가축질병의 경제적 영향 분석

Abstract

최근 축산업은 국민소득 증가와 식생활의 서구화로 비약적으로 성장하여 우리 농업에 매우 중요한 부문으로 자리 잡고 있다. 그러나 최근에는 세계적으로 광우병, 소 부루세라, 조류 인플루엔자 등 인체에도 영향을 미칠 수 있는 가축 전염병이 빈번히 발생하여 큰 문제가 되고 있으며, 국제 교역이 점차 증대되고 밀집사육이 보편화됨에 따라 우리나라에도 가축질병의 발생빈도가 점차 늘어나는 추세에 있다.

이 보고서는 늘어나는 가축질병과 관련한 수의역학 자료와 경제적인 분석기법의 결합을 통해 가축질병의 경제적 영향을 계측할 수 있는 모형을 설정하고 이를 이용해서 경제적 파급 효과를 분석하고 있다.

Although there are growing economic concerns on livestock diseases, researches on the issue are limited. In this study, we combined data of livestock diseases with an economic method to build an economic analysis model for measuring the economic impact of livestock diseases. To do so, we developed a spreadsheet model and estimated direct economic losses of individual farms from various livestock diseases. Furthermore, this study analyzed social welfare changes as a result of shifts in the demand and supply of meat due to serious livestock diseases. Using the spreadsheet model, the study found that cattle growers' losses can vary from 500 million won to 67 billion won. Also, the losses of pig and poultry farms are estimated at up to 53 billion and 800 million won each, respectively. The livestock life cycle model, which was developed in the study, estimated disease specific economic losses of farms. For example, the economic losses a livestock farm can suffer from PMWS (Post-Weaning Multisystemic Wasting Syndrome) and calf diarrhea are estimated at 18 million won and 28 million won, respectively. The social welfare analysis shows that the outbreaks of mad cow disease (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy or BSE) in the U.S. and domestic avian influenza (AI) and bovine brucellosis reduce social welfare by up to 385 billion won, 333 billion won, and 342 billion won, respectively. The model developed in the study and the analysis results can be utilized for individual farmers, policy makers, and other researchers on the issues of estimating the economic loss from livestock diseases and of formulating disease prevention policies. Researchers: Song, Joo-Ho, Byung-Joon Woo, Duk Huh, Sun-il Park E-mail address: jhsong@krei.re.kr