동아시아 FTA 대비 농업 부문 연구(1/2차연도)

Abstract

동아시아 국가들은 유럽, 북미, 남미 등 주요 경제권 국가들에 비해 지역무역협정에 뒤늦게 참여하였다. 동아시아 국가들이 지역무역협정에 적극적으로 나서기 시작한 것은 1990년대 말에 발생한 아시아 지역의 외환위기 이후로 볼 수 있다. 따라서 동아시아 국가들은 지역무역협정 체결 수나 심화 정도에 있어서도 다른 지역에 비해 뒤지고 있다. 세계적인 지역주의의 확산은 유럽 통합에 이어 북미와 남미 국가들의 경제통합 움직임으로 이어지고 있다. 유럽의 지역협력은 단일시장의 완성에 가까운 유럽연합으로 발전하면서 경제는 물론 정치, 문화, 외교, 안보 등 다양한 분야의 협력과 이해의 증진을 통해 역내 화합과 안정에 기여하고 있다. 이러한 지역주의 확산에 대응하고 동아시아 역내 경제협력을 강화하기 위한 다양한 논의가 진행되고 있다. 현재 ASEAN+3 체제가 주도하고 있는 동아시아공동체 구상은 경제 활성화는 물론 지역 안정을 위해서도 유럽과 같은 심화된 지역협력체로 발전될 필요가 있다. 이 보고서는 동아시아 국가들이 추구해야 할 지역통합의 초기 단계를 자유무역협정(FTA)으로 보고 FTA 추진 과정에서 농업부문의 문제점과 역할에 대해 분석하고 있다. 이 보고서는 2년에 걸쳐 진행될 연구의 1차연도 연구결과로 동아시아 지역협력의 논의 과정과 발전 방향, 유럽 지역협력의 예, 동아시아 국가별 농업구조와 경쟁력, 농산물 교역현황 및 잠재력 등을 분석하였다.

Based on the lessons learned from the EU's experience, East Asia needs to accomplish social integration with respect to cultural and historic discord to lead its nations to prosperity. Therefore, it is important to establish economic cooperation and integration in the form of FTAs as a first step to bring about full integration. As for the FTA, it is desirable to facilitate the existing regional free trade agreements within the Southeast and East Asian forums such as APEC and ASEAN; and the ASEAN Plus Three is more applicable rather than EAS. In the case of Korea, it is necessary to achieve NEAFTA and link it to AFTA for EAFTA. As a matter of fact, however, it is highly possible to establish EAFTA through the ASEAN Plus One. In that case, ASEAN would play an important role as a predominant player. The agriculture of East Asia possesses several common characteristics which include a poor agricultural infrastructure system and a similar pattern of structural changes. The per capita arable land is 0.18ha for ASEAN, 0.12ha for China, 0.038ha for Korea, and 0.037ha for Japan. In addition, ASEAN and China are net exporters of agricultural commodities in recent years. However, the ASEAN's volume of agricultural exports is much higher than that of China, and it is anticipated that the export potential of ASEAN would be greater than that of China as well. The agriculture of East Asia shows that the production ratio of grains to other commodities such as fruit and vegetables is changing dramatically in recent years, and this change is geared to value-added production. Thus, the fruit and vegetable industry will face more competitive markets in East Asia, and grain imports from other nations will increase due to a decrease in the East Asian production. In the case of livestock, East Asia would focus on small or medium-size livestock industries such as the pork and poultry industry rather than the beef and cattle industry because of limited resources. Furthermore, these trends will persist in the near future. As a result, a more competitive trade market will emerge in East Asia. According to the results of an analysis on the competitiveness within the East Asian market, Chinese agricultural products except chicken are highly competitive in the Korean and Japanese markets. In addition, the ASEAN's competitiveness of rice and corn products is increasing as well, thus the competitive relationship between China and ASEAN will be more complicated in the two import markets. However, in the Chinese and ASEAN import markets, Korean and Japanese agricultural exports are negligible. Meanwhile, Chinese corn and rice exports to ASEAN are decreasing, but ASEAN's exports of corn and rice to China are increasing, thus a complementary trade relation is developing. There will be a few difficulties establishing the economic integration. To avoid the worst possible role that agriculture might play in the negotiation, a cooperative and positive role of agriculture is demanded, which includes reforming the domestic regulations based on the global level. Furthermore, various market openings that would have impact on the East Asian agriculture will cause different economic and social problems. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare for the changes adopting a new trade environment. When it comes to trade, various non-tariff barriers should be eliminated, and useful information has to be shared within East Asia along with the development of technical standards for agricultural commodities. In addition, the existing quarantine procedure and customs, commodity standards, labeling, and other important things should be considered to increase the volume and value of agricultural trade within East Asia. As an East Asian FTA would inevitably promote agricultural trade within East Asia as well as with other countries, food safety will become a more important issue. Thus, persuasive quarantine standards must be proposed to prevent unnecessary social and economic losses within the East Asian markets. Moreover, consistent economic cooperation and complementary trade relation should be maintained and developed as well. As for the means of compensation for various market openings, it is necessary to launch various economic cooperation activities for rural areas and agricultural industries within East Asia. Furthermore, technical cooperation, labor exchange, natural resource management, and investment in marketing and processing sectors must be considered to accomplish the ultimate objective of being a “Single Market."”