence, the rises of input prices including agricultural wage and land rent are likely to threaten the price competitiveness of Chinese agricultural export. Second, China is a young market economy and the economy is not sophisticated yet due to the government's frequent interventionist economic policies. Most of all, China still clings to the socialist system in politics. Thus, resource allocation in the Chinese agricultural sector would be distorted by other factors rather than market principles. In this case, the prospect that the structural change in Chinese agriculture will follow a stylized path, through which developed countries already passed, will lead to a mistaken prediction of its change and then fail to properly act in the light of the Korean agricultural sector. Third, agriculture in two countries has similar production structure and development course, but also has distinctive resource endowments and growth stages, which lead to the current overwhelming one-way trade and leave not much room for complementary relation in the near future. It is necessary to find constructive cooperation plans between the trading partners towards co-prosperity under a more liberalized trade in the future, focusing on the establishment of a specialization system reflecting their comparative advantages in agricultural production. Fourth, the removal of inspection and quarantine barriers usually takes quite a long time, because the import prohibiton of a product on account of plant disease, pest, and animal disease is lifted through a various risk assessment process having eight steps. Recently, however, exporting countries and international organizations are seeking to reduce the period of the risk assessment and to set a common standard. Bilateral quarantine negotiations are also affected by political and diplomatic situations and may accelerate the procedure. Fifth, the Chinese government has adopted several policies for promoting disease-free agricultural production regions. Also, China is trying to introduce the concept of regionalization in its FTA negotiations, persuading their trade partners. Therefore, the Korean government should prepare for a possible request of the Chinese government on the issues in the forthcoming Korea-China FTA negotiation. Sixth, the survey results reflect the change of consumer perceptions about Chinese agricultural products toward a more positive direction. Korean residents in China and restaurant managers, who have experienced Chinese agricultural products more than general consumers, responded more positively about taste, food safety, and prices of Chinese agricultural products and showed higher willingness to pay than general consumers did. It suggests that general consumers are likely to become more positive on Chinese agricultural products if they have more opportunity to experience these products, implying the potentiality of import increase of Chinese agricultural products when a bilateral FTA between the two countries goes into effect. Seventh, it is necessary to establish a monitoring system about Chinese agricultural products and regional products, performing ordinary surveillance on supply, demand, price, and relevant policies of China, for the important products in Korean agriculture. Furthermore, it is also required to develop and manage the ‘China Agriculture Forecasting Model’ which is applicable to evaluate direct and indirect impact of change in Chinese production and market circumstance and to respond quickly with proper domestic measures.

Researchers: Hyoung-Jin Jeon, Sei-Kyun Choi, Myong-Keun Eor, Suk-Ho Han, Han-Phil Moon, Dae-Hee Chung, Min-JI Nam and Jun-Ho Seung E-mail address: hjchon@krei.re.kr