중국의 농산물 수급 중장기 전망(2/2차년도)

Abstract

Chinese economy has already experienced internal reform since 1978. In the 21st century, it tries to continue external reform within the trade regime of the World Trade Organization(WTO) which the country joined in 2001. As its economy grew rapidly, Chinese agricultural products also increased. But the share of agriculture in the national economy has kept dwindling. Agriculture also experienced structural changes of expanding labor-intensive sectors, such as vegetables, fruits and meats, at the cost of land-intensive grains. After joining the WTO, increased agricultural imports resulted in agricultural trade deficits since 2004. This study analyzed the current demand and supply trends of major grains, vegetables, fruits and meats as well as their future prospects. The projection based on analyses shows that China may possibly maintain the equilibrium of demand and supply for most agricultural products in the mid- and long run. But it must still depend upon the imports of some land-intensive agricultural products such as soybeans and feed grains from abroad. China has enhanced its market economic system even in the rural and agricultural sector since its joining the WTO. The government recognized the urban-rural income disparity as a significant social threat. It tried to solve the problem by increasing agricultural exports, which requires high quality and safety standards for food and agricultural products. Currently, most developed countries prohibit the imports of fruits and meats from China because of the Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) reasons. It is necessary to build a system for predicting Chinese agricultural situations by collecting and analyzing related data and information. Korean agriculture cannot help getting impacted by the changes in Chinese agricultural conditions. Some international organizations, such as the OECD, have already established outlook models for Chinese agriculture and have been storing up forecast data. The results of their estimations, however, are insufficient to be utilized as the information befitting Korean agriculture since Korea has some unique characteristics in its agricultural structure. As a result, we should establish our own model and forecast systems for the Chinese agriculture in the long run. More studies and analyses are deemed necessary for comparing the competitive advantages in the agricultural sector prior to the signing of a free trade agreement (FTA) between Korea and China. Some other research topics such as the strategies for entering into agricultural niche-markets in China or the surveys on Chinese production belts for major agricultural products also warrant further study.

Researchers: Myong-Keun Eor, Chung-Gil Chung, Bae-Sung Kim, Hyun-Ju Lee, Jing-Hu Li E-mail address: myongeor@krei.re.kr