신기후체제에 따른 농축산식품부문 영향과 대응전략(2/2차년도)

Abstract

기후변화의 영향은 현재 거의 전 부문에 걸쳐 있으며, 그 파급영향이 점차 확대되고 있어 글로벌 이슈가 되었다. 국제사회는 기후변화에 대응하기 위해 2016년 11월에 신기후체제를 출범시켰다. 우리나라가 신기후체제에 참여하면서 농축산식품부문도 적지 않은 영향을 받을 것으로 예상되고 있다. 우선 할당된 자발적 감축목표를 달성해야 하고, 안정적인 식량공급을 위해 적응능력도 한층 강화해야 한다. 이러한 목표를 효과적으로 이행하기 위해서는 비용 대비 효과적이면서도 실효성 있는 수단들을 선정하여 목표 지향적인 방법으로 추진해 나가야 할 것이다. 그러므로 신기후체제 대응수단에 대한 체계적인 분석을 토대로 적절한 대응전략을 제시하는 연구 수행이 요구된다.

이 보고서는 「신기후체제에 따른 농축산식품부문 영향과 대응전략」에 관한 2년간의 연구 과제 최종 결과물이다. 여기서는 우선 신기후체제에 따른 국가 이행수단의 변화를 살펴보고, 기후변화 완화 및 적응 수단 인벤토리를 구축하였다. 그런 다음, 완화 수단의 한계감축비용 분석과 적응수단의 구조적 모형 분석을 통해 신기후체제 이행에 따른 경제적 효과를 계측하였으며, 더 나아가 상향식 모형을 이용한 정책 시뮬레이션 분석을 통해 경제적 파급효과 또한 분석하였다. 뿐만 아니라 생산자 설문조사를 기초로 기후변화 대응수단의 수용의향 및 애로사항을 조사·분석하여 제시하였다. 자료포락분석을 이용한 농업인의 기후변화 적응능력 분석을 통해 맞춤형 적응정책 추진의 강력한 근거를 도출하였으며, 분석결과를 기초로 기후변화 완화 및 적응 로드맵을 설정하고 전략접근법을 적용한 농축산식품부문 대응전략을 제시하였다.

Background of Research The international society launched a new climate regime in November 2016 to cope with the accelerating climate changes. The new climate regime focuses mainly on the mitigation of greenhouse gases known as the cause of climate change and on the adaptation to minimize adverse effects of climate change. Korea has participated in the new climate regime and established voluntary objectives to cope with climate change. To achieve these objectives, it is necessary to select and faithfully implement cost-effective and feasible means. This research was carried out to analyze spin-off effects of these voluntary objectives on the socio-economy including the agricultural and livestock food sector, and to come up with a systematic and feasible response strategy. In order to achieve the purpose of the research, an inventory of measures for mitigating and adapting to climate change was constructed and their economic effects were analyzed based on empirical data about each measure, in the first year (2017). In the second year (2018), the economic spin-off effects of application of those measures, the farmers’ capacity for those measures, and their adaptability to climate change were analyzed and a strategy for the new climate regime was proposed.

Research Methods Marginal abatement cost was applied for economic analysis of measures to mitigate climate change. A structural model was applied for the vulnerability analysis of agricultural production technology to climate change. A bottom-up model of the agricultural sector was adopted to analyze economic ripple effect of application of mitigating and adjusting measures in response to climate change. And a survey of rice, greenhouse, livestock farmers was conducted. Then the factors of accepting intention of technologies in response to climate change were analyzed through the logit model. Lastly data envelopment analysis was applied to measure adaptation capacity of farmers.

Research Results and Implications Analysis of the marginal reduction cost on the basis of empirical data on the climate change mitigation measures showed that the marginal reduction cost in the energy sector was low in the order of circulation-type water- curtain cultivation system, no tillage, wood pellet heating system, geothermal heat pump, multi-layer insulation curtain, and exhaust heat recovery system to recover exhaust heat from a hot-air heater. It is necessary to carry out measures with low marginal reduction cost preferentially when implementing the reduction policy. On the other hand, even if the marginal reduction cost is low, the farmers’ capacity for accepting the technologies could be low if the initial investment cost is high, so policy efforts are also required to enhance the farmers’ capacity. Analysis of the vulnerability of agricultural production technology to climate change showed the following results: For rice, climate change would result in the decrease in potential yield and for vegetables, the amount of optimal intermediate material input and the farming costs would increase. In the case of other grains, the potential production would decrease and the amount of optimal material input and the production management costs would decrease as well. These results suggest that the characteristics of each item should be taken into consideration in establishing research and development policies. It was estimated that the breeding size of broilers, laying hens, and pigs, which were mostly raised in windowless barns, increased while that of Korean native cattle, beef cattle, and dairy cows decreased due to climate change. Therefore, even for the livestock industry, it is necessary to differentiate the strategies for each type of livestock. A bottom-up model was used to simulate the economic spin-off effects of climate change response measures under the new climate regime. It was analyzed that when the policy goal for each reduction measure was met, the economic effect decreased by 0.035∼0.046%. This suggests that the greenhouse gas reduction policy may be in conflict with economic growth. A survey of the farmers’ willingness to adopt climate change mitigation and adaptation technology showed that the rice farmers' biggest concern was the decline in productivity when the technology was introduced while the willingness of those engaged in controlled farming and livestock farming was affected by the cost factor such as initial installation cost, livestock manure treatment cost, and increased management cost. The cost side factor was analyzed to affect the intention to accept. This implies that, in order to improve the farmers’ capacity for adopting the technology to cope with climate change, it is necessary to provide trainings with respect to the method of introducing the technology and the awareness about the technology, and financial supports for facility installation and operation. As a result of evaluating the adaptive capacity to climate change by region and item, it was shown that the adaptive capacity index of rice was low in Gyeongbuk, Jeonnam and Chungnam regions because the rice farmers in these regions were short of financial capital. In case of vegetables, it was shown that physical capital was lacking in all regions except Gyeonggi and Jeju regions, which was the same for fruit trees in all regions except Gyeongnam, Jeju and Gyeonggi regions. In Gangwon, Jeonbuk, and Chungcheong regions where food crops were mainly grown, natural or physical capital was short. This suggests that regional and product-specific approaches are required, and physical capital (e.g., support for the spread of ICT fusion technology) and financial capital (e.g., support for the expansion of agricultural accident insurance) need to be enhanced, in order to improve the adaptive capacity. The strategy for the agricultural and livestock food sector under the new climate regime has set “the agricultural and livestock food sector that proactively responds to the new climate regime” as its vision for sustainable development from the national perspective. The reduction target for the sector was set as “2.65 million tons”, and the objective of adaptation area was set as “to strengthen the adaptive capacity for stable food supply”. As for implementation strategies, transition from high-energy consumption agriculture to low-carbon farming, turning crises into opportunities, and market-centered reduction were proposed for the mitigation field, and adaptation to minimize adverse impacts, strategies to turn crises into opportunities, and long-term investment were suggested for the adaptation field. As for the key tasks for implementing the strategies in response to the new climate regime, setting new reduction targets and spread of mitigation technologies, preparation of economic/institutional means, education and publicity, and research and development are required in the mitigation field while research and development, economic/institutional means, development and stable supply of agricultural water, and education and publicity are required in the adaptation field.

Researchers: Jeong Hakkyun, Lim Youngah, Sung Jaehoon and Lee Hyunjung Research period: 2018. 1. ∼ 2018. 12. E-mail address: hak8247@krei.re.kr