국제곡물시장분석과 해외곡물시장 정보시스템 구축 및 운영

Abstract

이 연구는 국제곡물시장 분석을 위한 연구사업과 관련정보를 해외곡물시장정보시스템에 주기적으로 제공하는 운영사업으로 구분된다. 연구사업으로는 한국농촌경제연구원 국제곡물 계량모형을 바탕으로 중국, 미국, 브라질, 호주의 곡물 수급에 변동에 따른 시나리오 분석을 통해 가상의 곡물 가격 변화를 분석한다. 국제 곡물가격 예측을 위해서는 다변량시계열기법인 VAR 모형을 이용하여 밀, 옥수수, 대두의 선물가격 예측모형을 개발한다. 해외곡물정보시스템 운영사업은 구축된 시스템을 바탕으로 보다 상세한 정보를 추가·보완하며, 「해외곡물시장동향」자료를 정기적으로 발간한다.

Background of Research The objective of this study is to provide various information on world grain market to policy makers and related industries. For this objective, development of world grain price prediction model, causal relationship on domestic and international price gaps and effect of international grain price fluctuations on domestic prices are analyzed. Meanwhile, major information on world grain market is provided in the Korea Rural Economic Institute's World Grain Market Website.

Method of Research This study is divided into two parts. First is research part for world grain market analysis and second is operational part to provide related information to the world grain market information system. Hypothetical grain price fluctuations are analyzed by exporting countries through a scenario analysis. To predict world grain prices, a VAR model which is a multivariate time series technique is used to develop a predicting model for wheat, corn and soybean. World grain information system's operational part maintains their system by adding and supplementing detailed information step by step and publications “World Grain Market” periodically.

Research Results and Implications Medium and long term world grain supply-demand prediction shows that production and consumption will make demand-supply balance. However, the range of fluctuation on yearly production is increasing due to recent climate changes. Exporter/importers' policy changes according to production fall and global economic changes are also causing imbalance in supply and demand. According to the results of world grain market scenario analysis, the price elasticity of international soybean price to Chinese soybean import is 0.44. Since year 2004/05, the rise in Chinese meat consumption has increased international soybean price by 27.8$/t during 8 years. Price elasticity of international corn price to U.S. corn (Bio ethanol) import is 0.15. Since year 2004/05, corn price rose 7.9$/t during 8 years. The price elasticity of international soybean and corn prices to Brazil production is 0.8 and 0.1 respectively. Since year 2004/05, international soybean and corn price fell 48$/t and 4.6$/t each during 8 years. The price elasticity of international wheat to Australian wheat output is 0.1. The deteriorating weather increased the wheat price by 10$/t since year 2004/05 for 8 years. To operate international grain information system, we need to examine methods to provide information, review composition of contents and improve ways to deliver suitable situation of domestic grains. Also, we need to satisfy users' information demands and conduct surveys to understand users' needs on processing information. Through above research, we must reinforce abilities to react on repeated rise and falls of world grain prices. We need to deliver accurate information of world grain price fluctuations, construct international grain price prediction models for related industries and consumers, and help to react in sudden changes. Meanwhile, we must aim to manage grain prices for domestic price stabilization and diversify transaction methods to stabilize primary agricultural product prices to stabilize domestic food consumption market.

Researchers: Myung-Hwan Sung, Suk-Ho Han, Mi-Yeon Son, Won-Yong Kim, Ki-Ho Jeong Research Period: 2013. 1～2013. 12 E-mail address: Myung-Hwan Sung(mhsung@krei.re.kr <mailto:mhsung@krei.re.kr>) Suk-Ho Han(shohan@krei.re.kr <mailto:shohan@krei.re.kr>) Mi-Yeon Son(sonmy@krei.re.kr)