국제 곡물가격 변동성의 구조변화 검증

Abstract

The agricultural commodity price spike of 2006-2008 has spurred fears of global food insecurity and raised concerns of structural changes in the agricultural market environment. Extreme price volatility of agricultural commodities poses a major threat to both producers and consumers in developed and developing countries. The primary objective of the study is to test the structural changes in volatility of international grain prices. The empirical results show that a single structural change in volatility occurred in wheat and corn market over the 2000-2010 period, specifically on September 20, 2006 and May 24, 2006, respectively. For soybean market, multiple structural changes in volatility occurred during the period 2000-2010, specifically on September 24, 2003, August 3, 2005, and July 11, 2007. To cope with high price volatility in agricultural markets, policy measures should improve market functioning and increase countries' readiness to respond to external shocks.

The agricultural commodity price spike of 2006-2008 has spurred fears of global food insecurity and raised concerns of structural changes in the agricultural market environment. Extreme price volatility of agricultural commodities poses a major threat to both producers and consumers in developed and developing countries. The primary objective of the study is to test the structural changes in volatility of international grain prices. The empirical results show that a single structural change in volatility occurred in wheat and corn market over the 2000-2010 period, specifically on September 20, 2006 and May 24, 2006, respectively. For soybean market, multiple structural changes in volatility occurred during the period 2000-2010, specifically on September 24, 2003, August 3, 2005, and July 11, 2007. To cope with high price volatility in agricultural markets, policy measures should improve market functioning and increase countries' readiness to respond to external shocks.