교토의정서 이행에 따른 농업부문 대응전략

Abstract

최근 UN 기후변화에 관한 정부간협의체의 지구온난화에 대한 평가보고서가 발표된 이후 대부분의 국가가 온실가스 감축을 국가 핵심과제로 다루고 있다. 국가별 여건에 따라 온실가스를 의무적으로 감축해야 하는 교토의정서 이행과 관련, 우리나라는 2012년까지 감축의무가 면제되었으나, 2013년부터 시작되는 제2차 공약기간부터는 온실가스 의무감축 이행국이 될 가능성이 높아졌다. 따라서 산업부문별로 온실가스 의무감축에 대비한 적절한 대응책 마련이 당면과제로 부각되고 있다. 농업부문의 경우 축산부문은 사육두수 증가로 메탄가스 발생이 증가하나 경종부문은 경지면적 감소와 친환경농업의 확산 등으로 온실가스 배출량이 감소할 것으로 전망되어 온실가스 감축 의무 이행은 새로운 기회와 도전을 제공하게 될 것이다. 이 보고서는 기후변화협약의 농업부문 파급영향과 대응전략과 관련하여 2006년도에 수행한 ‘기후변화협약에 따른 농업부문 파급영향 분석’의 후속연구로 「교토의정서 이행에 따른 농업부문 대응전략」을 제시한 기본 연구의 최종 결과물이다. 이를 위해 온실가스 의무감축에 대비하여 주요국의 사례를 벤치마킹하여 농업부문의 단계별 대응전략을 담은 로드맵과 핵심 실행과제 등이 제시되어 있다.

The comprehensive consideration of the internal and external changes in conditions pertaining to the post-2012 Kyoto Protocol scheme indicates that Korea is highly likely to be mandated to reduce greenhouse gas emission from the second commitment period(2013~2017). In the agricultural sector, greenhouse gas emission has been on the decrease, and it also has carbon sinks. Therefore the new emission cut mandate given to Korea under Kyoto Protocol could serve as a good opportunity depending on how we are reacting. This study is a follow-up of the analysis of the impact of the Kyoto Protocol implementation on the agricultural sector and has the purpose of proposing systematic and step-by-step responding strategies in preparation for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. In the introduction of the report, the need of the study, purpose and scope of the study, review of literature, and study methods are described. Chapter 2 explains the details of the Kyoto Protocol and the implementation mechanism, discussion trends and forecasts of the Post-2012 scheme. Chapter 3 takes a look at the greenhouse gas generation in the agricultural sector and management means. Chapter 4 analyzes the impact of the mandatory greenhouse gas emission cut on the agricultural sector and the potential capability of greenhouse gas reduction by emission cut means. The impact on the agricultural sector is briefly summarized using the result of the first year analysis. Chapter 5 shows the examples of reactions by major countries related to the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol including Japan, Denmark, German, Britain, and the United States where the reduction mandate will apply from 2008. Chapter 6 sets forth the agricultural sector's basic direction of reactions to mandatory reduction, practical strategies, and core tasks. Lastly, Chapter 7 delivers summary and conclusion. The highlights of the study are summarized as follows: First, the participation of the agricultural sector in the emission trading program is found to increase earnings and boost national economy. In the short term, however, and if carbon tax is imposed, the horticultural sectors including greenhouse vegetable gardening, which are highly dependent on fossil fuels, will be put under great pressure of growing management costs. For these, proper responding measures are needed. Second, regarding the mandatory emission reduction under the Kyoto Protocol, major countries (Japan, the United States, Denmark, Germany and Britain) have marked significant achievements with the agricultural sector's voluntary participation to meet the goal of greenhouse gas reduction. Except for Denmark among the concerned countries, the proportion of the agricultural sector in the greenhouse gas emission is less than 7%, but the agricultural sector takes up a large portion of methane and nitrogen dioxide emission. These countries do not require the agricultural sector to manage their greenhouse gas emission in the form of mandatory requirement. Instead they encourage the agricultural sector to adjust and manage the greenhouse gas generated on the a self-regulatory basis. The representative measures taken by the agricultural sector of these countries to cut greenhouse gas emission include facility support, fostering of organic farming, utilization of bio-energy, R and they are found to have the potential to make considerable contribution to greenhouse gas emission cut. Fourth, systematic and step-by-step strategies for the agricultural sector are presented regarding the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. In relation to this, five basic strategic directions are proposed including using the implementation mandate as an opportunity to build a sustainable agricultural system; proper combination between agricultural policy and greenhouse gas reduction policy; active and proactive response to internal and external negotiations; scientific analysis of greenhouse gas emission and absorption volume; and adaptation to global warming. Practical strategies will be in place under the 3-step approach by period. The first period of 2008 to 2012 period will lay down the foundation. The second period of 2013 to 2018 will make a leap forward, and the last period of 2019 to 2030 will cement and finalize the achievements obtained so far. Fifth, the core tasks of practical strategies are presented. They include the active pursuit of the 4th comprehensive measures of responding to climate change, the program development for active use of the Kyoto mechanism, the fostering of sound organic farming, active participation in onshore and offshore negotiations regarding the climate change convention, continuous effort in the adaptation sector, systematic R&D efforts, and the establishment of an integrated greenhouse gas management system. Lastly, with the global warming emerging as a hot issue at home and abroad, the agriculture should be recognized as an infrastructure industry for effective management of greenhouse gas emission. To this end, dedicated personnel and organization should be expanded, and proper role sharing and use of experts among related organizations should be sought for active participation in the discussions on national tasks setting for climate change management. The study does not estimate marginal costs by greenhouse gas reduction means and does not determine the priority among policy measures. These areas should be covered by future studies. In addition, an empirical study needs to be conducted to estimate actual reduction volume by applying the economics engineering method and the cost effective analysis by reduction means.