신기후체제에 따른 농축산식품부문 영향과 대응전략(1/2차년도)

Abstract

교토체제가 끝나가는 시기에 파리 기후변화협정이 공식적으로 발효되었다. 새로운 국제 규범에 따라 온실가스를 줄이고 기후변화에 적응하기 위한 인류의 노력은 미국의 탈퇴선언에도 불구하고 중단할 수 없는 숙명이 되었다. 스스로 목표를 정하여 지구온난화에 대응하겠다는 범지구적인 노력에 동참하기 위해 우리나라도 목표를 제시하고 새로운 기후변화 대응 계획을 수립하였다. 식량 공급이라는 중요한 역할을 수행하는 농축산식품 분야의 경우 새로운 목표 달성을 위한 변화에 동참하기는 쉽지 않은 것이 사실이다. 그러나 기후변화가 심화되는 경우 직면하게 될 위험과 식량 공급시스템의 취약성을 고려하면 오히려 적극적인 참여와 노력이 요구된다.

지구온난화를 막기 위한 노력은 비용을 수반하게 된다. 특히 자연환경에 대한 의존도가 높은 농축산식품 분야는 변화에 적응하기 위한 많은 시간과 비용이 필요한 실정이다. 이 연구는 온실가스를 완화하고 적응하는 과정에서 발생하는 경제적인 영향을 측정하고 분석하여 가장 효율적인 방법을 찾아가기 위해 수행되었다. 내년에는 본 연구 결과를 바탕으로 농축산식품 부문뿐만 아니라 우리나라 경제 전반에 걸친 영향을 추정하게 될 것이다.

Background of Research Since the Paris climate change agreement officially took effect in November 2016, humanity has started a new climate regime beyond the Kyoto regime. This study aimed to measure the impact of Korea's participation in the new climate regime and implementation of voluntary goals on the socio-economic sectors including the agriculture, forestry, livestock and food sectors, and prepare countermeasures. To achieve the final objective of presenting the agriculture, livestock and food sectors' systematic and viable strategies for effective greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and climate change adaptation in the new climate regime, this first-year study analyzed economic ripple effects of mitigation and adaptation methods to be applied due to the acceptance of the new regime.

Methods of Research To analyze the impact of the process of accomplishing national goals of mitigation, marginal abatement cost analysis was applied. Concerning adaptation, because concrete national goals were not presented, scenarios linked with farm-level profit maximization were set up, and the impacts by each scenario were measured.

Research Results and Implications To achieve the goal of cutting Korea's GHG emissions and additional reduction for raising the goal in the new climate regime, much effort is needed to lower GHG emissions in non-energy sectors. For this, it is urgent to develop a method for GHG reduction in non-energy sectors that can prove the reduction result transparently and scientifically. Also, it is necessary to first reduce GHG emissions due to livestock excretions, because the proportion of the emissions is the highest in the agriculture, livestock and food sectors. The development of bioenergy, a way to use emission sources in non-energy sectors as energy, can cut GHG emissions in both sectors. A representative method is to utilize livestock excretions as energy sources. Promoting the local food movement can reduce GHG emissions owing to the transport of agricultural products. Although this may not be included in the direct emissions reduction performance of the agricultural and livestock sector, it can contribute to environmental policy in accordance with the government's consumption policy. Last, it is required to seek a way to promote a certification system of low-carbon agricultural products. If farmers take part in the system actively, it will not be difficult to accomplish the reduction goal, and there will not be a problem in raising the goal for a while. However, because motivation for participating in the system is very weak, solutions to it are urgent. The research result shows that the temperature rise and changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change have various effects on potential yields of crops, tolerance of production functions, the optimum amount of inputs, production management costs and so on. Therefore, characteristics of each crop should be considered in adaptation policies. As for vegetables, the optimum input of intermediary goods and farm operating costs were vulnerable to climate change. R&D or support related to cutting farm households' production costs is judged to be more effective than R&D such as the development of varieties. Nevertheless, because leaf and root vegetables are mostly grown outdoors, reducing their production costs by applying ICT etc. will be limited. Thus, more effective policy directions may be developing appropriate technologies through which farmers can utilize intermediary goods efficiently, and providing services that can decrease farm households' information costs. As for grains with miscellaneous grain crops excluded, R&D is necessary to increase potential production and tolerance of production functions. According to the analysis result for the livestock sector, climate change was forecasted to decrease the average number of livestock in Korean and beef cattle farms and dairy farms, but increase the average number of livestock in layer chicken, broiler and pig farms. Nevertheless, the modification of livestock farms' production structure, including switching livestock species, requires crop farms' considerable fixed costs and time. Therefore, a policy will be needed to lessen the burden due to farm restructuring. Last, the reduction inventory, especially the inventory related to the use of intermediary goods can conflict with incentives for farmers' climate change adaptation. Therefore, to establish effective reduction and adaptation policies, an integrated point of view is necessary in consideration of synergy between reduction and adaptation and trade-off effects.

Researchers: Lee Sangmin, Lim Youngah, Sung Jaehoon, An Hyeonjin, Lee Hyeonjeong, Lee Hyejin Research period: 2017. 1. ~ 2017. 12. E-mail address: smlee@krei.re.kr