한·칠레 FTA 국내대책의 경제적 효과 분석 : 자유무역협정(FTA) 체결에 따른 농업부문 대응전략

Abstract

우리나라는 2004년 칠레와의 FTA 협정이 발효된 이래 세계 최대의 경제권인 EU 및 미국과도 FTA 협정을 체결하여 현재 45개국과 8건의 FTA 협정을 이행 중에 있다. 또한 미국과 더불어 G2를 구성하고 있는 중국과의 FTA 체결을 위한 정부간 공식협상도 시작되었다. 이와 같이 FTA 협정이 확산됨에 따라 농산물 시장개방 폭이 확대될 수밖에 없어 국내 농업생산 감소와 가격 하락 등 농가 피해가 우려되고 있으며 그에 따라 FTA 국내대책이 필요한 실정이다.

정부는 지난 2004년 한·칠레 FTA 체결 당시 ‘선대책 후비준’ 원칙에 따라 1조 2천억 원의 기금을 조성하고 FTA 국내대책을 수립하여 2010년까지 7년간 집행한 바 있다. 이후에도 한·미 FTA와 한·EU FTA를 계기로 모두 25조 원에 달하는 재원으로 농가 피해보전과 경쟁력제고 등을 위한 투융자계획을 수립·시행하고 있다. 이러한 농업분야의 대단위 투융자 사업이 소기의 목적을 달성하고 실질적인 효과를 거두기 위해서는 기존 대책에 대한 경제적 영향 평가가 요구된다. 특히 모든 사업이 완료된 한·칠레 FTA 국내대책의 성과와 효율성을 평가하여 현재 시행 중에 있거나 향후 수립될 FTA 국내대책 및 농업분야의 투융자에 반영할 필요가 있다.

이 연구는 사업이 완료된 한·칠레 FTA 국내대책의 실제 사업실적 자료를 활용하여 사후적으로 경제적 효과를 평가하기 위한 연구이다. 유사한 선행연구에서 사용된 여러 가지 평가지표에 따라 정부 사업의 효율성과 생산성을 평가하였으며 폐업지원금과 중장기 투융자의 경제적 효과를 정량적으로 계측하였다.

Background of Research At the time of the signing of the Korea-Chile FTA, there was much concern that the FTA would cause heavy damages to the overall domestic fruit industry. But unlike the concern, the domestic fruit industry was able to maintain a production level similar to the one before the FTA, although there were overall market price increases. The purpose of this study is to conduct an ex post economic assessment of the domestic measures related to the Korea-Chile FTA as seven years have passed since the coming into effect of the free trade agreement in 2004.

Method of Research An empirical analysis was carried out in three ways. First, a non-parametric equilibrium displacement model (DEA) and the Malmquist productivity index were used to evaluate productivity and efficiencies of the government policies for implementing the Korea-Chile FTA. Second, cost-reduction effects were calculated by constructing a regional and periodical panel model using the investment and financial results of the domestic FTA measures for the fruit industry. In addition, the effects of investment and financial measures on the farmers' selling prices of fruits were estimated using an inverse demand function. We calculated the effects of quality improvements and product diversification on increasing the added value. Finally, the effects of policy changes such as FTA tariff cuts, business closure subsidy, and increases in mid- and long-term investments and finances on the market equilibrium were evaluated using the EMD for the main items that are imported from Chile.

Research Results and Implications The regional differences in productivity and efficiency have shown that the regions adopting the FTA subsidy retained higher productivity and efficiencies than the regions that did not receive the subsidy. The investment and financial support for the Korea-Chile FTA was shown to have partly contributed to production increases, production cost reductions, increases in the added values of final products, and distribution cost reductions. The EDM showed that social welfare reduction from the tariff cut of Chilean grapes is estimated to have stood at 5.3~117.6 billion won and the increasing effect of investment and finance is estimated to have stood at 21.4~78.7 billion won. Producers' surplus and consumers' surplus were estimated to have decreased by 2.4 billion won and 4.9 billion won, respectively, as a result of the business closure subsidies. The reduction in the supply of grapes by the business closure was estimated to have the effect of increasing the sales amount of grapes by 2.4 billion won through the increase of domestic selling prices. As a result, the business closure subsidy policy seemed to have caused a decrease in consumers' surplus without producing any positive effect on the production side. Seen from a comprehensive perspective, the domestic measures in response to the Korea-Chile FTA can be evaluated to have the input-output ratio of almost 1. If the effect of welfare reduction caused by the tariff cut is reflected and the imperfect substitution relationship between domestic and imported grapes is considered, the domestic measures may be an inefficient one that would result in an input-output ratio of less than 1. Consequently, the assessment of the social efficiency of domestic FTA measures will vary depending on the severity of damages from the import. As shown in the case of grapes, not only the supply curve of other fruits shifted downward, but the demand curve also shifted upward. If the width of fluctuations in the demand curve gets larger, the effect of investment and financial support on social welfare increase can be greater. In conclusion, it is necessary to expand investment and financial support to accelerate quality improvement and development of new varieties and eco-friendly agricultural products.

Researchers: Hanpil Moon, Myong-Keun Eor, Hanul Park, Seungho Oh, Iksu Jeon, Sang-Gon Jeon Research period: 2012. 1. - 2012. 12. E-mail address: hanpil@krei.re.kr