비축사업 성과분석과 발전방안

Abstract

최근 급격한 기상변화가 빈번하게 발생하면서 국민 경제와 직결되는 농산물 가격변동이 심화되고 있다. 이에 정부는 저장성 있는 농산물을 성출하기에 수매하여 산지가격을 지지하는 수매비축제도와 수급상 국내 생산이 부족한 품목은 수입을 통하여 비축을 실시하는 수입비축제도를 운영하고 있다. 비축사업이 효율적으로 운영된다면 시장가격이 상승할 때 비축물량을 시장에 방출하기 때문에 시장 가격을 하락시키는 효과가 있다. 이러한 효과가 중장기적으로 지속된다면 생산자 소득이 안정되고 소비자 후생은 증대되는 효과가 있을 것이다. 향후 농산물 시장의 개방이 가속화 되고 생산자 단체의 자율적 수급조절 기능이 중시되는 상황에서 비축사업의 객관적 평가와 발전방안이 제시될 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 비축사업의 문제점을 파악하고, KREI-KASMO를 이용하여 수매비축사업 및 정부가 국영무역을 통하여 운영하고 있는 고추, 마늘, 양파, 참깨, 콩, 팥과 관련된 비축사업의 효과분석을 실시하였다. 비축사업을 통하여 수매 및 방출을 실시하였을 때 시장가격이 어떻게 변동하는지를 객관적으로 측정할 수 있는 지표를 개발하였다. 또한 평가결과를 바탕으로 비축사업이 효율적으로 운영될 수 있는 발전방안을 제시하였다.

The government is running Purchase and Reserve System to purchase storable agricultural products during the main sale seasons to support farm price and Import and Reserve System to reserve imported products which is not sufficient for supply and demand only by domestic production. From nowadays, liberalization of agricultural market is accelerating and self-controling function of producer group for supply and demand is considering more importantly that suggestion of an objective evaluation and development strategy is necessary. Therefore, this study identifies problems and analyzes effect of Reserve System -related to chillie, garlic, onion, sesame, soybean and red bean- running by government through state trading using KREI-KASMO. In addition, we suggest improvement of evaluation indicators and seek development plans for Reserve System. In this study, we pointed out some problems of Reserve System such as decreasing domestic acreage, incomplete self-controling function of producer group for supply and demand and continuous increase in reserve cost and TRQ handling of private sector. We implemented post evaluation(such as producer's surplus and consumer's surplus) based on the estimation of the domestic market price change according to the change of market supply caused by Reserve System in the past using KREI-KASMO 2011 model. In this analysis, we excluded government revenues from the Reserve System. And for the effect analysis of Reserve System, we supposed that there was no reserves in the past(made a scenario) based on the past governments' reserve quantities(baseline). The result of the analysis shows that social welfare of Purchase and Reserve System for soybean and garlic during the recent six years(2006~2011) was estimated to 6,770 million won. On the other hand, social welfare of Import and Reserve System for 6 products during the recent six years(2006~2011) was estimated to 945.5 billion won. The Reserve System is highly likely to be undervalued by using current evaluation indicators. To solve this problems, C.V.(coefficient of variation) of off-season wholesale prices is considered for an alternative. As a result of new evaluation indicators, 2009/10 target value of Reserve System was not accomplished, but 2010/11 target value was accomplished. Operation of the reserve system can be improved if 1) some amount from contract cultivation can be used for Purchase and Reserve System, especially Chinese Cabbage, 2) diversification of import management and establishment of a foreign corporation are considered for Import and Reserve System, and 3) professionalism of Reserve System management is required. Researchers: Byoung-Ok Choi, Suk-Ho Han, Jun-ho Seung and Urim ChoResearch period: 2011. 12. - 2012. 5.E-mail address: bochoi@krei.re.kr