쌀 생산 및 소비량 통계 개선방안

Abstract

현재 쌀 생산량과 소비량 등 수급통계에 대한 이해당사자의 신뢰도가 낮으며 시장안정을 위한 정부의 시장개입 효과도 크지 않은 실정이다. 시장안정을 위해서는 수급통계의 신뢰성이 전제되어야 하며, 이러한 필요성에 의해서 수급관련 통계의 문제점을 분석하였다. 그 결과 생산량 조사 방식의 정확성이 떨어지며 쌀 생산량은 과다하게 추정하는 것으로 분석되었다. 7대 품종 중 10a당 생산량이 600kg인 호품벼 재배면적이 2007년 0.01%에서 2010년에는 27.8%로 늘어났다. 하지만 작황조사 표본수는 줄어들었으며 재배면적 비중 변화도 반영하지 않고 있다. 쌀 소비량은 통계청이 발표하는 추정치보다 적다고 판단하는 시각이 있다. 외식 비중이 늘어나고 종류도 다양해지고 있는데, 통계청이 쌀 소비량을 조사할 때 외식은 가정에서의 쌀 소비량과 동일한 것으로 가정하고 있기 때문이다. 조사결과 외식 중에서 한식이 차지하는 비중이 40% 수준으로 가장 높고 피자 등 전문점 비중은 10%대 수준인 것으로 나타났다. 이 연구에서는 수급통계의 개선방안을 제시하였다. 품종별 재배면적 비중이 변하였으므로 조사표본도 이를 반영하여 조정되는 것이 바람직하다. 또한 현백률을 90.4%로 일률적으로 조정하는 것보다는 주기적으로 현백률을 조사하여 현실을 반영하는 것이 필요하다. 또한 쌀 소비량 조사의 정확성을 제고하기 위해 외식업체를 대상으로 쌀 소비량을 조사하고, 가공업체의 쌀 소비량도 포함해야 한다.

The current survey system on rice harvest production level does not reflected the changes of the cultivation area in terms of rice varieties. Considering the yield differences due to the rice varieties and the increased acreage of high yield varieties in recent period, the survey sample need to reflect these changes in the population. Statistics Korea estimated rice production by applying Hyeonbaekryul (milling ratio) 92.9%. This inherited standard came down from the past practice when the rice is short to meet the need. But Hyeonbaekryul is gradually lowered responding to the consumer high-quality rice preference. In recognition of this issue, the Statistics Korea decided to apply Hyeonbaekryul 90.4% from the 2011 year production. There still exist the possibility of over-estimation, since the new criteria is still higher than Hyeonbaekryul 88~89% of the National Agricultural Products Quality Management Service. Future survey approach should reflect the yield differences due to the impacts of local productivity, varieties and climate changes. It is reasonable to adjust the survey sample and methods depending on the acreage changes in terms of rice varieties. In addition, the aggregation methods need to be changed from the current simple average to weighted one if necessary. In the case of Japan survey on rice crop, they select the survey sample reflecting regional differences in terms of the terrain, weather, varieties and applying weighting scheme rather than simple average to enhance accuracy. To minimize the possibility of over-estimation in the future rice production survey, it is desirable to apply the adjusted Hyeonbaekryul reflecting periodically surveyed results rather than applying a fixed level. Considering the survey results on RPC and analyzed results of the National Agricultural Products Quality Management Service, the new rate of 90.4% is still high to reflect the reality. The rice consumption level in case of eating-out is estimated by assuming that it is the same as the average consumption within household. There also exist another possibility of over-estimation, since the eating out number surveyed include the case that non-grain food(meat, noodle etc), rice cake, bread and other processed food is provided by other household. Survey results of eating-out show that the Hansik is ranked the highest as 40 % and restaurants specific to pizza and others is appeared as 10%. Given the variety of forms of eating-out, it can be inferred that the rice consumption level in case of eating-out is less than the average consumption level within household, thus the current estimate of the rice consumption is over-estimated For the rice consumption survey within the household, several issues have been raised such as exclusion of special household like single and foreign households, composition ratio between farm and non-farm households, and weighting scheme for aggregation. Since the current rice consumption survey result does not include the consumption in the business sector, the total rice consumption level cannot be exactly estimated. For the inventory survey in the business sector like grain processing companies, the inventory level of rice produced previously is investigated at the end of October. The accuracy of this investigation is considered to be poor, since the grain processing company like RPC (Rice Processing Center) does not recognized the importance for this survey, they are busy in purchasing newly produced rice during the survey time, and they feel information on their inventory level as business sensitive issue. The establishment of the independent survey system is required to address the over-estimation issue in the rice consumption survey within household. Especially it is necessary to adjust the sample composition and weighting scheme in order to address issues such as big difference between sample and population in terms of farm and non-farm composition ratio due to the auxiliary use of other survey system. To do this, the weighting scheme need to be reviewed and the sample number of non-farm need to be increased in the long-run. In addition, the rice consumption level in the business sector, which is surveyed but not published, need to become official statistics for the public and to be incorporated into the final estimate of rice consumption level. In the long-run, the approach Japanese rice consumption is estimated can be considered as alternative one. They estimates rice consumption per capita based on the total consumption level, which is the total supply minus inventory level. This approach can reduced the expenses of consumption survey but needs the reliable total supply estimate, which includes the level of production, import, export, and inventory. Considering the early harvesting schedule in recent periods, it is necessary to adjust the survey period to September to enhance the reliability of the survey.

Researchers: Dong-Gyu Park, Dae-Heum Kwon, Woong-Yeon Lee Research period: 2011. 6. - 2011. 9. E-mail address: dgpark@krei.re.kr