국제곡물선물시장의 분석과 활용방안 : 국제곡물시장 분석과 해외곡물시장정보체계 구축 및 운영(1/3년차)

Abstract

최근 국제 곡물가격이 또 다시 상승하여 곡물수입에 더 많은 비용을 지불해야 하고, 곡물가격의 변동성이 확대됨에 따라 보다 큰 가격위험에 직면하게 되었다. 이에 대한 대응방안의 하나로서 국제곡물 선물시장을 활용하여 가격변동성에 대응해야 한다는 목소리가 더욱 힘을 받고 있다.

이러한 수요에 부응하고자 본 연구는 곡물 선물시장을 분석하고 이를 이해하기 위한 메커니즘을 살펴 보면서, 이러한 수요에도 불구하고 국제곡물 선물시장 활용에 어려움을 겪는 요인도 살펴보았다. 이러한 종합적인 연구를 토대로 국제곡물 선물시장 활성화를 위한 정책 제언을 하기 위한 것이다.

본 연구에서는 먼저 식품균형표를 바탕으로 세계 곡물시장 동향분석을 통한 품목 간 비교분석, 품목별 특징 및 세계 곡물시장의 현황을 살펴보았다. 그리고 3장에서는 국제곡물 선물시장을 분석하고 특히 상품선물시장으로 유입된 국제투기자본의 영향이 국제곡물 선물가격에 어떠한 영향을 주었는지 살펴보았다. 그리고 4장에서는 해외곡물 선물시장의 활용실태와 활용 부진의 원인을 분석하고 곡물 선물시장 활용방안을 제시하고 있다. 또한 각국 품목별 주요 국가에 대한 상세 정보의 확충방안과 상품시장의 금융화 쟁점 검토를 통해 곡물시장의 정보집결지로서의 곡물선물시장 정보의 확충방안을 제시하고 있다.

Background of Research Recently, world grain price surged again which is a big burden to Korean economy. World grain price surged in 2004, 2006~08, 2010~12 even in 2000s and it tends to expand its volatility after 2007. The increase of grain price leads to the decrease of imports which creates imbalance in domestic demand and supply while related food industry as a whole faces more difficulties. It also has a great pressure on the inflation. Moreover, the expansion of volatility in such period makes traders difficult to decide when to buy or sell grains due to uncertainty of price. As a countermeasure to price volatility, the necessity of hedging through international commodity futures market has been repeatedly suggested and in particular, since it is suspected that the financialization of international commodity futures market owing to massive inflow of financial capital is a cause of the surge and volatility of grain price, it is necessary to analyze it thoroughly and to prepare a countermeasure. On the other hand, the level of utilization of commodity futures market of Korea is insignificant and mostly the importers are exposed to the price volatility. Therefore, for the utilization of commodity futures by Korean importers, it is necessary to find out the cause that hampers the utilization of commodity futures and to prepare a measure to vitalize it.

Method of Research The background of the recent surge and expansion of volatility of world grain price is that firstly, medium-longterm factors of demand and supply are changed so that the increase ratio of demand exceeds that of supply and secondly, the impact of the inflow of financial capital to the futures market occurs additionally, which is an external factor in the sense of traditional grain market. Therefore, in chapter 2, in order to provide effective information, this study implements analysis on world grain market such as a comparative analysis of the trend of world grain market and among commodities as well as an analysis of major countries per commodities. In chapter 3, a method was searched to expand information related futures market through examining the issues on the inflow of financial capital in futures market. In chapter 4, necessary factors and utilization method were discussed to utilize overseas grains futures market. For this discussion, USDA PS&D data from 1960 to 2011 was analyzed as major factors in food balance sheet, while literature and data concerning commodity futures were analyzed.

Research Results and Implications As a result of the analysis of world grain market, though there were differences per commodities, there was no great imbalance in demand and supply as production and consumption increased continuously. However, in case of corn, special demand such as bio-energy increased rapidly and the trade volume and stock ratio of major exporting countries stayed unchanged even though production increased. Moreover, the ratio of grain trade was around 10% of total production which suggests that the grain market is a thin market. Also, it was also suggested that grain market is a market centering suppliers since exporting countries were North America, South America, Australia, Europe and Southeast Asia, which were limited per commodities. Since 1990s, however, it was noted that countries other than the U.S. became strategically produces grains as exporting commodity. The background and the condition of the inflow of financial captial and its accompanying issues and implications were examined concerning commodity market financialization, and it was pointed out that the loop-hole of institution was acted as a background such as large volume purchase according to institutional investors' portfolio theory and a regulation of modernization of commodity futures. The major issues examined were the increase of grain price and the expansion of price volatility owing to the inflow of financial capital in futures market in the form of commodity index, the increase of basis risk owing to the impediment to the convergence of spot price and futures price, the expansion of co-movement among grain commodities as well as grain and energy price, etc. Lastly, as a result of the study on the method to utilize commodity futures by domestic grain importers, it was pointed out that the biggest problem were the prejudice on furues and the lack of the recognition of target price, and a method was proposed to provide customized education and incentive through an association of people concerned and political support to induce nurturing of experts and participation of specialized institution as well as government's acting as a risk management agency. Moreover, it was implied that information storage of basis and monitoring of Disaggregated and Supplemental Commitments of Traders (DCOT and SCOT) are also important in order to utilize futures market in the aspect of information utilization.

Researchers: Myung Hwan Sung, Kwon Dae Heum, Yoon Jae Woong, Yoon Byung Sam Research Period: 2012. 1～2012. 12 E-mail address: mhsung@krei.re.kr